Climate change forecast points to decline in coffee production

Coffee production is expected to drop enormously in the east African region due to environmental degradation, researchers have said. Addressing coffee farmers and traders, the Director of Coffee Research Foundation Mr Joseph Kimemia said despite the growing demand for coffee, low yields are expected. He said climate change will affect both arabica and robusta producers.

He said the rising temperatures are expected to render certain producing areas less suitable or even completely unsuitable for coffee growing, meaning production may have to shift backwards as incidences of pests and diseases will increase whereas coffee quality is likely to suffer, both factors that may limit the viability of current high quality produce.

“More coffee may need to be grown under irrigation, thereby increasing pressure on scarce water resources. All the foregoing will increase the cost of production whereas in the future fewer parts of the world may be suitable for coffee production,” Mr Kimemia said during a stakeholders workshop organised by Livelihood Enterprises for Agric Development in Kampala on Tuesday.

According to the latest research, coffee consumption has gone up by 2.4 percent per annum on the world market despite a drop of 10million bags in production due to climate change among other issues.

“If we do not fight to curb the situation, by the year 2050, we shall have a deficit of about 30 million bags,” he said adding, “The already evident growth in concentration could become even more pronounced, bringing with it an increased risk of high volatility”.

According to the Uganda Coffee Development Authority [UCDA] report for coffee year 2009/10, 217,809 60-kilo bags worth US $ 21.8million were exported in March indicating a 15% to 9% drop in volumes and value relative to the same month last year.

The current change in global climate is largely due to the burning of fossil energy (coal, oil, natural gas) and to the mineralization of organic matter as a result of land use. These processes have been caused by mankind’s exploitation of fossil resources, clearing of natural vegetation (forests) and use of these soils for agriculture.

These activities have primarily led to a measurable increase in the carbon dioxide (CO2) content of the atmosphere, an increase that results in global warming. This is so because CO2 hinders the reflection of sunlight back into space, thereby trapping more of it in the Earth’s atmosphere.

Events such as floods and droughts that are expected to become more frequent and more severe as a result environmental degradation. A quick prediction of their impact will affect yields due to change in seasonal climate, reduce production potential in relation to factors such as yield, land availability and longer/shorter growing seasons.