It will go down to the wire

The first four points from two games have not only seen Uganda top Group E of the 2015 Orange Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers.

They have raised Ugandans’ expectations to excitement levels so high they see Morocco in that part of the brain reserved only for mirages.

The exhilaration is hardly misplaced given that the four points have come off a hard-fought draw in Ghana and a comfortable 2-0 victory over seasoned Afcon campaigners Guinea at Namboole.

More so, the extra strike by Uganda has them on top of Ghana on goal difference with four games to go.
Yet we have been in this position before but still piled on our years of absence from Africa’s most prized tournament.

In the 2012 Afcon campaign, Uganda thrashed Angola 3-0 before the goalless draw in Kenya saw the then Bobby Williamson team assume table leadership with the same points from the same games as today.

The Cranes went on to top the group until the last day when another goalless draw with Kenya coupled with a 2-0 win for Angola in Guinea Bissau continued Uganda’s wait.
Had the same format of two table toppers qualifying automatically for Morocco been used then, Uganda – who finished on 11 points, one behind Angola, would have qualified.

Then in the 2004 qualifiers, Uganda also beat Ghana 1-0 in Kampala before drawing goalless away to Rwanda only to self-destruct on a stupid fetish in the return and lose 1-0 to the Amavubi. They, in the end, qualified to watch the tournament in Tunisia on TV.

So the four points from the first two games is a place we have been before, albeit not qualifying. But there is no dismissing that it is a fantastic place we find ourselves in.

Cranes coach Micho Sredojevic, in the job since May 2013, can draw from the aforementioned examples to ensure no miscarriage happens again this time round.

And that starts with the third game of the campaign when Uganda welcome Togo at Namboole on Saturday well aware that the Cranes have won only two ‘third’ game of qualifiers in the last eight editions, lost five and drawn only once.

The Serbian, of all people, knows that the fight will carry on even if Uganda were to pick four points from the back-to-back games against Togo, with the return next Wednesday in Lome. And overzealous Ugandan fans must not get carried away as well.

Permutations favouring Uganda
For some reason, even with the scandals surrounding their team following a disreputable World Cup in Brazil, it is hard to imagine Ghana not qualifying from this group. In fact, it is fair to say qualification is between Uganda, Guinea and Togo.

Ghana have the most talented and experienced players of the lot in Group E, and all group-mates will agree that the Black Stars have underperformed thus far, albeit Uganda’s marked improvement must not go unnoticed.
The Black Stars are also arguably the only team that can walk anywhere in the group and win a game away from home as seen in their come-from-behind 3-2 win in Togo.

So Uganda should look to joining Ghana and they must do that by ensuring their place is confirmed before November 19 when they face Guinea away. We all know the Cranes behaviour when it is a pressure, final game – moreover away.

To avoid that, Uganda must beat Togo on Saturday, pick a point at least in the return next Wednesday, and beat Ghana in Kampala next month to move to 11 points. That way, it will not matter what happens in the final game away to Guinea.

All that assuming that Ghana will draw away to Guinea on Saturday before beating the Syli Nationale next Wednesday, which will leave the Black Stars on eight points.

Permutations against Uganda
Ghana can then beat Togo in their penultimate game at home to move level with Uganda on 11 points with the two qualifying for Morocco with a game to go.

Yet both Togo and Guinea are not entirely out of the equation. Unless they lose to Uganda on Saturday, Togo could still make it with victory at Namboole, three points in the return, which will move them to six points.

Another three points off Guinea at home before forcing a draw in Ghana and hoping Uganda drop marks against Ghana and Guinea would have Togo on 10 points and on the way to Morocco. This is of course the most unlikely of the events.

Guinea can qualify if they beat Ghana at ‘home’ this weekend and force a draw in Accra and Lome before dismissing Uganda in their final game of the campaign - as hosts. That would leave them with 11 points; well enough to qualify.
Saturday’s victory for Uganda – if it passes - will go some way in edging closer to Morocco but will definitely not decide the group.

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