Heavier rains expected in the Sept-Dec season

September to December constitutes the second major rainfall season in most parts of Uganda. In a review of the state of the global climate system, it was observed there are major physical conditions likely to influence the weather conditions. Based on the above considerations, Uganda National Meteorological Authority has come up with the following forecast.

The major physical conditions likely to influence the weather conditions in Uganda in the September-December 2014 period include: Possible development of cyclones over the western Indian Ocean, anomalies in sea surface temperatures over eastern equatorial Pacific region and the Atlantic Ocean, and the evolution of the El Niño conditions. The breakdown of the forecast for each region is given as follows:

WESTERN REGION
South Western (Kisoro, Kabale, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Isingiro, Ibanda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi and Kasese districts)
This area is receiving isolated showers and thunderstorm, which signify the onset of seasonal rains. From early September, the steady seasonal rains will set in. The steady rains are expected to intensify with peak rains around mid-October to early November and reduce around early/mid-December. Overall, near-normal rains are expected.

Central Western (Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge Kibaale, Hoima, Buliisa and Masindi districts)
Northern parts of this region, especially areas of Masindi and some parts of Hoima districts, received a substantial amount of rainfall in June-August. Now, the whole region is experiencing outbreak of showers and thunderstorms that signify the onset of seasonal rains.
The peak rains are expected around mid-October/early November. The cessation of rains will be around mid-December. Overall, the region is expected to receive near-normal tending to above-normal rains.

North Western (Moyo, Arua, Maracha, Nebbi, Okoro, Adjumani, Yumbe, Koboko and Zombo districts)
The region is experiencing its main rainy season since June with continuous outbreak of showers and thunderstorm. Steady rains set in by early September with the main peak occurring late October to early November.
Thereafter, a sharp decline is expected to occur around late November. Overall, near-normal to above-normal rains are expected.

CENTRAL REGION
Western parts of Central (Rakai, Lyantonde, Lwengo, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Sembabule, Mubende, Kiboga, Kyankwanzi, Luwero, Nakaseke and Nakasongola districts)

The region has started experiencing isolated outbreaks of light rains and thunderstorms. Steady seasonal rains are to set in around mid-September and reach the peak levels late October to early November. Cessation of the rains will be around mid/late December. In general, there is a high chance of near-normal rains.

Eastern parts of Central (Mukono, Buikwe and Kayunga districts)
The area is receiving outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms punctuated with short-lived dry spells, which will continue up to mid-September when normal seasonal rains are expected to set in.
Thereafter, the rains will intensify and peak late October/early November. By late November, a steady decline of rains punctuated by dry spells is expected and cease around mid-December. Overall, there are high chances for near-normal to above-normal rains over most parts.

LAKE VICTORIA BASIN
Central and Western Lake Victoria Basin (Kalangala, Buvuma, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Mpigi, Butambala, Gomba and Mityana districts)
There have been occasional outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms punctuated by dry spells since early July. The showers and thunderstorm will continue to early September when steady rains are expected to set in.
The peak occurs around late October to mid-November. Rains cease around late December. Overall, there is a high chance of near-normal to above-normal rains in this region.

Eastern Lake Victoria Basin (Jinja, Mayuge, South Bugiri and Busia districts)
Currently, there are some showers and thunderstorms over several parts. These are expected to continue until early September when steady rains are expected to set in and reach peak around mid/late October. The season is expected to end in mid-December. Overall, near-normal to above-normal rains are expected over most parts.

EASTERN REGION
South Eastern (Kamuli, Iganga, North Bugiri, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro and Tororo districts)
There have been isolated outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms since July. Steady seasonal rains are expected by early September reaching the peak levels mid-October to late November and cease around late December. In general, near-normal to above-normal rains are expected to prevail over this region.

Eastern Central (Pallisa, Budaka, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Bududa, Kapchorwa, Kumi, Kaberamaido, Soroti, Serere, Amolatar, Butaleja, Bulambuli, Kween, Bukwo, Bukedea and Ngora districts)
This region has been experiencing outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms since June with isolated cases of storms reaching flood levels along the slopes of Mt. Elgon. Steady seasonal rains are expected to set in by early September reaching the peak around mid to late October.
Thereafter, the rains are expected to decline steadily with cessation expected around mid December. Overall, near normal to above normal rains are expected over this region.

North Eastern (Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Abim, Otuke, Napak, Amudat, Amuria, and Kaabong districts)
The region has been experiencing its seasonal rainfall since June, which was punctuated by short-lived dry spells over several parts. The seasonal rains are expected to reach peak levels in mid to late October.
Thereafter, a decline in rains is expected and stop around mid/late November. There are high chances for near-normal rains.

NORTHERN REGION
Northern (Gulu, Apac, Lira, Kitgum, Pader, Amuru, Lamwo, Nwoya, Oyam, Kole, Dokolo and Kiryandongo districts)
The region is experiencing its major rainy season with isolated showers and thunderstorm in several parts. The current moderate seasonal rains are expected to continue up to early October when the peak of the seasonal rains is expected to set in.
The decline is expected thereafter with the cessation around late November to early December. Near-normal to above-normal rains are expected.

Advice for farmers

The predicted rainfall season is expected to be long. Therefore, farmers are advised to do the following:
* Plant long-maturing crops like millet, rice, sorghum, maize, cassava, sweet potatoes at the start of rains and fast-maturing crops such as beans, tomatoes, vegetables later on as rains progress
* Prune crops like fruit trees (avocado, apples, mangoes, oranges), bananas and coffee trees
* Construct drainage and diversion channels on crop plots and parcels in case of heavy rains
* Put in place soil conservation structures to prevent soil erosion for those on slopes and highlands
* Plant pastures and trees and improve the existing ones
* Guard against tick-borne diseases and worms

In general, farmers are advised to make use of the seasonal rains by optimising crop yield through appropriate land-use management. They are also encouraged to plant enough food for both domestic use and sale to emerging markets in the neighbouring countries.