On the brink: Which way for Kenya?
Kenya Opposition supporters hold up bricks as they block streets and burn tires during a protest in Kisumu, Kenya, on Wednesday. AFP PHOTO
Kenyans remain uncertain of who their next president will be and what will come of the ongoing political and legal showdown in their country, more than two months after the country went to the polls to elect a new leader in an election whose results were annulled.
A verbal war has since the September 1 ruling by the country’s Supreme Court ensued on the streets, in the media and Parliament.
On the face of it, what is seemingly a democratic contest is not good only for Kenya but the East African region, especially that it is a departure from 2007/2008, where when faced with the same questions Kenyans picked weapons and started killing each other. The recent happenings in Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan are not encouraging. So far, Kenya must be applauded. But what next?
The ruling Jubilee party supporters argue that the country should go on with the October 26 election, which they are likely to win and then assert their power.
The announcement this week by main opposition National Super Alliance (Nasa) that they had withdrawn the candidature of former prime minister Raila Odinga and former vice president Kalonzo Musyoka as presidential candidate and deputy presidential candidate, had dented the hopes of this particular election and it looked like president Uhuru Kenyatta would have to relinquish power to National Assembly speaker Justin Muturi as the country organised fresh elections in 60 or 90 days, depending on the varying interpretations.
The quick reading into Nasa’s decision was that the coalition aimed at extending the election timetable to buy time for it to push for reforms, especially the change of guard at the Independent Election and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).
A Supreme Court judgment from 2013 shows that if a contender quits a rerun after an invalidated election, then parties should return to a new process of nomination and this is what Nasa sought to achieve when the coalition made their announcement.
Then the High Court, a day after Nasa’s announcement, ruled in favour of the Thirdway Alliance presidential candidate, Dr Ekuru Aukot, that he be included in the repeat poll.
Dr Aukot had earlier moved to the Supreme Court seeking an interpretation of the meaning “fresh elections” as ordered by the court under article 140(3), but was sent back to the lower court by Chief Justice David Maraga.
Court entered a judgment in his favour and what that essentially means is that all the candidates in the annulled presidential poll are now free to participate in the October 26 exercise. This also means that the October 26 poll can go ahead with or without the participation of Mr Odinga and his coalition.
The rebirth
After the 2007/8 violence in which as many as 1,400 people died in the span of 59 days, with more than 600,000 people displaced from their homes, Kenyans went about reforming their judiciary and other institutions.
A new constitution, which came into force in 2010, heralded as the rebirth of Kenya or as politicians on either side of the political divide put it, “the birth of the second republic”.
But even the wonderful constitution seems to have failed to provide lasting solutions to the problems that have long divided Kenyans.
The historic decision to cancel president Kenyatta’s victory after Odinga’s successful petition is seen as one of the stages in Kenya’s democratisation process. Some political analysts have argued that what is happening in the country now is not a crisis but a test of the strength of Kenya’s institutions. Failure to navigate through will imply a return to the dark Moi era or worse, but if Kenya sails through successively, then it could be on the way to the biblical Promised Land.
There are also calls for political dialogue to find an amicable solution out of the current impasse and these have already gained traction with some senior leaders in the country offering leadership. The dialogue will, however, need a departure from the hardline stance taken by either side on the political divide.
At the turn of this week, Kenyans who had picketed and engaged in other forms of protest with minimal violence were slapped with a ban. Citing the Public Order Act, Interior acting cabinet secretary Fred Matiangi outlawed anti-IEBC demos in central business districts of Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu.
Raila’s chances
The odds. Whatever happens, it looks like 73-year-old Odinga has most to lose in this process. There is a plethora of fresh questions that emerge regarding whether Mr Odinga can still triumph. Looked at more broadly, does an opposition candidate stand a better chance of winning in the first round or a re-run?
Power of incumbency. Many observers believe that it is easier to surprise an incumbent in Africa in the first round, but that once the election goes into a re-run or second round, the incumbent will have extra time and incentive to mobilise State institutions, finances, and even whatever evil forces he may have at his disposal, to overwhelm the opposition.
Lessons from Zimbabwe. In 2008, Zimbabwe’s opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai defeated President Robert Mugabe in the first round of the presidential election but did not gain an outright majority against Mr Mugabe, who has been power since independence from Britain in 1980. What happened next is akin to what Kenya is descending into, albeit slowly. Mr Mugabe’s team went to work, unleashing violence on opposition supporters. More than 100 people were killed and thousands displaced.
