How Arua Municipality vote will be won or lost

On Wednesday, August 15, about 40,000 Arua Municipality voters will file at polling stations to pick a replacement for late Ibrahim Abiriga, the slain Member of Parliament.
With the number of candidates in the by-election double the six in the 2016 election, voters in theory are spoilt for choice.
In reality, the contest is between three, perhaps four, front runners: former Igara Growers Tea Factory Ltd general manager Robert Ejiku, fiery ex-Terego legislator Kassiano Wadri, whom a driver unexpectedly floored in the 2016 polls, and Nusura Tiperu, a long-time lawmaker holding the flag of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM).
It is an election to lose for Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party candidate Bruce Musema, an early favourite going into the nominations and before Mr Wadri threw his hat in the political ring.
The schism in the Opposition party ranks in manifest. A chunk of senior members have teleported their support to Mr Wadri, a founder member and juggernaut in FDC, now standing on Independent ticket.
This followed his disagreement with a headquarters decision that the 2016 flag bearer Musema, who narrowly lost to Abiriga, be given a second chance without internal primaries in line with party rules that ring-fence a constituency for a candidate for the full five-year election cycle.

Flood of candidates
The flood of candidates in the race is an outcome of both Abiriga’s feats and follies. An eccentric character consumed in the fantasies of NRM’s official yellow colour that he proudly wore in suits and undergarments, Abiriga had run a populist campaign in which he cast himself as a defender of the poor and less educated.
As Resident District Commissioner for Arua, he valiantly fought municipal officials’ push to clean up the town, shut down illegal roadside businesses and open community roads in the populous River Oli Division.
In return, he gained fame and political currency as a pro-poor leader. The then incumbent MP and current State minister Gabriel Aridru, a doctorate degree holder, fled from the threat of a roller-coaster Abiriga and relocated to win Vurra constituency.
It was an anti-climax that a retired Colonel, who forged papers to claim a basic Senior Six and a diploma-holder qualification, would replace an accomplished professional for an urban constituency whose voters accused the minister of deserting them.
Abiriga in the end garnered 8,473 votes in the 2016 poll, beating his nearest challenger by 1,246 votes.
His electoral victory, in spite of other evident failings, inspired many now crowded in the by-election race that it was possible to win the Arua Municipality parliamentary seat, whether inadequate or not.
To critics, late Abiriga, who was brutally assassinated on June 8 near his home in Kawanda, Wakiso District, was a political jester and disgrace in his colourful but short-lived tenure as a legislator.

Cheerleader
He had been a cheerleader in last year’s polarising campaign to scrap the presidential age limit and got convicted for urinating on the perimeter wall fence of Finance ministry headquarters.
Abiriga’s ribald disposition became an ignominy for West Nile, particularly the upper segment, concerned that his obtuse behaviour had become a standard for their reference by others as equivalents.
The intelligentsia began shopping for potential replacements to redeem what they perceived as their smudged reputation and under-par representation.
And Abiriga’s sudden demise shortened time for groundwork and consultations for consensus-building among aspirants, resulting in half-a-dozen piling and vying for the seat.
“I need a candidate who can talk and represent us well, but not people who only say ‘yes, yes’,” said Ms Florence Wa’diko, a voter and FDC supporter in Mvara ward.
The 12 contestants are educated and many are experienced in politics or development work. And there are impressive firsts, civility and sophistication in the vote canvassing process thus far.
Arua District NGO Network (ADINGON), a local civil society, yesterday planned to bring the contenders for an unprecedented joint debate that was to be broadcast live on local FM radio stations.
The purpose: tease out the real issues that matter to voters, according to organisers.
“This debate is to enable the voters make better choice on the election date,” said Mr Moses Akuma, the debate convener.
“We seek to drive an issue-based discussion on urban planning, business opportunities, poverty, health, education, youth unemployment and mandates [of an] MP.”
A legislator’s principal constitutional duties include making laws, representing constituents’ views and allocating and providing oversight in use of national resources. There is a residual task of lobbying for development from the government as well as development partners.
But voters in Arua Municipality, like their counterparts in most Ugandan constituencies, rarely elect leaders exclusively on the basis of their ability to deliver in prescribed roles.
Religion and tribe are two huge influencers. A lingering divisionism over the failed split of the constituency in readiness for the stalled city status has introduced suspicions and even hostility in electoral alliances.

Cursory split
And there is the cursory split between the urbane, many residing in Arua Hill Division and generally better off, and comparably the less gifted River Oli Division residents who outnumber and turn out generously to cast the ballot.
This is why the election, at least among the top three candidates, is still close to call.
Former MP Wadri’s combativeness is attractive and exciting, and he has enjoyed huge post-rally processions through Arua, with his supporters trudging or clinging on hired trucks. He brings energy and experience, but also the burden of his last defeat at home.
Some of the individuals who funded and coordinated his opponent’s successful campaigns have translocated the political combat to Arua Town.
Shifting from Terego to stand in the municipality has rendered Mr Wadri to criticism of political nomadism, which in itself is not illegal since the law allows a registered voter to stand for Parliament in any part of the country, but raises questions of loyalty to voters and greed for power.
But Wadri’s legislative record is his priceless asset, having built a name and brand with eloquent delivery on the floor of Parliament. His sharp-tongued criticism of the government made President Museveni gloat about his 2016 defeat during Abiriga’s burial in Rhino Camp in June, this year.
The President in rejecting claims of possible State hand in Abiriga’s death, said that the ruling NRM party does not believe in killing opponents and said Mr Wadri, for his vocal and tenacious antagonism, would already have been eliminated.
Instead, Mr Museveni said, he prayed to God for the former lawmaker’s defeat which luckily happened two years ago, although God took longer to answer his supplication.
Mr Wadri, who was present stood up, waved and mourners burst into laughter. He in the campaigns enjoys marked support in Awindiri and central Arua Town, but he will likely divide votes in Mvara, particularly Coast area, with political newcomer Sunday Anguandia, a former United Nations employee whose father is a prominent figure in the Anglican Church.
One man presenting a formidable challenge and clouding Wadri’s possibilities is Robert Ejiku who, even opponents agree, is running the most elaborate, organised and better-resourced campaigns.
His towering posters and heavy outdoor advertising enthral voters.
“I have never seen the energy or resources employed as much as he (Ejiku) has done since I began actively participating in the municipality electoral politics in 1994...,” Mr Fadhil Lemeriga, a Democratic Party official and an unsuccessful flag bearer, posted on his Facebook wall on August 7.
A choice of Arua’s elite in Kampala, Independent candidate Ejiku is a measured character, socially affable and a successful entrepreneur with a chain of businesses in the city, Arua and Koboko and a badge of honour on his sleeve is the heart to give to the less privileged.
It perhaps is the dividend of being a Rotarian where he is a Paul Harris Fellow, a recognition for an individual who contributes upwards of $1,000 (Shs3.8m) to Rotary Foundation of Rotary International to help the disadvantaged.
As the vice president of West Nile Foundation, a self-help community initiative, Mr Ejiku can claim that the West Nile Education Scholarship run by the Foundation, and on which half-a-dozen brilliant but poor students from West Nile are studying specialised courses such as pharmacy and medicine at three public universities, is his brainchild.
No wonder the Foundation president Caleb Alaka, a prominent lawyer in Kampala, nominated and has over the weeks remained holed up in Arua to canvass support for him.

Support of rich businesspeople
He has to his side the support of some of the richest businesspeople in the town and civil servants from near and far.
Being a Johnny-come-lately means not many voters know him in person or can recognise his face, an all-important political asset.
And having elites as the dominant supporters in a constituency where the predecessor parachuted to Parliament on the back of the poor and less educated voters could turn out counter-productive, according to one of Mr Ejiku’s supporters, who asked not to be named to freely discuss what he considered their team’s Achilles heels.
It is also the unpredictability of the political decisions in Arua, like in other urban constituencies, that remains a bother for all candidates.
NRM’s Nusura Tiperu served as Youth MP and tried her luck in both Yumbe and neighbouring Koboko districts before transitioning to the East African Legislative Assembly, presenting a question of loyalty.
A well-connected individual, her first millstone is to sway an electorate that reacted violently to the ruling party for Abiriga’s death and remains suspicious to-date.

The primaries also left NRM fractured, with some losers such as Jackson Atima, a husband to Maracha Woman MP Rose Ayaka, opting to vie as an Independent.
With the party secretariat superiors camping in Arua, and President Museveni expected early in the new week, Ms Tiperu should worry less about how to get national figures with clout to run and finance her campaigns or offer State support at the 11th hour. This could be game-changing too.
Being a Muslim, as she is, is a plus in Arua Town politics. However, Ms Tiperu’s trouble is that River Oli Division, which has the highest number of voters and Muslims predominantly of Aringa heritage from Yumbe District, and who mostly vote as a block, are unsure where she belongs after previously swapping constituencies from Yumbe to Koboko.
“It is not always good to vote along ethnic or religious lines because this makes people not to choose the right candidate,” said Mr Muhammad Bashir Olega, an NRM supporter in Oli Division.

Needed
What is required in the area, he said, is properly planned and serviced neighbourhoods and a leader who can work with local councillors and technocrats to achieve that.
River Oli Division chairman, Mr Muzaidi Khemis, has decamped from Mr Wadri’s team to join the campaign of FDC’s Musema. And so has Buga Mayor, an influential district councillor. As such, Obongi MP Hassan Fungaroo, who supports Musema, thinks it is a mistake to write off the candidate because Oli Division leaders have a potential to sway Wednesday’s vote in his favour.
“If you have River Oli Division on your side,” he said, “you have the win in the bag.”
The race to the finish line brings with it creativity. Independent candidate Alfred Nyakuni, a teacher popularly known by his radio studio name Unckle Nyax, has ditched rallies for door-to-door campaigns.
In the pile of struggling candidates are Jeema’s Jaffar Alekua, who has stood and lost countless times, Democratic Party’s Kennedy Madira, a popular musician better known as JM Kennedy, and nomadic Independents contender Francis Elton Nyero and his counterparts; Mr Simon Avutia, a former banker, and Mr Safi Bavuga.
The returning officer, Ms Ruth Angom, told this newspaper that the voters’ register to be used on Wednesday is not yet out.
“I have not received the register and I do not know how many are on the register because we had sent it for cleaning and verification,” she said of a delay that has rattled the candidates.
For now, the EC, flag bearers and other stakeholders are relying on the voter particulars in the 2016 register.
It is one reason, among others, that could end the Arua Municipality elections at the doors of court.