Museveni redraws plan to win over Kampala

Why did Kampala Central MP Muhammad Nsereko take aim at former presidential candidate Kizza Besigye over the latest piglet demo at Parliament, and then only days later seemed to relax his stance towards the Opposition leader?
Besigye was not even in the country at the time Nsereko went for him during a talk show on NBS TV, having spent several weeks in the US and UK. By Nsereko going after him the way he did, it is easy to conclude that the outspoken MP understands the game well, and that he sees no point in going for proxies.

It is the way it has been for the past 15 years. On the one side is President Museveni, and on the other is Kizza Besigye. Those playing on the sides of these two principals have differed over time. By singling out Besigye for criticism, therefore, Nsereko, in the eyes of Besigye’s allies, showed himself as working for Museveni, his insistence that he is independent notwithstanding.
At the high-end of Kampala politics, which appears to have gotten deeper as Museveni looks to regain his balance in the city after taking a heavy beating in the 2016 election, there is a heavy dose of backstabbing, intrigue, hoodwinking and such like. The pushing and shoving is heavy, and there are casualties all over the place.
Many of the recent actions of the key players in Kampala politics, it would then appear, can be placed within the context of different players to keep ahead in the jostle for power and influence within the city.

Shifting allegiances
Shortly after the February elections in which NRM had hugely lost in Kampala, President Museveni was among those who accused KCCA executive director Jennifer Musisi’s methods of causing the loss.
Musisi had since 2011 pursued what to many was a ruthless policy of cleaning up the city, pushing vendors off streets and breaking up shanty dwellings, leaving many urban poor angry with the ruling party. Another of those who said Musisi was responsible for the loss was former Attorney General Freddie Ruhindi, who was Nakawa Division MP, among others.

With the ruling party effectively wiped off the face of Kampala in that election, Museveni set out to renew his strategy towards Kampala. In the new strategy, however, the traditional NRM leaders in Kampala were left to play no influential role.

Opposition-leaning politicians – Kamya, Nsereko and Florence Nakiwala Kiyingi, who had unsuccessfully vied for the Kampala Woman MP seat on DP ticket, featured prominently in Museveni’s new plan, with Kamya and Nakiwala scooping ministerial postings.
It is important to note that both Kamya and Nakiwala had failed in their endeavours to go to Parliament; just like Ruhindi had lost Nakawa and John Simbwa lost Makindye East.
After Museveni named his Cabinet, NRM members were angry that he had dropped Ruhindi ostensibly because he had lost his constituency and not picked any other NRM member from within Kampala to take up his position in Cabinet.
They wondered why Museveni picked Kamya and Kiyingi, who until then said they belonged to the Opposition, passing over the other people within Kampala who had always mobilised for NRM.
The NRM dissenters thought the President could recall to Cabinet people like Francis Babu, or pick new ones like Madina Nsereko, who had been a councillor at KCCA and unsuccessfully vied for the Kawempe South parliamentary seat in the 2016 election.

Did Kamya outfox Nsereko?
This protest within the NRM ranks in Kampala placed Museveni and Kamya in a tight corner. Kamya, who we understand is heavily backed by Gen Salim Saleh, had been appointed minister in charge of Kampala chiefly to do political mobilisation. The trouble she faced, however, was that she had no base from which to mobilise.
On the one hand, Kamya, by accepting a ministerial position in Museveni’s Cabinet, alienated Opposition supporters and she may not easily mobilise them. On the other hand, the NRM structures within Kampala are not available to her because the NRM leaders are angry over her appointment.
It is within this context, we understand, that Museveni offered an opportunity to a number of Muslims from Kampala to perform pilgrimage to Mecca earlier this month. Many of the aggrieved NRM leaders being Muslims, our sources say, Museveni considered that offering them an opportunity to perform Hajj would calm them down a little.
We understand, however, that some of the leaders, Kampala Central NRM chairman Salim Uhuru being one of them, still declined the offer. It remains to be seen whether the carrot of Hajj will ease things a little for Kamya as far as her mobilisation drive is concerned.

But she has another problem. She is a minister without a real ministry. Before her appointment, the minister for Kampala also doubled as the minister for the Presidency and drew his/her resources from the vote of the Presidency ministry.

Kampala was upgraded to full-fledged ministry with a State minister only in June, but that was after the budgetary allocations had been finalised by the last Parliament in April. The Ministry for Kampala, since it did not exist until June, therefore, had no vote of its own and was expected to draw from that of the Presidency.
We understand the Kampala ministry has since got “some little money” from the Presidency ministry, but our information indicates that it is too little to sustain the ministry and serve Kamya’s mobilisation work.
For that reason, we understand, Kamya has teamed up with Saleh to lobby for a mobilisation fund at least until next July when the ministry will get fully financed. It is worth noting that even if KCCA receives a substantial amount of money, the money goes to the Authority, whose chief accounting officer is the executive director, meaning that the minister may, according to the law, not use money from the Authority for her political work.
It is not clear whether the fact that Musisi controls hundreds of billions while Kamya is starved of cash has sparked off a fight for supremacy between the two women. What is clear, however, is that Musisi has effectively got off the scene since Kamya was appointed.

Take an example. Museveni in the recent past toured Kawempe market and donated Shs200m to Kenyatta Market Sacco, visited a car washing bay at Mulago where he donated Shs100m, and visited different artisans in Katwe, donating hundreds of millions to different groups.
On all those occasions, Kamya was clearly the lead host, with Nakiwala in tow, but Musisi did not show up at any of them. Most NRM leaders from Kampala did not show up, too. During Museveni’s tours of the city over the past five years, Musisi had always taken centre stage, sometimes riding in the same vehicle with the President.
Whichever way one looks at it, therefore, Kamya is very much in favour currently. And it was perhaps in an attempt to demonstrate her importance to Museveni’s mobilisation effort in Kampala that Kamya, during one of Museveni’s recent tours in Kampala, said the 72-year-old leader would be guaranteed an 80 per cent vote harvest in 2021. By that year, Museveni will be precluded from running for the presidency again since, at 77, he will have surpassed the constitutional age cap of 75.

It is by doing things like that, it appears, that Kamya managed to upstage Nsereko as Museveni’s go-to mobiliser in Kampala. Nsereko, who in 2010 upstaged former minister Francis Babu in the race for Kampala District NRM chairperson and later became Kampala Central MP on NRM ticket, eventually quarrelled with his party and contested the last election and got re-elected as an independent.
But there are a number of pointers that he remains key to the NRM power play in Kampala. Shortly after the election in February, Nsereko was key in mobilising KCCA councillors, an overwhelming majority of them Opposition, to meet with Museveni. The meeting eventually did not happen because Besigye and FDC eventually barred their councillors from meeting with Museveni, saying any negotiations with the President would only be conducted by the party’s leadership.

In addition, at least 10 FDC councillors, including Muhammad Ssegirinya, reported to Besigye, who was still under house arrest following the election, that Nsereko was courting them and wanted to take them on a trip in a foreign country.

Nsereko was bullish when we put this to him for this story, dismissing the information as “rubbish”, the same word he used for whoever propagated it.
However, the accusations remain, with other Opposition players accusing the Kampala Central MP of taking a group of radio presenters, and commentators to meet with Museveni shortly after the election with the view to diffusing the tension that existed as Besigye rejected the election results.

Nsereko’s futile attempt to lead Kampala MPs
Our information further shows that in the immediate aftermath of the February election, Nsereko lost the battle to lead the City Parliamentary Forum, which brings together MPs from Kampala, the minister of Kampala, the Lord Mayor and divisional mayors.
The forum convenes once a month to discuss different issues regarding the management of the city, but we understand it is riddled by mutual mistrust. When Nsereko offered himself to lead it, we understand, the group of Allan Ssewanyana and Mubarak Munyagwa that backs Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago stood their ground and eventually defeated him, instead handing the chair to Kawempe North MP Latif Ssebaggala. Nsereko would again lose the bid to be secretary of the forum, which went to the jailed Nakawa MP Michael Kabaziguruka.
Whereas Nsereko was unable to persuade enough members to back him for the leadership of the forum, our information shows, he managed to sway Rubaga South MP Kato Lubwama. Picture of the duo, in the company of other MPs, would later be shared on social media as they vacationed in different countries, with Nsereko’s critics alleging that he had sponsored the MPs’ trips using money from Museveni.
When we put this to Nsereko for this article, again, he said it is “rubbish”. He said it was an insult to the other MPs for Ugandans to imagine that they would not afford to fund vacations on their own.
The MP from among this group who has come up for the sharpest criticism in the recent past is Lubwama, who is shown in video dismissing critics against the MPs’ proposed car grant of Shs200m (Parliament’s publicist Chris Obore insists the agreed car grant is Shs150m) as “poor”.
Lubwama, just months before running for the seat, solicited money from the public and went for treatment in India, but in the video he said it is normal for people to drive cars worth Shs200m or more, pointing out that Kenyan MPs actually get cars to the tune of UShs500m.

Museveni money at work?
Lubwama, after being heavily criticised for his utterances, sought to make amends and showed up in his constituencies to give out motorbikes to some lucky youths, a gesture that critics said was funded by “Museveni’s money”.
When he spoke at the convention of Ugandans in North America a few weeks ago, just as Museveni had just given out money to groups in Kampala, Besigye said Museveni’s target when he gives out the money are not the beneficiaries. He said the non-beneficiaries would then keep in anticipation that at some point they too would be given some money, forcing them to keep backing Museveni.
Whatever the thinking behind the handouts, Museveni has stepped up his donation drive after the election, leaving his critics offering differing interpretations of the gesture.
And as the money keeps flying, it is safe to imagine that the different players involved in the battle for Kampala will keep active – with pro-Museveni players fighting on a leash as their opponents look to paint them as sell-outs in the eyes of a constituency that has demonstrated a Museveni fatigue over the years.