Kenyan election: Why 2022 is already in the picture

As Kenyans go to the polls on Tuesday, August 8, they will not be only picking their chief executive officer for the next five years, but they will also be preparing the stage for a thrilling 2022 contest.

In the event that the firebrand opposition politician Raila Odinga – who by any measure is on the swansong of his political career - wins, the puzzle in Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto’s camp will be a simple one on paper but, in reality, a complex maze to crack. And if Uhuru takes it, that will frame a very painful political obituary for the four-time presidential runner, Raila.

But first, how will things shape up in Jubilee?
Having folded parties, with the next election without doubt in mind, into one political vehicle - the Jubilee Alliance Party - the Uhuruto camp projected itself in a rather very interesting political inclination.

If the Tuesday poll victory goes elsewhere, 2022 will uncomfortably ring quite louder in the minds of party diehards.

Questions abound. Will Kenyatta return in 2022 (the law allows him to run for two terms)? Will Ruto still play second fiddle for a third time running and wait for another unknown chance in 2026? Or will he want the party to stick to the 2013 pact with his boss that he would be guaranteed the ticket in 2022? Will there be a stalemate and eventual divorce?

Earlier this year, Central Organisation of Trade Unions (COTU-K) secretary general Francis Atwoli warned the deputy president not to think that the 2022 ticket is already in the bag. He said Mr Ruto would be foolish to believe that he will automatically be Kenya’s president in 2022.

Atwoli’s claim was premised on the basis that 2022 is still miles away and not the political undercurrents flowing in the red, yellow and black house.

A highly placed source inside the Jubilee camp told the Sunday Monitor that they are going into the Tuesday poll “to dismiss Raila first” and then think about other ambitions afterward. Asked what would happen if Raila took the day, he replied “Raila is just stronger in making noise”.

Ruto’s head of communications David Mugonyi said: “Right now we have set our eyes on the August 8 elections, where president Uhuru Kenyatta, the Jubilee Party candidate, is seeking re-election. After that, we will approach the 2022 contest at the right time.”

The feeling in the Jubilee camp is that if they win, it will be a coronation for Uhuru and a closing ceremony for Raila, leaving Mr Ruto as the lone big shot “awaiting a 2022 fall-out between Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi in the Nasa house because they will both want the presidency”.

However, under Ruto’s nose is the head of the Jubilee Alliance Party secretariat, Mr Raphael Tuju, a former politician and Member of Parliament for Rarieda Constituency. He might be a feather weight in the bigger ring. But he could flex his muscles as well.

Elsewhere in Ruto’s Rift Valley backyard is Daniel arap Moi’s son and also Baringo Senator Gideon Moi, who is causing some discomfort to the “hustler”. Keen watchers have opined that Ruto’s boss, Uhuru, will be eager to return the favour to the older Moi, who pulled him out of the shallow end of the political pool into the deeper but more significant waters, by endorsing his son Gideon for the big seat when his term ends.

The assertion has gained beef with the friction between Uhuru and Ruto, however mild, playing out through proxies.

Political analysts in Nairobi indicate that while choosing candidates for the Nairobi senatorial and gubernatorial seats, the two party principals scratched each other’s egos. Some say Ruto backed the flamboyant Mike Sonko for the Governor race against Uhuru’s wish of the quite reserved Peter Kenneth because he thought Peter Kenneth was being groomed to undermine him when 2022 comes around the corner.

It is no wonder that Ruto’s name has got tongues wagging more than Uhuru’s. He has been accused from all corners of fixing primary elections for some candidates and meddling in many issues. Raila recently said Ruto was responsible for the success or failure of the Jubilee government.

Ruto, despite widespread criticism, hasn’t sat around comatose. He has continued his worthwhile trade, paying the opposition in its own currency.
Other speculators have already suggested that Mr Ruto could choose Water Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa as his running mate in 2022.
Raila’s dilemma
Joseph Omondi, a human rights activist in the Rift Valley region, this week told AFP that for Raila, 72, “it’s this election or nothing else.”
A win for Raila would signify a historic triumph for the hothead politician and fundamentally change the Kenyan political landscape.
During the heated quest for National Super Alliance (Nasa), the opposition outfit on whose back agents of change seek to ride to power, 2022 elections was very much the agenda.

Like Kenya’s numerous (but failed) political memoranda, the ‘co-principals’, as Raila, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, Moses Wetangula, Musalia Mudavadi and Isaac Rutto agreed to hand Mr Raila the mantle.

The currency of that political trade was a promise to be a one-term president, and later hand over power to Mr Musyoka, who has twice shelved his presidential ambitions for his political brother Mr Odinga.
Weary of failed history of political memoranda in Kenya, the Nasa pentagon ensured that a memorandum was deposited with the registrar of political parties.

“What brother Musalia has read [MoU] has been written and signed and as I speak now the Secretaries General of all partner parties have gone to deposit the MoU with the registrar of political parties,” said Mr Musyoka before a mammoth crowd in Uhuru Park where Mr Odinga was declared the Nasa flag bearer.

This, then, will place a humongous moral dilemma to a president Odinga, who will have a difficult moment silencing one of his politically irate lieutenants who believe they will have their bite of the presidential pie come 2022.
It will also mean that either Orange Democratic Movement party will not field a candidate in 2022, or they will have done what the Jubilee did; fold all small parties and merge into one giant political infrastructure.

Should Mr Raila win the elections, Mr Musyoka will be an automatic front runner in the 2022 general election, and the case will now be not just Mr Raila, but his entire ODM party fulfilling their part of the bargain by backing Mr Musyoka.

Mr Mudavadi, who has used these elections to rebrand himself and change the course of his hitherto nose-diving political flight, will use his credentials as the brain behind Nasa to bargain for a bigger share of the political pudding.

A possibility of restlessness will strike the ruling coalition, with multitudes of candidates declaring to run for president, especially aging co-principals who will likely make desperate declarations ahead of thinning time.

Inside ODM, after former secretary general and Budalangi MP Ababu Namwamba breaking ranks to join the buttered side of the political divide, individuals like Mombasa governor Ali Hassan Joho will be among the first officers of the Raila government.

“In 2017, my vote is for Raila and I’m hoping in 2022, the people of Nyanza will return the favour to the people of the coast,” said Mr Joho at a past function in the coastal county of Taita Taveta.
In the event of his victory, it will be the biggest legacy issue for Mr Raila; to whip all his horses behind “Stevo,” as he fondly calls Mr Musyoka.

A Mr Raila defeat, on the other hand, is likely to scatter the opposition even more; ODM at present have Mr Joho and Nairobi governor Evans Kidero, who opinion polls suggest is standing in the middle of the dangerous road of political fate.
If he wins the city gubernatorial race, he will not have as strong and solid political constituency as that of Mr Joho.

Mr Musyoka will also have to go back to the drawing board and embark on the herculean task of fitting in Raila’s shoes as the opposition supremo.
Nasa will most likely split as each individual political party will go solo to raise their stakes and bargaining chip ahead of 2022.
Mr Namwamba, at the point of his exit, derided Mr Raila by saying 2022 will be his very last political bullet.

Whereas the Kenyan law doesn’t put an upper cap on the presidency, it will be converting water into wine for Mr Raila to position himself again for 2022, not for the already scathing attack he is receiving from Jubilee’s heir apparent Ruto.
Mr Raila will have bypassed greatness in the streets of fate, and that will signal an apparent end to a political career that has spanned decades and seen him get a fair share of passionate support and loath in equal measure.

On Friday during a Nasa rally at Mama Ngina grounds at the coast, Wiper candidate Hassan Omar was humiliated at the hands of supporters of his political rival Joho. It cast bad light in the pentagon house whose leaders watched in discomfort. It spoke volumes for the two parties, though.
In the run-up to the 2017 polls, there are two people who have come out openly to declare their intentions to run for the presidency in 2022, and those are Ruto and Mr Joho.

In Kenyan politics, it is always marriage of convenience. It is too early, to be fair, to even guess the alliances in 2022.
By the look of things, Ruto is the man to watch over the next years until 2022. Uhuru’s actions or inactions will also be significant.
But what is apparent is that not both Raila and Uhuru will be in the ballot four years from now!