Hold on to your food, meteorologists advise

The meteorology department sound out a strong warning of an impeding drought that could cause famine if farmers don’t take necessary precautions, writes Joseph Miti

The weather in 2011 could be grim as the moderate La Niña conditions, which have been evolving since July 2010, are now well established, according to the El Niño/La Niña Update issued by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
The update suggests that La Niña conditions are likely to continue at least until the first quarter of the year.

The term La Niña is opposite of El Niño. La Niña is used to describe the periodic building up of unusually cold waters in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. On the other hand, El Niño, (Spanish word for “the Christ-child”), refers to the periodic building up of a large pool of unusually warm waters in the same region of the ocean basin. Thus, La Niña and El Niño are phenomena that periodically occur (on average every two to five years) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean region.

It has been observed that during El Niño and La Niña events, world-wide weather and climate extremes such as droughts, floods, cold/hot spells, tropical cyclones, among others are common, even in some regions that are very far away from the Pacific Ocean basin.

Such weather and climate extremes are often associated with far reaching socio-economic impacts including loss of life and property, mass migration of people and animals, lack of water, energy, food and other basic needs of human kind. Major La Niña events recorded since 1950 are: 1950, 1954, 1955/56, 1962, 1964, 1967, 1970/71, 1973/74, 1984/85, 1988/89, 1995/96, 1999/2000, 2007.

According to Mr Michael Nkalubo of the Department of Meteorology, Ministry of Water and Environment, Uganda should expect potential impacts of the prevailing La Niña event on the climate.

Mr Nkalubo says the normally dry season of January to February is expected to be longer and drier than normal.
It is expected that sunny and dry conditions characterised by higher than normal daytime temperatures will occur over the entire country during the period December-January-February 2010.

“The rainfall during the first rainy season of March to May 2011 is expected to be suppressed (below normal). The areas which are likely to be more affected are cattle corridor areas running from Mbarara up to Karamoja region,” Mr Nkalubo says.
Impacts

He says, in general, the occurrence of this moderate to strong La Niña is likely to have some implications on various socio-economic activities in the country and the region at large.

According to him, the negative potential impacts will include: failure of crops, low water levels in dams and lakes which can lead to severe power rationing and the associated large economic losses and rural-urban water shortages for both domestic and industrial use.

Others are lack of pasture and water for animals that may lead to severe conflicts between pastoral communities; lack of food leading to famine and the associated health problems and fire outbreaks in forests, grasslands and settlements.

The weather outlook shows that La Niña event is likely to increase the level of vulnerability of many people in disaster areas far beyond their coping capacities if this prediction is not integrated into agriculture and food security, and other disaster management programmes of the most vulnerable sectors in the country.

It may be recalled that the 2007 La Niña-related drought had severe impacts on both human and animal lives and many social-economic activities particularly in the eastern region.

What next?

Mr Nkalubo advises that there is need for action in sufficient time and in an appropriate manner so as to reduce the possibility of personal injury, loss of life and damage to property.