Who will Amuriat choose to lead Opposition in Parliament?

Jockeying for key positions in the leadership of the Opposition at Parliament is quietly brewing within the ranks of the Opposition, with MPs silently outmanoeuvring each other in the desperate bid to win the favours of the appointing authority.
The Opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party typically reshuffles its leadership in Parliament after every two and a half years but the fractious contest that ended with Patrick Amuriat Oboi dethroning Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu from the FDC presidency means decision time may be sooner rather than later.

Leader of Opposition in Parliament (LoP) Winnie Kiiza and her team were appointed in May 2016 and their positions would ordinarily be reviewed after two and a half years in November but the fallout from the polarising election of Mr Amuriat may bring the review forward.

If Gen Muntu had retained the FDC president’s seat, the current leadership of Parliament would have been favourites to retain their positions. Mr Amuriat’s victory, however, threw a spanner in the works.
Noises over the positions at Parliament instantly emerged the moment Mr Amuriat was declared winner of the FDC presidential elections on a chilly November 24, 2017, night at Namboole stadium.

The core leadership of the Opposition in Parliament spiritedly backed Gen Muntu and even called Mr Amuriat’s bluff after his victory in Namboole, challenging him to fire them as some of his supporters were openly demanding.
Ms Kiiza was a key figure in Gen Muntu’s election taskforce while Kira Municipality MP Ssemujju Nganda (Opposition Chief Whip) was the chairman of the Elect Muntu Taskforce.

Ms Kiiza was behind Gen Muntu even during the 2012 FDC presidential election when the General defeated Budadiri West MP Nandala Mafabi.
In the run-up to the elections, Mr Ssemujju wrote a scathing piece in The Observer saying that Mr Amuriat was an unknown entity, an article that particularly riled the current party president’s supporters.

Muntu backers
Gen Muntu was also backed by Angeline Ossegge (chairperson Public Accounts Committee), Abdu Katuntu (chairperson Committee on Commissions, Statutory Authorities and State Enterprises [Cosase]) and Reagan Okumu (chairperson Local Government Accounts Committee).
Gen Muntu also had the backing of Independents Gerald Karuhanga (PAC vice chairperson) and Anita Among (vice chairperson - Cosase).

One MP that has come under direct fire in the past is Ms Among, who FDC leaders accuse of being close to President Museveni. FDC’s National Executive Committee (NEC) has discussed the conduct of Ms Among before and toyed with the idea of firing her.
The decision to fire Ms Among was only deferred after some FDC leaders warned that there are many in FDC who equally deal with Mr Museveni and singling out the Bukedea Woman MP would potentially open a Pandora’s Box.

Ms Among openly works with Mr Museveni and is a known powerbroker at Parliament for MPs who are keen on meeting the President. She has even openly admitted to taking money from Mr Museveni for “mobilisation activities”.
Her chances of retaining the position of Cosase vice-chairperson are remote given her open dealings with Mr Museveni that have attracted the wrath of her colleagues in the Opposition.

Deputy Opposition Chief Whip Roland Kaginda (Rukungiri Municipality) and Government Assurances Committee chairperson Hassan Kaps Fungaroo (Obongi County MP) supported Mr Amuriat and are favourites to either retain their positions or eat big in the imminent reshuffle.
Buhweju County MP Francis Mwijukye, who FDC nominated to the influential Appointments Committee, is a rising star who backed Mr Amuriat in the election and also stands a chance of winning an appointment to a committee position.

Balancing act
Mr Amuriat will have to tread a tight rope between firing MPs who did not support his presidential bid and be seen as vindictive, or put up with working with the leadership at Parliament that does not have confidence in his leadership.
Ms Sarah Eperu, the spokesperson of the FDC Womens’ League, says it would be “unfair” for Mr Amuriat to be accused of vindictiveness if he chooses to wield the axe on the Opposition leaders at Parliament.

“They should not cause a storm in a tea cup. They knew that there would be changes after two and half years and I cannot see the reason why they should panic. The tradition of changing after that period is a matter of procedure,” Ms Eperu says.
A source at Najjanakumbi says Mr Amuriat is frustrated that he has issued summons to the leaders at Parliament for meetings which they have snubbed on several times.

The LoP is required to present monthly reports to the Working Committee chaired by the party president but Ms Kiiza has reportedly not been submitting such reports.

When Gen Muntu won the FDC elections in 2012, he fired Mr Mafabi as LoP and replaced him with Mr Wafula Oguttu in 2014. Mr Mafabi had lost the party presidency to Gen Muntu in an election he said was not free and fair. His team had petitioned against Gen Muntu’s win but the petition was thrown out. Gen Muntu accused Mr Mafabi of not furnishing him with periodic reports as LoP.

Mr Oguttu had backed Mr Mafabi against Gen Muntu, and the new party leader’s decision to appoint him LoP was seen as a move meant to take the sting out of any backlash the Mafabi group could have thought of igniting.
What remains to be seen is whether Mr Amuriat will fire pro-Muntu leaders in Parliament, and if so, who he will replace them with. It may turn out to be a delicate balancing act.

Dr Kizza Besigye, the party’s first president and influential Opposition figure, may likely be a key influence on how Mr Amuriat proceeds with whatever he intends to do regarding the reshuffle.

Dr Besigye last week met Opposition MPs at Parliament but the matter of the imminent reshuffle was not discussed.
A follow-up retreat between the MPs and Dr Besigye was agreed on, and it may potentially discuss the matter of the disconnect between the leadership at Parliament and that at the FDC headquarters in Najjanakumbi.

Options
Mr Moses Byamugisha, who contested in the 2017 FDC presidential race, says Ms Kiiza should be retained as LoP if she is willing to extend an olive branch to Amuriat’s leadership at Najjanakumbi.

“Because of the internal dynamics in FDC where we are trying to heal from the presidential election and the Kasese factor which has demonstrably shown to be a strong FDC block vote, it would be important to retain Ms Kiiza,” Mr Byamugisha says.
The decision, of course, ultimately lies with Mr Amuriat. And, in case he decides to make changes, what are his options?
Mr Mafabi, who served as LoP between 2011 and 2014, and Prof Ogenga Latigo, who served as LoP between 2006 and 2011, could be in the running for the position. Mr Mafabi is close to Mr Amuriat and some would consider appointing him LoP as a decision to close himself to the people in his close-knit circle.

Prof Latigo, who has lately adopted a laid back approach to FDC matters, may provide Mr Amuriat with an opportunity to escape the two camps – his and Gen Muntu’s. Dokolo District Woman MP Cecilia Ogwal, who is said to have been Dr Besigye’s first choice for LoP before pressure was brought to bear on him to appoint Mr Mafabi in 2011, is another remote possibility for the position.
Obongi County MP Fungaroo, who is serving his third term in Parliament, is also said to be interested in the LoP job.
It is hard to get any of the FDC MPs to speak freely about the subject.
Mr Mafabi told Sunday Monitor that he is not keen on becoming LoP again and declined to audit the performance of Ms Kiiza as LoP.

“That is a dangerous question,” Mr Mafabi responded when asked to rate the performance of Ms Kiiza.
Mr Oguttu, the immediate former LoP who is now out of Parliament, was also not willing to discuss the performance of the LoP and the ongoing manoeuvring in the FDC Parliamentary Caucus over the imminent reshuffle, either.

For the Opposition Chief Whip’s office, Rukungiri Municipality MP Roland Kaginda has been touted as a potential candidate.
Whatever Mr Amuriat does as far as the reshuffle is concerned, he will most likely have in mind the election he will face in about two-and-a-half years’ time, in 2020, since he offered to serve a three-year term and not five years in order to align the term of the FDC president with those of the other members of the party’s executive.

The delicate decision he will have to make will be whether to consolidate his base by appointing his core backers, reach out to those who did not support him by retaining them, or look beyond the two groups and appoint to the position of LoP a figure viewed to be neutral.