Long dry spells predicted in central, western Uganda

Meteorologists have predicted dry spells in the Lake Victoria basin and western region, and more rain in northern and eastern Uganda.
The period, June to August, is a major rainy season in the north and north east, and a dry season in other parts of the country.

“Overall, there is an increased likelihood of near-normal tending to above-normal rainfall over the northern and some parts of eastern region, while the rest of the country is expected to experience dry seasonal conditions punctuated with occasional light rainfall,” reads a statement issued by Uganda National Meteorological Authority.

Central and western regions have been experiencing considerable rains since March. This latest climate outlook for June-August is contrary to the El Niño conditions earlier predicted.
El Niño is the opposite of La Niña—the former comes with heavy rains and the latter is associated with dry conditions.
According to UNMA ,the latest climate outlook is based on predictions approved by World Metrological Organisation and other world forecasting centres.
The western and central regions are now receiving declining light rains, which are likely to go on up to mid/end of June when dry conditions are expected to set in.

The northern and north eastern regions are experiencing seasonal rains, which are expected to pick up and continue.
“Overall, there are high chances of [northern and north eastern Uganda] receiving near-normal tending to above-normal rains,” adds the UNMA statement.
There are two major rainy seasons (March-May) and (September–December), but due to climate change, the rains either delay or come unexpectedly. A case in point is June 2012 when rains fell at a time the dry season .

Rainfall distribution per district

Kisoro, Kabale ,Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungumo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Isingiro, Ibanda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi, Kasese. There are high chances of normal dry conditions throughout the season.
Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Masindi, Buliisa, Hoima, Kibaale. There are high chances of near-normal dry conditions with isolated water stress.

Nakasongola, Luweero, Kyankwanzi, Nakaseke, Kiboga, Mubende, Ssembabule, western Masaka, Lyantonde, Rakai. These will experience drier than normal conditions with significant water stress over most parts.
Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, Buvuma. These have high chances of near-normal with a tendency to below-normal rain.
Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, eastern Masaka, Lwengo, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansibi, Gomba and Mityana. These have high chances of average dry conditions with localised water stress.

Jinja, Bugiri, Busia, Mayuge, Kamuli, Iganga, Namutumba, Tororo, Busia. These should expect near-normal dry season with isolated cases of water stress.
Pallisa, Budaka, Mbale, Bududa, Kumi, Soroti, Kapchorwa, Sironko, Bulambuli. These have high chances of near-normal dry conditions.
Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiriprit, Abim, Otuke, Napak, Amudat, Kaabong. These have chances of near-normal with a tendency to below-normal rains.

Moyo, Yumbe, Adjumani, Arua, Nebbi, Koboko, Zombo. Near-normal rains are expected as a continuity of the rainfall season up to the end of August.
Lira, Agago, Kitgum, Pader, Dokolo, Gulu, Apac, Kiryandongo, Lamwo, Amuru, Nwoya, Oyam, Kiryandongo. Near-normal tending to above-normal rains are expected.