Will Besigye unseat Muntu through Amuriat?

Founding president. Dr Kizza Besigye (L) and Mr Amuriat (R) during a press conference in Kampala recently. PHOTO BY ABUBAKER LUBOWA

When 1,200 Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) delegates converge at the Namboole Conference Hall for the election of a party president on Friday November 24, voting will be by and large a referendum between incumbent Gen Mugisha Muntu and founding president Col Dr Kizza Besigye.

Though Dr Besigye will not be on the ballot, he has left no one guessing about the candidate of his choice being former Kumi County MP Patrick Amuriat Oboi, whose name has been adoringly abbreviated as POA to come up with a campaign buzzword.

For this election, Dr Besigye has come out of the shell and taken sides in a contest for the topmost party position, unlike the past when he chose to marshal his support quietly.

With Dr Besigye and FDC secretary general Nandala Mafabi backing Amuriat, the former Kumi MP has morphed into a proxy candidate of sorts.
Opposition Chief Whip Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda, who heads the Elect Muntu Task Force, says Amuriat is a “candidate of forces that do not value the contribution Muntu has made to the party”.
“I don’t have any doubt that in this election Amuriat is not a candidate of himself. He is a candidate of some forces…whether it is Dr Besigye or Nandala. I would not be surprised if Amuriat is viewed by the public as a proxy candidate,” Mr Ssemujju says.
Mr Amuriat shrugs off the tag of being a “Besigye proxy”, saying his record as an MP for 15 years gives him enough confidence to be a candidate of his own.

“I have been an MP for 15 years. That is not something that can be easily achieved. For people to think that without Dr Besigye, I cannot think for myself is really underrating me. Anybody who thinks that I am working for Dr Besigye is insulting me. I am a leader in my own rights,” Mr Amuriat says.

During the acrimonious 2012 election between Gen Muntu and Nandala Mafabi, Dr Besigye kept his cards close to his chest, preferring not to publicly declare support for either candidate though those in the know say he was the force behind the Budadiri West MP.

When Gen Muntu defeated Mr Mafabi by 22 votes, a tribunal that was set up to look into the grievances of Mr Mafabi’s camp controversially recommended that a re-run for the party presidential election be organised.

It was Dr Besigye who had advised that the election for party president be reorganised for the sake of “party harmony” when he was interviewed at his Kasangati home by the five-man committee chaired by Ladislaus Rwakafuuzi. That recommendation was overturned by another committee of party lawyers.

For the election on November 24, the other two candidates in the race, Daniel Matsiko and Moses Byamugisha, are also-rans who will be looking at the future and not the election on Friday. Kawempe South MP Mubarak Munyagwa pulled out of the race in favour of Mr Amuriat.

There has never been love lost between Dr Besigye’s supporters and Gen Muntu’s fan base and the animosity has been panning out for all to see during the campaigns and tensions will most likely flare up at Namboole.

Gen Muntu first challenged Dr Besigye for party president in 2009, when the Colonel was so much revered in FDC that challenging him for the presidency was seen as near-sacrilegious by some sections in FDC.

After that contest, a line was drawn between Dr Besigye and Gen Muntu.
Dr Besigye comfortably defeated Gen Muntu with more than 600 votes in the 2009 race to retain the party presidency.

In the 2010 contest for party presidential flag bearer in the 2011 elections, Dr Besigye polled 845 votes to Gen Muntu’s 115 votes.

In 2015, the two principals contested for the third time and Dr Besigye still defeated Gen Muntu. Dr Besigye polled 718 votes to Gen Muntu’s 289 votes becoming the FDC flag bearer for the 2016 elections.

As the contests between the two principals have become more frequent, so has the rivalry between their supporters widened with the party now diametrically polarised between supporters of Gen Muntu and those of Dr Besigye.

Dr Besigye’s camp is dominated by believers in defiance while Gen Muntu has repeatedly argued that defiance can work hand-in-hand with emphasis on building party structures.
Gen Muntu projects himself as a long-distance runner, willing to methodically build a gradual force against the establishment while Dr Besigye touts himself as a firebrand activist capable of mobilising an instant force to take advantage of an aggrieved population to shake Mr Museveni.

Dr Besigye’s supporters do not believe in Gen Muntu’s approach of using both strategies. Gen Muntu’s supporters hit back that Dr Besigye’s style has been used with zero success.
The slogans that Gen Muntu and Mr Amuriat have been using during campaigns are revealing.

Gen Muntu has campaigned on the platform of: “Building FDC Together” while Amuriat’s slogan is: “One Party, One Strategy.”

In other words, for Gen Muntu, compliance can work with defiance. For Amuriat, the only strategy to be employed by the party is defiance.

Mr Amuriat says Gen Muntu’s two-pronged strategy of defiance and compliance has planted seeds of discord in the party, with party supporters singing from different hymn books.
“Our party is divided because we have chosen to go different paths. There are those who think we should talk nicely to Museveni, continue building the party. We have told them that this has been going on for 12 years. But when dealing with the kind of military person that Museveni is, you go in that direction and you will take forever to ascend to power,” Mr Amuriat says.

This election came at a perfect time for Dr Besigye to use his larger-than-life brand to swing support behind Mr Amuriat.

Riding on the wave generated by the Opposition to the removal of the presidential age limit, Dr Besigye has been traversing the country with Mr Amuriat, convening rallies that are two pronged; rallying the population against the removal of the age limit while also campaigning for Mr Amuriat to be elected party president.

Confrontations between Dr Besigye/Mr Amuriat’s supporters and police have added another sub-plot to the behind the scenes jostling in FDC.
The Dr Besigye-Amuriat-Mafabi axis seems to smell a rat in police’s actions.

Though their running battles with police have helped reinforce their defiance strategy, they have kicked up a rather odd maelstrom with accusations making rounds over why Gen Muntu’s rallies are never blocked.

Gen Muntu has also suffered the wrath of police with some of his rallies stopped from proceeding.

Social media has hosted fierce debates between the two sets of supporters; Mr Amuriat’s supporters suspect police is deliberately clamping down on their rallies while allowing Gen Muntu to freely campaign, an allegation that infuriates Gen Muntu’s camp.

But some in Gen Muntu’s camp fear the police crackdown on Amuriat’s camp may win him some sympathy, a school of thought the ex-Kumi MP does not agree with.

“We [have] taken notes of statements made by the IGP. He called us a chaotic group and calls the other group organised. It begins to ring a bell. What is the interest of Kayihura in our internal elections? What is Kayihura’s interest in who becomes the leader of FDC?” Amuriat asks.

Ssemujju says talk that police has taken sides in the FDC contest is part of a campaign of “demonising Muntu”.

Dr Besigye’s known trusted lieutenants such as Nandala Mafabi [secretary general], Ingrid Turinawe [secretary for mobilisation], Wafula Oguttu [former Leader of Opposition in Parliament], Harold Kaija [deputy secretary general], Mubarak Munyagwa [Kawempe South MP] and Francis Mwijukye [Buhweju County MP] are the leading lights of Amuriat’s campaign team.

Other pro-Besigye FDC leaders behind Amuriat are treasurer Geoffrey Ekanya, deputy treasurer Wilberforce Kyambadde, firebrand KCCA councillor Doreen Nyanjura, Faridah Nangozi [vice-chairperson FDC Women’s League] and historical members such as Livingstone Kizito, Mukalazi Kizito, Bbaale Bwanika and Margaret Wokuri.

For this brigade of “Besigyeists” to unseat Gen Muntu, they will have to stave off a general backed by the influential parliamentary caucus.

The role of the support that Gen Muntu enjoyed from FDC MPs in defeating Mafabi in 2012 cannot be underestimated and Mr Amuriat will be wary of that challenge.
Gen Muntu’s core support is in the FDC Parliamentary Caucus, where he enjoys the support of the Leader of Opposition Winnie Kizza and the Opposition Chief Whip Ssemujju Nganda.

At his nomination in August, Gen Muntu marshalled some 15 MPs, sending a message to Dr Besigye and Amuriat that the FDC Parliamentary Caucus is fully behind maintaining the status quo.

Other influential figures behind Gen Muntu are FDC chairman Wasswa Birigwa, deputy president [eastern] Alice Alaso, deputy president [western] Patrick Baguma, Amanya Mushega, Augustine Ruzindana, John Kazoora, Muniini Mulera, deputy spokesman Paul Mwiru and Idi Ouma [chairman FDC Youth League].

A pro-Gen Muntu delegate said the election on November 24 will be a “one horse race against three” and it will be a “winner-takes-it all” for whoever bags victory.
“This will be a chance for Muntu to stamp his mark on the party. This is a contest between Muntu on one side and Dr Besigye, Nandala Mafabi and Amuriat on the other,” the delegate said.

When delegates converge to cast their ballots on Friday, they will be well aware that this is a defining moment in the battle for supremacy between Dr Besigye and Gen Muntu.