Red flags along road to 2016

What you need to know:

Youth question. Uganda Human Rights Commission says Uganda’s vast unemployed youth, if not well-handled, could be exploited by different political parties to engage in violence, writes Solomon Arinaitwe.

With less than 12 months to go before Ugandans head to the polls, a report by the Uganda Human Rights Commission (UHRC) was the latest in grim assessments warning that the elections may not be free and fair with a high possibility of the contest taking a violent turn.

In an honest self-assessment, the government rights watchdog agency chronicled a litany of troubles that it warned will push the election to the precipice-ranging from the delay in passing of electoral reforms, restrictive laws, and monetisation of politics and, perhaps most critically, to the uncertainty over how the voters register will be compiled.

The European Union quickly gave a nod of approval to the report.
Key among the critical issues raised regards a controversial plan by the Electoral Commission (EC) to use data compiled under the national ID project to compile a voters’ register. The report warns that non-Ugandans were registered as citizens during the exercise last year.

When the EC came up with that plan, Opposition parties argued that it contravenes constitutional provisions that stipulate that the EC should independently collect data for compiling a voters’ register. Compiling a voter’s register would require the input of the civil society and political parties-which did not participate in the national ID project.

Rather, the army – with its documented infamous involvement in determining who wins the presidential race – took the lead role in the project.
EC spokesman Jotham Taremwa says though they will use national ID data, political parties and civil society should not feel “distanced” because it will carry out a voter’s register where they will be brought on board.

UHRC’s warning that Rwandan and Tanzanians were registered as citizens re-echoed an admission by junior Internal Affairs minister James Baba, who told Parliament in April last year that complexity in citizenship verification was pegging back the project.

Internal Affairs minister Aronda Nyakairima would later shed more light on the difficulties that marred the project ranging from extortion, incompetent enrolment officers, malfunctioning kits to poor storage of equipment upcountry – inadvertently admitting that the compiled data cannot be trusted with computing a voter’s register.

In a telephone interview, Mr Baba insisted the data was “cleaned” and those with grievances can go to court. “I do not have that evidence and I do not believe the UHRC report. We had verification teams that visited the parishes and villages. There will also be further verification and cleaning up of the data. I do not know the basis of the UHRC report,” Mr Baba said.

Asked on the specific cases of registration of non-Ugandans, the minister responded that they could have been cases of citizens by naturalisation.
Mr Baba says it will be “discretionary and upon the EC to use the data”.
Mr Crispy Kaheru, the coordinator of the Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda, a group that monitored the mass enrolment exercise, says the national ID project should be given a “chance to work”.

The EC, however, should undertake to “rid the register of any wrong, erroneous, and illegitimate entries – the underage, non-citizens, and the dead. But it is also through those processes that voters have a chance to point out any errors, make corrections, and update their voting status,” Mr Kaheru says.

Cleaning up of the voters register is at the centre of the call for electoral reforms – with the delay in tabling the legislations another ominous sign that the report raised a red flag over warning that they could be “affected when it is too late for them to have any meaningful meaning”.

The charge by UHRC re-echoed concerns by the Opposition and civil society groups that the government is buying time in order to table watered-down versions of reform laws at the last minute which would not ensure a level ground.

With the government dragging its feet to table the reforms, the Opposition says it has got wind of a decision that the ruling party will use its vast majority in Parliament to deny a member a chance to take leave of the House to table a private members Bill or even get the required Certificate of Financial Implication.

Attorney General Fred Ruhindi says Cabinet has largely agreed on the “principles” of the Bill but could not commit to a specific timeline on when they will be tabled for First Reading.“The proposed amendments of the Constitution will not affect the Electoral Commission in the discharge of its functions. Last week, Cabinet passed the principles of the proposed amendments. There is a draft Constitutional Amendment Bill (CAB) right now. Within the shortest time possible, the CAB will be tabled,” Mr Ruhindi said.

With Parliament set to break off for Easter and resuming to handle the Budget process, before heading for recess, the government is clearly running out of time.
Another worrying trend the report chronicled was the money that is exchanging hands in the run-up to the elections. “Reports indicate that some political actors are already using money in positioning themselves for the 2016 elections- a situation likely to get worse during the campaign if not checked,” the report reads.

Though the report fell short of pointing fingers, money has been a constant feature in the quarrels within the National Resistance Movement that were largely triggered by a February 2013 parliamentary caucus resolution that endorsed President Museveni as the party’s sole candidate for the presidential contest.

Dr Fred Muhumuza, a former adviser at the Finance ministry and now senior manager at KPMG Uganda, warns that such money flows cause “distortion, inflation and anxiety”.
“One of the reasons money causes anxiety is when it is distributed in a non-conventional way. Even people who have received will be asking why they have received Shs60 or 70 and those who have not received will be asking why! It brings a dirty game and there can be a backlash,” Dr Muhumuza says.

Opposition parties have also not been amused by supplementary budgets tabled by the government in the run-up to elections. In the run-up to the 2011 elections, the government tabled a Shs600b request, with a big chunk of the cash going to agencies directly linked to the presidency like Defence, State House and police. Government has already tabled a supplementary request of Shs800m.

Bank of Uganda governor Tumusiime Mutebile last year conceded that he was misled into funding the 2011 polls – effectively disrupting the economy with inflation rising to a record 30 per cent triggering the walk-to-work protests.

Mr Mutebile revealed that Bank of Uganda has suspended printing of money during elections, fearing such money would end up facilitating political campaigns.
Another permanent bone of contention during elections is the police with accusations, vindicated by several court rulings that the Force is a biased enforcer inclined towards the government.

The government rights watchdog puts the police on notice over its recruitment of so-called crime preventers, warning that they are “poorly trained yet given powers to do police work”. Official figures on the numbers of crime preventers are unavailable as they are informally and covertly recruited at village level with a target of 30 per village.

But their role, code of conduct and structure remain shrouded in mystery, lending credence to the suggestion of Mr David Pulkol, the former director of the External Security Organisation, that they are an extension of the Chaka Mchaka programme, a para-military course introduced by the NRA in the early 90s. Though the programme ought to have been disbanded with the 2005 switch to the multi-party system, it remains a critical mobilisation and propaganda programme of the ruling party.

Mr Pulkol, now a UPC politician planning a possible presidential bid, says: “The State has become repressive and the police has become that ugly face of the regime. The main strength of the regime is the police which are the first call whenever the regime faces a political question. It is a more naked brute force. This has radicalised the population.”

Uncertainty over the creation of new constituencies is another grey area that the report pointed to. Mr Museveni has indicated that the government has not put a freeze on the creation of new constituencies even as the EC should have mapped and re-organised polling stations by March.

Polling stations with a voter population of more than 900 voters shall be split into two or more polling stations, according to guidelines of the Electoral Commission. A parliamentary committee will this week table a report on the creation of new districts and constituencies.

The UHRC report also referred to restrictive laws. Public Order Management Act was controversially passed by Parliament last year. The legislations put tough measures on public gatherings in the country.

Failure to register inmates, effectively denying them the right to vote, was also pointed out. With more than 43,000 prisoners, all of voting population, according to prisons spokesperson Frank Baine, a critical mass is denied a chance to vote.
Quoting a Canada Supreme court ruling, the commission accused the government of punching holes in its function as the real representative of all Ugandans.

“A government that restricts the franchise to select a portion of citizens is a government that weakens its ability to function as the legitimate representative of the excluded citizen, jeopardises its claim to representative democracy, and erodes the basis of its right to convict and punish law breakers” the report notes.

The unemployed youth problem

“Uganda’s vast unemployed youth if not well handled could be exploited by different political parties to engage in violence,” the report says. Uganda’s youth unemployment is at more than 80 per cent.

And that warning has evidence to bare it out as several youth groups have already sprung up, claiming allegiances to different political actors. From the National Association of the Unemployed Youth, the Jobless Brotherhood, and the NRM Poor Youth to the Pro-Mbabazi Poor Youth, the youth have been quick to conglomerate into loose groupings. These groups have clashed with each other and also with the security agencies.

These youth groups, majority making their debuts on the ballot and sugared with cash are “willing to go an extra mile to ensure that their candidates win,” according to Mr Ahmed Hadji, the chairperson of the Youth Coalition on Electoral Democracy.

“The terrain has been tailored to show that is the youth who will deliver the vote. There is going to a lot of scuffle. I cannot rule out the fact that they are those who are willing to go an extra mile for dying for their for candidates.”