What awaits Dr Besigye as he returns home

If a week is a long time in politics, then a month is an eternity. Opposition leader Dr Kizza Besigye, who is expected to return to the country tomorrow, will likely be confronted with a myriad of changes after more than a month since he left the country for Europe and North America.

Of course, the problems the country faces that he and the Forum for Democratic Change party have promised to change when they get to power, have not disappeared in the month he has been away, but there has been some business unusual.

Dr Besigye spent much of the election aftermath either under house arrest or in prison and this international trip in Europe and North America was the first since the end of the February 18 polls.

In the UK, the former presidential candidate kicked off his activities with an address at a Forum for Democratic Change UK Chapter organised event at London’s Hilton Hotel where he reiterated his stance of not giving up what he themed as a non- partisan struggle.

He was perhaps at his best when days later he delivered a lecture in the United States of America at the New York City Bar Association in New York under the theme “Fighting for Justice, the Rule of Law, and Democracy in Africa: Lessons from Uganda.”

Here, Dr Besigye introduced himself as a “prisoner” and a man “living under the shadow of the law—not in its brilliant and luminous radiance”. Dr Besigye, who is facing treason related charges, explained that he had only come to address the meeting with the “permission and grace of the Uganda High Court”. He explained what he termed as a breakdown of State institutions to benefit a few who have power and not the majority like it should ideally be.

At the Ugandan North America Association convention in Boston, Dr Besigye clashed with a section of legislators including speaker Rebecca Kadaga and her deputy Jacob Oulanyah after he accused them of wasting taxpayers’ money to attend the conference in Boston, Massachusetts.
In both UK and US, the Opposition leader addressed the media. In the US, he was hosted on Voice of America by Uganda-born American journalist and Voice of America senior editor Shaka Ssali. He was also hosted on BBC Focus on Africa in London.

Back in the UK for the second time in two weeks, Dr Besigye delivered a lecture at the influential London think tank, Chatham House themed on “Politics and the Demographic Shift: The role of the Opposition in Uganda”.
At the Uganda-UK investment forum in London, which capped his official public activities during the tour, he called on investors to deal with institutions and not individuals or cartels which fuels corruption.

What awaits him when he returns?
Through social media platforms, especially Twitter, the Opposition leader has publicly kept tabs with what is going on in the country and would occasionally react to a media report on certain matters such as the 10th Parliament being on “collision path with Ugandans” with their “obscene privileges in life and death”.
As he returns, Dr Besigye will be met by a largely bipartisan House when it comes to the members’ emoluments.

Even when his FDC party pronounced itself, particularly on the car issue and proposed an alternative, Dr Besigye, the face of the popular “defiance campaign” will come face to face with defiance against the party position from Opposition MPs, including FDC ones.

Dr Besigye, who is fondly called by his supporters as the people’s president, will find his nemesis President Museveni still President and consolidating his more than 30-year hold on to power.

Dr Besigye continues to reject the results by maintaining he won the polls and has even during his international trip continued calling for an internationally supervised audit of the results to reveal the true winner.

President Museveni was declared winner of the controversial polls with 60.8 per cent of the vote by the Electoral Commission, while Dr Besigye secured 35.4 per cent.

But the incumbent, who analysts and some ruling National Resistance Movement say has already set his eyes on the 2021 polls, is not resting.

Mr Museveni, who has been President since January 29, 1986, will clock 75 in 2019, during his last term in office which ends in 2021. By virtue of his age, he is constitutionally banned from standing for president again.

For the time Dr Besigye has been out of the country, President Museveni has been at work in Dr Besigye’s strongholds of Kampala and Wakiso districts. He has dished out money and other items to different youth groups to support their “development activities”.

It was in one of these President Museveni’s tours that Kampala minister Beti Kamya, a former influential Opposition figure, blew the lid off the speculation laced debate by assuring President Museveni of an 80 per cent win in Kampala in 2021, something that has eluded the incumbent. Like in the past when he has been second guessed, President Museveni is yet to state his position.

Compliant donors
In the run up to the elections, European and American envoys acted in unison, calling for political reforms ahead of the elections. And through their backed observation missions, they said the elections did not meet international standards.

In fact, the United States’ permanent representative to the UN, Ms Samantha Power in March described President Museveni as a risk to Uganda’s future stability due to what she termed as the government’s repressive behaviour.

“President Museveni’s actions contravene the rule of law and jeopardise Uganda’s democratic progress, threatening Uganda’s future stability and prosperity,” Ms Powers told a 15-member UN Security Council discussing Great Lakes region.

President Museveni responded by telling them off and assuring the donor countries of Uganda’s sovereignty. President Museveni told off donor countries to “concentrate on solving their problems.”

In the last one month, Dr Besigye has been in some of their cities, Uganda’s relationship with the US and the European Union, for example, seems to be getting better.
On Wednesday, it was announced that the US government had donated five helicopters to bolster Uganda’s war on terror. On the other hand, Uganda recently made a U-turn and agreed to sign a trade deal which it had earlier objected to with the EU. The EU remains Uganda’s second leading market for exports.

Business as usual in police
Police was on the spot for brutalising Ugandans, especially Dr Besigye’s supporters by the time he left for his tour. But the Opposition leader will be returning to a country where that debate has seemingly fizzled out.
Some police commanders have been tried in the police court while others involved in the brutality incidents are yet to face the courts of law.

In fact, those commanders on trial have called for the trial of their superiors who they say issued the orders they implemented and for which they now face trial.

“Mr chairman, it is unfair to charge us with excessive use of force yet we were implementing the directive of the strategic management of the police. The order was given to us on the eve of President Museveni swearing in,” former Kampala Metropolitan South Regional Police commander Andrew Kaggwa told the police court on September 14.

Inspector General of Police Kale Kayihura, one of the senior police officers indicted for the brutality exercised by his officers, appointed the Police Human Resource Development director Felix Kaweesi as the police spokesperson. The move was largely interpreted as an attempt by the Force to repair its image tainted by a string of brutality incidents and public relations nightmares.

Loss in new districts
In the just concluded by-elections in the new districts, the Opposition was dealt a bloody nose when their candidates lost in all while the ruling National Resistance Movement won with a landslide.

In previous by-elections, Opposition candidates tended to do better because they would put up a joint effort against the ruling party’s machinery.

Dr Besigye campaigned for the FDC candidates before leaving and as he returns to the country he will be confronted with the question of a divided Opposition.

what has since changed

MPs united by emoluments
Dr Besigye will be met by a largely bipartisan House when it comes to the members’ emoluments.

Museveni in his backyard
For the time Besigye has been out of the country, President Museveni has been at work in Dr Besigye’s strongholds of Kampala and Wakiso districts.

Donors cosy up to Museveni
On Wednesday, it was announced that the US government had donated five helicopters to bolster Uganda’s war on terror.

Business as usual in police
Police was on the spot for brutalising Ugandans, by the time he left for his tour. But he will be returning to a country where that debate has seemingly fizzled out.

Loss in new districts
In the just concluded by-elections in the new districts, the Opposition was dealt a bloody nose when their candidates lost in all while the ruling NRM won with a landslide.

Reactions

Thomas Ddumba, UK-based Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) strategist:

“The visits were a big success for Dr Besigye and FDC as a whole thanks largely to the involvement of younger, savvier operators. When these younger, open-minded and intelligent Ugandans dotted around the world heard that Dr Besigye was visiting abroad, they organised most of his events in New York and London, briefing global media houses of his visits, sharing quotes from his speeches, photos and videos and also pulling talent, skills and money together because they realise that it is not about just Besigye but the political future of the country. The conversation that Besigye started on his trip about a post-Museveni Uganda is hinged largely on the shoulders of Uganda’s younger generation, not old people in Uganda.”

Sabiti Makara, political scientist from Makerere University:

“I think his going out of the country was okay. Support is not only internal. There are supporters and donors outside Uganda, but also to take power you need support of other countries. I would like to think it is part of his broader strategy. It also gave him time to reflect on how he can lead this struggle going forward. This [Besigye’s return] could be another stage of the struggle.”

Richard Todwong, NRM deputy secretary general:

“Dr Besigye has been out of the country for many times and he always returned and caused no change. His [Dr Besigye’s] return is not something we are bothered about. People come in and go out of the country every day. The NRM’s concern is the welfare of Ugandans. We are concerned with how we can deliver services to Ugandans.”