Weather forecast for March-May

The onset of the rains in Uganda as the rest of East Africa is influenced by conditions over the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans as well as the major physical features and large inland water bodies. Based on these considerations, Uganda National Meteorological Authority has come up with the following forecast.

March to May constitutes the first major rainy season of the year, that is eagerly anticipated by farmers so they can plan their planting and other farming activities.

Overall, there is an increased likelihood of near normal rainfall over several parts of the country. The onset of seasonal rains is expected to be characterised by severe thunderstorms and hailstorms over isolated parts of the country. The breakdown of the forecast for each region is given as follows:

EASTERN UGANDA
Eastern Lake Victoria and South Eastern (Jinja, Kamuli, Iganga, Bugiri, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, Busia and Tororo districts). There have been dry spells since January but in late February, there were isolated outbreaks of light showers associated with destructive storms over few places. This situation is expected to continue until the third week of March, when steady rains get established.
The peak is expected in early April with cessation in early to mid June. Overall, there is a high chance of near-normal rainfall.

Eastern Central (Pallisa, Budaka, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Bududa, Kapchorwa, Kumi, Kaberamaido, Soroti, Serere, Amolatar, Butaleja, Bulambuli, Kween, Bukwo, Bukedea and Ngora districts). After experiencing dry conditions in January, there were isolated light showers by the end of February.
The light showers, with occasional violent thunderstorms and hailstorms, will continue until mid March when steady rains set in. The peak rains will be around mid April.
Thereafter, a moderate relaxation is expected around mid June. Overall, near-normal, with slight tendency to above-normal rain expected.

Eastern North (Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Abim, Eastern Napak, Amudat, Amuria, and Kaabong districts). The dry conditions reached drought levels in several areas.
But in early to mid April, steady rains are expected, reaching the peak in mid-May, then moderate relaxation around mid-June. Overall, there are high chances for below-normal rains.

NORTHERN UGANDA
Northern East (Lira, Kitgum, Agago, Otuke, Pader, Kole, Dokolo and Kaberamaido districts). There have been dry conditions since January. However, sporadic light showers are currently being experienced in isolated locations.
This is expected to continue to mid-March when steady rains get established. Moderate relaxation of rains is expected around mid June. Overall, near-normal rainfall is expected during this season.

Northern Central (Gulu, Apac, Lamwo, Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam and Kiryandongo districts). There are isolated light showers which are expected to continue up to the onset of seasonal rains in mid March.
The rains will be interrupted by short-lived dry spells and then a relaxation around mid-June. Overall, near-normal rainfall is expected.

Northern West: (Moyo, Arua, Maracha, Nebbi, Okoro, Adjumani, Yumbe, Koboko, Terego and Zombo districts). The region is experiencing isolated light showers with prolonged dry spells.
Mid-March is when the seasonal rains are expected to establish, and the peak aroundmid/late April, and relax around mid-June. There is likely to be interruptions by short dry spells. There is a high chance of near-normal rainfall .

WESTERN UGANDA
Western South (Kisoro, Kabale, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Isingiro, Ibanda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi and Kasese districts). The isolated outbreaks of light showers and thunderstorm over few places, symbolise the onset of steady rains.
They are likely to be violent winds and hailstorms, which may be destructive to crops and property. The rains will peak in early to mid April and the cessation in early to mid June. Overall, the region is expected to receive near-normal rains.

Western Central (Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Kibaale, Hoima, Buliisa and Masindi districts). It has been relatively dry since January. Currently, there are isolated outbreaks of showers accompanied by destructive wind storms.
These will continue up to mid March, when steady rains establish. The peak is expected in early/mid April and the cessation around mid June. Overall, the region is expected to receive near-normal tending slightly to above-normal rainfall.

CENTRAL UGANDA AND LAKE VICTORIA BASIN
Central and Western Lake Victoria Basin (Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Eastern Masaka, Lwengo, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Gomba, and Mityana districts). The region is currently receiving intermittent light showers, which are expected to continue to mid-March when the steady rains set in.
The seasonal rains are expected to be accompanied by strong and destructive winds as well as hailstorms. Thereafter, rains will intensify with the peak occurring around mid-April. The cessation is expected in early to mid-June. Overall, there are high chances of near-normal rainfall.

Central West (Nakasongola, Luwero, Kyankwanzi, Nakaseke Kiboga, Mubende, Sembabule, Western Masaka, Lyantonde, and Rakai districts). There are isolated light showers associated with occasional strong winds and hailstorms, which will continue to mid-March when steady rains start.
The peak is expected around mid April. However, short-lived dry spells are expected to interrupt the seasonal rains. By mid-May, the rains will relax around early/mid-June. Overall, there are high chances of near-normal rainfall over this region.

Central East (Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, Buvuma districts). In this region, there are currently isolated light showers and thunderstorms with occasional hailstorms, which are the gradual onset of seasonal rains.
The peak is expected around early/mid-April, with cessation occurring around early to mid-June. These rains may be interrupted by occasional dry spells. Overall, near-normal rainfall is expected.