Uganda stuck in new scramble for AU job after Kazibwe defeat

DR Congo president Joseph Kabila (left) talks to his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame (right) while President Museveni (centre) chats with South African president Jacob Zuma at the recent African Union summit in Kigali, Rwanda. PHOTO COURTESY OF FLICKR/PAUL KAGAME

What you need to know:

  • Eyes on 2017 summit. Diplomats in Kampala say they are back to the drawing board as Rwanda joins Botswana and Senegal, which after leading the Ecowas vote boycott, is fielding a pan-Africanist intellectual with roots in anti-apartheid struggle.

Dr Kazibwe headed to Kigali with a Harvard University doctorate degree pinned up on her sleeve and wearing a political armlet of being Africa’s first female vice president. Hers was a race to fly Uganda’s flag as the chief executive at AU’s Addis Ababa headquarters – a campaign that galvanised some Ugandan political foes amid a divided citizenry.

The bid did not only flounder. Dr Spe, as she is fondly called at home, was ejected in the first of four voting rounds, after tailing with 10 votes.
There was initial domestic split, and criticism on social media, about Dr Kazibwe’s record and suitability going into the competition.
“… Specioza Kazibwe screwed up one of #Uganda’s poorest peoples - Karimojong! I say no to such bafere (con)!” journalist and blogger Rosebell Kagumire tweeted on June 24, in reference to bungled dam projects in arid cattle corridors when Dr Kazibwe was Uganda’s Agriculture minister.
A pile of less-than-charitable posts pop up in search on twitter using her name, including allusions to questionable use by the government’s Micro-Finance Support Centre of slush funds for small and medium scale entrepreneurs. A board that Dr Kazibwe chaired supervised the fund’s executive when allegations of misappropriation emerged.

Kazibwe unsuitable?
There is no evidence that the online opprobrium scuttled the ex-VP’s chances, and Dr Kazibwe has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing and said allegations against her are “malicious”.
And Kampala officials have since discounted these initial disapprovals as invalid because even Botswana’s Pelomi Venson-Moitoi and Equatorial Guinea’s Agapito Mba Mokuy, both unencumbered by similar charges, failed to obtain two-third majority required to take the job home.
So how did a campaign that the government bankrolled with Shs1 billion, besides an additional Shs2 billion made available to offset arrears to AU secretariat to clear the ground for Spe to run, fail?

“It was not about the person, not even the country,” an official who handled the campaigns on government side said, adding: “The stalemate was caused by regional dynamics.”
Regional dynamics, in this case, refers to how countries cast their votes based on loyalty to respective economic blocs and geographical grouping.
Leaders of the 15-member Economic Community of West African States, better known by the acronym Ecowas, for instance, were cocky before and during the 27th AU summit in Kigali mid this month.

In the run up to the July 18 ballot, Ecowas filed a motion of request to have the elections postponed on grounds that it intended to present a candidate after failing for unexplained reasons to do so during the nomination period. The request, a source said, was brought forward for debate but presiding AU chairman and Chadian president Idriss Deby overruled it.

Blame game
Uganda’s Foreign Affairs ministry officials are yet to account for the loss, which a source said infuriated President Museveni, after creating an initial impression that the job was Dr Kazibwe’s to take.

A source, however, put the blame at the President’s door-step, accusing State House of hijacking the process and deploying politicians – Members of Parliament, current and past ministers – to garner continental support.

Eritrea, although being in Eastern Africa voting bloc, reportedly took exception that legislators considered junior in diplomatic power play made the trip to court their government and this allegedly upset them to turn a back on Kazibwe, according to a senior Ugandan official who claimed to have spoken to Asmara counterparts after the secret ballot.

Kampala dispatched Ms Cecilia Ogwal, one of Uganda’s most experienced lawmakers and Opposition icons, as a special envoy to Asmara and she, after the meeting, quoted Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki, saying “support to Eastern Africa’s candidate is an obligation, a commitment to moving Africa forward”, according to the online Insider publication.

Former State Internal Affairs minister James Baba got stranded at Juba airport when fighting erupted in South Sudan where he, just like Cabinet colleagues such as Kahinda Otafiire (Justice), Okello Oryem (State, International Affairs), Ms Syda Bbumba (Gender) and the Leader of Opposition in Parliament Winifred Kiiza, crisscrossed the continent to popularise Dr Kazibwe’s candidature.

Barren campaign
Special envoys, in diplomatic practice, are persons assigned by a head of state or government to deliver a specific message directly to another counterpart – without going through routine procedures – so that the matter is handled “properly and judiciously”, according to ambassador Harold Acemah who retired while deputy Head of Mission at Uganda’s Brussels Mission.

Put another way, the representatives that spread out should by decorum have been considered as trusted voices of President Museveni and treated as such.

Yet those trips, including a reported endorsement by Nigerian government, did not yield much, if anything. In the end, Uganda was left in its hands with promises, but not votes. Dr Kazibwe received votes less than the tally for the 14 Eastern Africa voting countries.

This, according to a source that preferred anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, was because individual countries tend to look up to trading partners in an economic bloc and geographical neighbours when making decisions on casting the ballot.

On that account, it is suspected some Eastern Africa countries that had prior assured Uganda, but are members of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), instead voted for Botswana’s Venson-Moitoi who remained the only standing contender during the last voting round.

“Uganda has acquired a hegemonic status, especially its glowing military visibility which is not only an envy of other leaders but threatening as well,” said Dr Frederick Kisekka-Ntale, a political consultant and former researcher at Makerere Institute of Social Research (MISR).
Looked through those lenses, he said, Dr Kazibwe’s loss reflected more a rejection of Museveni’s hegemony.

“President Museveni is a leader who is loved and loathed at the same time; so, the rejection of his candidates was one of the subtle ways to prove a point,” Dr Kisekka-Ntale said, expressing surprise that instead a candidate fronted by a country whose leader despises his peers performed the best.

Progressive Botswana
Ian Khama, the president of Botswana, rarely attends AU summits and is known to contradict his peers on issues such as governance and democracy. For example, his government openly questioned President Museveni’s February 2016 re-election whereas the continent’s election observers gave it a clean bill of health.

Khama has also been vocal and a prick to other African leaders by challenging them to avoid doing wrong instead of plotting a mass withdrawal from the International Criminal Court they accuse of targeting Africans.

When he did not attend the Kigali meet, Equatorial Guinea and Uganda presumed his country’s candidate Venson-Moitoi would get the least vote, opening up a better chance for either Dr Kazibwe or Mba Mokuy. It didn’t and Botswana’s luminary performance underscored the unspoken power of regional alliances.
That brand of loyalty enabled Venson-Moitoi to run away with the competition, garnering 26 votes during the fourth and last round, the highest overall but still below the 34-vote threshold.

Uganda’s fortune was constricted by Burundi’s last-minute withdrawal from the summit and additionally constipated by, what one diplomat involved in the process, said was the likelihood of Eastern Africa voting bloc countries such as Madagascar and Mauritius siding with colleague Francophone club members.

A government official told this newspaper that Kampala’s mistake was fielding an academically and politically qualified person, but who could only speak English and lacked relevant diplomatic experience, making her a hard sale to Francophone and Lusophone (Portuguese-speaking) Africa whose combined votes is decisive.

Ambassador Acemah told Sunday Monitor on Thursday that Dr Kazibwe “was not suitable; she lacked experience [in diplomatic service]. With the Internet, you cannot hide anything and anything which happened about her in Uganda is known internationally.”

Our efforts over the past week to reach the ex-vice president were unsuccessful. Her campaign spokesperson, Ms Sarah Kagingo, said Dr Kazibwe was eminently qualified for the AU top job.
She said: “Dr Kazibwe has been vice president and represented the President to many states and international organisations; she has been a member of the AU Panel of the Wise. How can one say she lacks diplomatic approach or credentials? That’s wrong.”

What next?
There is no straight jacket option, at least for now, according to Ministry of Foreign Affairs permanent secretary James Mugume.

“There are scenarios, including [Nkosazana] Dlamini-Zuma coming back. It’s too early to speculate,” he said by telephone.

Because of the stalemate created by more heads of state and government abstaining rather than voting, a new AU Commission chairperson will now be chosen in Ethiopia in January, 2017. In the meantime, the race has been opened up to new entrants, meaning in theory that the trio who lost in Kigali are still in the running since none has formally withdrawn.

A senior diplomat said shortly after the inconclusive poll that whereas the law allows Uganda to re-nominate Dr Kazibwe for the rescheduled race; doing so after a poor show would complicate galvanising regional endorsement for her candidature.

Neither will Uganda front a new person, however much competent, guarantee success because, according to our investigations, countries those supported Dr Kazibwe have moved on while names of more solid candidates are beginning to emerge.

Rwanda in race?
Neighbouring Rwanda reportedly has on standby two candidates – economist and African Development Bank president Donald Kaberuka and Dr Richard Sezibera, the immediate past East African Community secretary general.

The money and economy issues Kaberuka handled plugged him into heart of Africa’s politics, connecting him with power brokers in the 53-member countries, excluding Morocco. Rwanda’s calculations, this newspaper understands, is to front either of the two directly or let another country choose one as a compromise candidate.

If that happens, Uganda’s slim chance will atrophy. Already the fatigue of a campaign that ended in international humiliation has discouraged bureaucrats from another round.

And Ms Kagingo in a veiled reference to the possibility of Dr Kazibwe pulling out altogether said “instead of pushing [for] competition, Africa should now seek to cooperate.” A final position awaits Foreign Affairs’ guidance, she said.

The failed mid-July election has polarised Ugandans as it has cracked up AU. Kampala is unlikely to marshal diplomatic support sufficient to stymie election of another candidate as a payback to Ecowas, even if it wanted to, because Eastern Africa’s geographical bond is weak.
One reward of the bid, however, was galvanising Uganda’s political foes and the engineering of a rare breed mature conversation.

For instance, MP Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda, a vocal critic of the Museveni government and spokesman for Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Uganda’s largest Opposition party, has spiritedly defended involvement of his colleagues in lobbying support for Dr Kazibwe against the wishes of the other FDC leaders.

“I strongly think it would have been wrong for my party to frustrate Kazibwe’s effort to win the AU chair. Now that she has almost failed, we can pursue what the FDC wants – a policy on international jobs. But not to back our own merely because they belong to UPC, NRM or FDC is something I don’t and will never associate with!” he wrote in a July 27 column in The Observer, citing Museveni government’s alleged sabotage of Opposition politician Olara Otunnu from becoming secretary general of the United Nations.

Speaking for the first time to this newspaper about the machinations which happened 24 years ago, in 1992 when Egypt’s Boutros Boutros-Ghali was elected the UN secretary general, ambassador Otunnu said he was assured of 14 of the 15 UN Security Council votes until Uganda worked overdrive to dissuade the country which was due to put his name for the vote from doing so.
He expressed irony that a government that twice deployed resources to sabotage his campaign for the top UN job had ironically turned to bankroll Dr Kazibwe’s run for the AU chief executive slot.

Poisoned chalice
Such vindictiveness, MP Nganda, argued was counterproductive. But there is another elephant in the diplomatic lounge against Uganda.

The country’s strength as the Great Lakes region’s strongman became its weakness, an AU staff said. Uganda’s dominant role in security and anti-terrorism operations, which has given President Museveni an outsized stature, made younger and more progressive leaders on the continent worried that electing a Ugandan to head the continental body would give Museveni unfettered means to indirectly run it.

Besides, technocrats shudder at the prospect of another imperial political executive overreach at the secretariat after their experience under former Malian president Alpha Oumar Konaré, who, while AU Commission chairman from 2003 to 2008, reportedly spurned working with ambassadors accredited to the Union’s Addis headquarters. He reportedly instead dealt directly with presidents, some of who were either his friends or allies.

It is the kind of possible millstone for former Tanzanian president Jakaya Kikwete, if he chooses to throw his hat in the ring as rumoured. Kenya is handicapped because it, through Erastus Mwencha, who alongside other commissioners got a six-month extension, has held the deputy chairperson position since 2008.

There is already a lot of jostling and diplomatic tinkering underway by countries to snap up the juicy AU jobs, including of commissioners. Ms Rhoda Peace Tumusiime, currently the Union’s commissioner for Rural Economy and Agriculture is among the exiting executives, meaning Uganda won’t successfully field any replacement and, therefore, is fated to give up the January voting round to others.

Senegal, which led the Ecowas boycott crusade, is understood to be planning to front the current UN secretary general’s special envoy for Central Africa Abdoulaye Bathily, an accomplished intellectual and diplomat, as a replacement for Dlamini-Zuma who, at least for now, is eyeing to succeed her former husband Jacob Zuma as South Africa’s president.

If the political odds in the Rainbow Nation stake against her in coming months, Ms Dlamini-Zuma, buoyed by unusual failure to first her replacement on the first attempt, could also bounce back into the race.

AU job for Senegal?
One diplomat said Bathily’s profile is the all-in-one wrap AU yawns and yearns for: A trade unionist, activist and pan-Africanist deeply immersed in independence struggles on the continent, including against apartheid leaders in South Africa and Portuguese colonialists in neighbouring Mozambique.

He is multilingual, worked closely with late Raheem Tajudeen, the general secretary of the Global Pan African Movement, and is poised to politically cash in on those old networks in addition to military experience strapped to his boots – both as a frontline professional and academic and author of the widely-cited The Military and Militarism in Africa articles.

On a continent fraught with conflicts, military macho is largely admired as an asset. In Bathily’s case, however, more democratic reforms by his country’s president Macky Sall, including reducing years on his own tenure, remove the risk of Dakar’s presidential dominion when the former were in-charge.

Senegal must prepare to make concessions, and cut backdoor deals, to clear the road for its presumptive candidate. One such deal could be with Nigeria, the region’s juggernaut, which is understood to be plotting to wrest the powerful Commissioner for Peace and Security position from Algeria.

Botswana’s Venson-Moitoi remains in the race and the 26 votes obtained in the inconclusive July election put his to a strong re-start unless Gaborone opts out. Ms Dlamini-Zuma could still spoil things for Botswana if she makes a comeback because South Africa will deploy its clout to retain the job. Whether or not that happens, and if Senegal and Rwanda field candidates, North Africa will hold the first game-changing votes to hunt although a winner is unlikely in January 2017 until the last voting round.

If a regional bloc again chooses to boycott or sabotage the polls, the African Union which is in a flux under executives sure to exit in five months, will find itself mired in a political mud the way Uganda is after Kazibwe’s defeat.

THE KEY PLAYERS

Donald Kaberuka: Handling money and economic issues on the continent plugged him into the business and economic elite, and offered unfettered access to heads of state and government. Rwanda wants in his candidature to project the country’s rise from the ruins of genocide.

Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi: Finishing top during the inconclusive mid-month voting showed the Botswana foreign minister’s appeal, placing her on pedestal in a re-started campaign. If SADC field no candidate, she can rely on the clout of the region for success.

Abdoulaye Bathily: Being multi-lingual, his profile as an intellectual, experienced military man, pan-Africanist who fought against apartheid and current job as the UN secretary general’s special envoy for Central Africa wrap him up as an ideologue and formidable.

Specioza Kazibwe: After the July 18 loss in Kigali, her campaign spokesperson Sarah Kagingo says “instead of pushing [for] competition, Africa should now seek to cooperate.” Uganda is stuck and is likely to throw its weight behind another contender.

Dlamini-Zuma: If her political calculations to succeed the ex-husband as ANC leader and likely president of South Africa fail, she could make an about-face to retain her job. The failure to get a replacement on first attempt could buoy her.

Ambassador James Mugume, Uganda’s Foreign Affairs permanent secretary: “This means we have to go back on the drawing board and see the shape of the campaign and strategise.”

Otunnu speaks out

Speaking for the first time to this newspaper about the machinations which happened 24 years ago, in 1992 when Egypt’s Boutros Boutros-Ghali was elected the UN secretary general, ambassador Otunnu (pictured) said he was assured of 14 of the 15 UN Security Council votes until Uganda worked overdrive to dissuade the country which was due to put his name for the vote from doing so.
In the Wednesday interview, the former UN undersecretary for Children and Armed Conflict dismissed the common talk that Uganda had refused to sponsor his candidature, and said Kampala officials again sabotaged his bid for the same job when another chance opened up in 1997. Ghana’s Kofi Atta Annan instead took the coveted job.

He said: “I didn’t need (Uganda’s) sponsorship. The Museveni government’s [machination] was more insidious. I had all the votes necessary to win and there was no requirement for Uganda to sponsor my candidature, but the Museveni government went out of its way and they were able to scuttle that [bid]. It was sabotage and blockage, nothing else.”
Ambassador Mugume’s recollections of what he called the facts of the time are different. Ambassador Otunnu, he said, the first time sought the highest UN office as a citizen of Ivory Coast which decided to put forward the name of its foreign minister at the time for the same slot.
On the second attempt, the PS said President Museveni invited ambassador Otunnu to Uganda for preliminaries but the latter turned down the offer.
“I don’t think there was sabotage, but just the timing,” ambassador Mugume said.
Ambassador Otunnu, whose name has been suggested by some quarters as the most befitting Ugandan diplomat for the AU job, said after frustrating his bid, the saboteurs manufactured a “bare-faced lie” that he had renounced Ugandan citizenship and opted to be a Sierra Leonean national yet Museveni’s government while a year in office, in 1987, declined to offer him a new ordinary passport to substitute the old diplomatic one he held.

He expressed irony that a government that twice deployed resources to sabotage his campaign for the top UN job had ironically turned to bankroll Dr Kazibwe’s run for the AU chief executive slot.