Kaweesi murder was Kayihura’s turning point

What were your impressions about the arrest of Kayihura? Did it surprise you? What did you make of it?
I will not say that I saw it coming, but if you have been following what has been going on in Uganda’s politics for the last couple of years, you would see it coming. You would see that the regime apparatus was in overdrive to pin him. The day President Museveni talked of removing bean weevils from the police was a pointer that where Kayihura was standing was no longer solid ground.

When you look at the way he handled the murder of Felix Kaweesi and how he followed up with suspects that he picked from custody as the perpetrators of Kaweesi’s murder, the writing was on the wall that something was terribly amiss in police. We could see where he was heading.
To me, Kaweesi’s murder was a turning point from a Kayihura who was a blue-eyed boy of the President to one that was now a suspect. And then the infighting with former Security minister Lt Gen Henry Tumukunde and the other security agencies meant that one had to win. His days were numbered.

What are the likely consequences of his arrest? This was a man who many saw as the fulcrum on which the regime revolved, the oil that greased the regime
Because we are in a banana republic, maybe we are gullible and we are easily lied to. If we were in a serious society, there could not be a bigger scandal, not only involving a former IGP but also the presidency.
Kale built that power base and infrastructure with the help, approval and full backing of the head of State. The police force did not have the resources to do that work and so the money he used was coming from classified expenditure solely sanctioned by the President. But sometimes Ugandans are not that sophisticated to ask those questions.
The question is: to what extent was the President aware of what Kale was doing? As a commander-in-chief, he is the first consumer of intelligence, he runs counter-intelligence and how could this happen under his watch. As Harry Truman said, the buck stops with the President.

So you are in effect saying that some of the crimes that Gen Kayihura faces may end up with links to the President?
I think critically this could lead that way. If that does not lead to that, it will be because of the nature of our society; because Kale for the last many years – study him – was political commissar in the army, he went to Anti-Stock Theft Unit and literally made it the force. He then came in to fix the politics. He did so much political work that he was literally running the political machine of President Museveni.

In the last elections, he literally delivered the presidency to Museveni. He created the likes of Boda Boda 2010. If you have been doing politics around Kampala, you would know that the cadres Kayihura recruited in the police were NRM cadres. He became the all-encompassing kind of combine harvester of all manner of cadres and he had a budget to run the show.
In the last election, he had these people called crime preventers that came to something like 1.3 million men and women across the country. This is work he was carrying for and on behalf of the President.

With Kayihura out of the picture, and we appreciate that he was superintending over major crackdowns on the Opposition and then the mess and infighting in the security agencies, is there anything for the Opposition to take advantage of?
We need to be ready, but I do not think we are. For you to take advantage of any situation, you must be organised. It is only an organised force that can take advantage of any situation. My prediction is that the boat is shaking but the Opposition is not well-organised.
My fear is that if the Opposition does not act, then along the way it will stabilise with new actors and with the same orientation and purpose, it will be business as usual. What Kale did is a question of who you trust to do it.

Sometime back, it was done by Tumukunde and the late Brig Noble Mayombo. Those were not in police, they were from the military. Even Amama Mbabazi would balance security and political work, even the likes of Tinyefuza. So it is a question of who will be trusted next with this political work.
The politics of Museveni is informed by a strong base in the security apparatus and he is not about to divorce that.

How organised should the Opposition be in order to take advantage of situations like this?
What is going on in the Ugandan Opposition is classic. It is not usual that an Opposition in a dictatorship is well-organised to be able to remove a dictatorship. What normally happens is that inherently a dictatorship collapses on its own. It will be the ruptures from within that may likely bring it down. If you study the fall of Obote, much as you can credit the strength of NRA, it was more so because of the cracks between the Acholis and Langis.

Even the removal of Obote was not because of dissidents, it was because of a fallout between him and Amin. The interesting dimension to what is going on is its weight between the ethnic groups that have been holding power. Real power in this country has been held by the Bahima, people of Rwandan origin, and Banyakole. These are the dynamics that could interest a scholar to see how far the cracks are and how they could affect the political fortunes of Mr Museveni.

Kivumbi’s take on Key issues

Consequences of Kayihura’s arrest
Kale built that power base and infrastructure with the help, approval and full backing of the head of State.
The police force did not have the resources to do that work and so the money he used was coming from classified expenditure solely sanctioned by the President. But sometimes Ugandans are not that sophisticated to ask those questions.

Opposition taking advantage of Kayihura departure
We need to be ready, but I do not think we are. For you to take advantage of any situation, you must be organised. It is only an organised force that can take advantage of any situation. My prediction is that the boat is shaking but the Opposition is not well-organised.

On Kayihura arrest exposing some Opposition members
I can also look at it from the other way round. That he has been working with the Opposition to undermine Museveni. That is a line that is also being pursued. But two, those who have been double-dealing may have nowhere to hide. They may be exposed and I think they are many.
As IGP, he was powerful and has been a key marksman of the President and definitely, he has had a go at many Opposition leaders in terms of coordinating efforts to undermine the Opposition. That is a given but that is politics. But it will wrong to presume that Kale is guilty. He is innocent until proven guilty.