Prof Barya presidential bid: Is he testing the waters?

Prof Venansius Baryamureeba announced this week that he is running for president. The question, however, is how far Barya – as he is fondly known among peers – can stand up to the challenge.
Well, should the former Makerere University vice chancellor get nominated a few months from now, he will find himself on the ballot paper with some of the country’s political heavyweights such as President Museveni and FDC president Mugisha Muntu.
Others may include three-time presidential candidate Dr Kizza Besigye, who says he does not rule out standing again, Maj Gen Benon Biraro, a retired UPDF officer who launched a political party, and former prime minister Amama Mbabazi, who remains measured in his responses as to whether he will contest.

Uganda Peoples Congress outgoing president Olara Otunnu and Uganda Federal Alliance chief Beti Kamya have since declared their disinterest in the contest.
Prof Baryamureeba is yet to declare his political platform but sources close to him indicate he might vie for the top job on a People’s Progressive Party (PPP) ticket. Founded in 2004 by veteran politician Jaberi Bidandi Ssali, PPP’s first name was National Progressive Movement until December 2005.

For Baryamureeba, the battle for State House has been a scientific process, dating as far back as 2004. He was only dean of the Faculty of Computer and Information Technology at the time. When he ascended to the vice chancellor position, Baryamureeba consolidated his political roots and spread them wider.
Those roots are what led to the birth of the National Progressive Movement in 2004 that later metamorphosed into PPP.
But again, for the record, the Uganda Management and Technology University (UTAMU) founder is yet to announce which party he will use as his vehicle. What is clear though is that the interest in the race is dough he has kneaded for a considerably long time.

“My father always told me that I was born to lead, to excel and to be great. Therefore, with a deep sense of duty and commitment, I accept the presidential nomination by progressive Ugandans. I accept it without any reservations and I promise to devote every effort of body, mind and spirit to lead the progressive Ugandans to victory in the 2016 presidential election and our country to greatness,” he said.
Following his announcement, sections of the public, expressing themselves on social media platforms, dismissed him. Others evoked memories of Nelson Ocheger of the Action Party who months after the election handed his party members to Mr Museveni, closed shop and was appointed into the diplomatic service.

Obongi County MP Hassan Fungaroo says: “He is welcome to the race, but he was and remains unclear on whether he is for or against the status quo. That is the dilemma people are in. They are likely to see him in the direction of Nelson Ocheger and in any case, sometimes Museveni picks his opponents and they remain subservient to him.”
Makerere University political science don Sabiti Makara says, “I don’t think anyone is using Baryamureeba, I think he is just ambitious and wants to try and see what the voters are like. I strongly believe he is not being used, he is above that at least.”
Whether he is “used” or not is a debate we cannot exhaust, it can only get more speculative. As National Resistance Movement deputy spokesman Ofwono Opondo opines, “It is Baryamureeba to prove he is not being used by Museveni but the problem is that Ugandans, especially journalists, have an inflated opinion of themselves. You want to say people are being used but who is using Besigye?”
For Ocheger, time was the ultimate judge.

What Barya’s candidature means
Should the ballot paper bear these names next year; Muntu, Besigye, Mbabazi, Museveni, Biraro and now Baryamureeba, how will this play with all the top contenders from one region?
Prof Makara says, “You cannot stop anyone from standing because of his region but I don’t know how the rest of the country will take it. It is likely to be a problem.”
Mzee Yona Kanyomozi, a former minister in the Obote II administration, says: “You can reduce the contest to a few Banyankole against one Mukiga and two Balalo. I don’t know how the east and north will take it though I see many of them are now with Museveni. Perhaps if Gilbert Bukenya (former vice president) stands, that can balance the equation because Mao seems to be out of the race now, which would have helped balance.”

The veteran politician and former East African Legislative Assembly MP adds: “I honestly don’t think the ethnic imbalance is by design, it is by default arising from the suffocation of political parties where people from elsewhere would emerge. Some westerners also feel they brought the man (Museveni) and it is their duty to remove him.”
In 1996, we had Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere, President Museveni and Kibirige Mayanja, a contest that gave a semblance of an ethnically balanced political space. The 2001, 2006 and 2011 elections were largely a Besigye-Museveni duel. Somehow the tribal undertones did not surface, thanks in part to the army of supporters the former FDC president coalesced across the country.

Like two-time president Milton Obote in 1980, whose support base was as firm home in Acholi and Lango as it was in Bugisu, Teso, Busoga and greater Ankole, Besigye gathered a near-fanatical support base across the country, generally but specifically outside his home ground. That, one can safely argue, blurred the parochial vision of tribe in his contest with Museveni. Never mind that the two are of different tribes, albeit from one region.

Nipping a boycott in the bud?
On Wednesday, leaders of major Opposition parties interfaced with Committee on Legal and Parliamentary Affairs which is perusing through the Constitutional Amendment Bill.
For the Opposition, poll reforms are dear to the heart and Dr Besigye has indicated should the reforms, that among other demands for an overhaul of the Electoral Commission beyond changing its name, fall short of the election time line, “the elections should be postponed, we allow Mr Museveni serve his term till May and we have an election organised by an interim government”.
So determined is the civil society and Opposition that should the august House abandon their proposals, a concerted ‘no elections without reforms’ campaign is underway, under the auspices of the Citizens Reforms Now.

‘Positioning himself’
Kanyomozi says Baryamureeba may not necessarily be on a mission assigned to him by Museveni. Far from that, but in the event that an election boycott ensues, he could find himself in the good books.
“I think he is positioning himself so that when the election is boycotted, he stands and gets either prime minister or minister of Education. It is another Ocheger arrangement because NRM will argue that some credible people contested. I see he is also friendly to Museveni,” he says.

Some political commentators have perceived Maj Gen Biraro in this light, arguing that his candidature serves the regime’s interest, either directly or indirectly. He has of course rubbished this line of thought as diversionary.
That would not be new. Washington Post in 2011 reported on the Russian election where leading businessmen were co-opted in the race after the credible opposition was technically knocked out.
“First, a coalition formed by the country’s leading liberal opposition figures was denied registration as a political party last week, supposedly on technical grounds — making it the ninth such party to be turned down in the past four years,” the newspaper reported.

“Days later, a billionaire businessman with close ties to president Dmitry Medvedev was suddenly installed as leader of a previously dormant party called Right Cause, which describes itself as the pro-business alternative to the left-leaning United Russia party founded by Vladimir Putin.”
Experiences of elections in some African countries have played out like a script written and directed in 2011 Russia. Will this play out in Uganda? Again, only time can tell.

What others say of Prof Barya’s bid

Obongi County MP Hassan Fungaroo says: “He is welcome to the race, but he was and remains unclear on whether he is for or against the status quo. That is the dilemma people are in. They are likely to see him in the direction of Nelson Ocheger and in any case, sometimes Museveni picks his opponents and they remain subservient to him

Makerere University political science don Sabiti Makara:“I don’t think anyone is using Baryamureeba, I think he is just ambitious and wants to try and see what the voters are like. I strongly believe he is not being used, he is above that at least”

National Resistance Movement deputy spokesman Ofwono Opondo: “It is Baryamureeba to prove he is not being used by Museveni but the problem is that Ugandans, especially journalists, have an inflated opinion of themselves. You want to say people are being used but who is using Besigye?”