Joining the queue: It’s no longer risky to try to unseat Museveni

Vulnerable? In less than two weeks, former Vice President Gilbert Bukenya declared he would challenge his former boss within the ruling NRM and for presidency and army generals spoke against Mr Museveni fronting his son, Brig Muhoozi Kainerugaba, for the presidency.

Is there something we do not know that makes those who know President Museveni increasingly confident that they can beat him at the polls or that he will soon vacate the national stage?
If not, what explains the clamour for his seat?

In a space of less than two weeks, former Vice President Gilbert Bukenya declared he would challenge his former boss within the ruling NRM and for the national presidency and two army generals spoke against Mr Museveni fronting his son, Brig Muhoozi Kainerugaba, for the presidency.

Brig. Kasirye Ggwanga called the Daily Monitor of his own volition to say that “a Muhoozi Project” would be “risky”. On the other hand, the Coordinator of Intelligence Services Gen. David Sejusa a.k.a. Tinyefuza called for an inquest into the possibility that officers sympathetic to “a Muhoozi Project” could have attempted to frame their counterparts who are thought to oppose it.

The generals are easier to silence, at least as far as voicing public criticism is concerned, since they are subject to the strict military code of conduct. In fact, the Chief of Defence Forces, Gen. Aronda Nyakairima, who Gen. Sejusa said was among those targeted for framing, swiftly reacted to the comments, declaring him out of order and reminding him of the army code.
A day after Gen. Aronda’s statement against Gen. Sejusa’s, we called up Brig. Ggwanga for a follow-up interview for this story but he declined to speak to us.

Prof. Bukenya also declined a follow-up interview, but for a different reason from Brig. Ggwanga’s. Prof. Bukenya said he had elaborated what he had to say in the interview Sunday Monitor ran a week ago and “I have nothing more to say at the moment.” Clearly, he was driven by political calculations while Brig. Ggwanga knows that the possibility of sanctions is real.

Why are NRM leaders silent about Bukenya’s bid?
But something is conspicuous. Since Prof. Bukenya, who famously refers to himself as the political mahogany, declared his intentions, there has been almost nothing in terms of reaction from high profile ruling party officials, a bit surprising considering how some of them reacted to Dr Kizza Besigye’s declaration that he would challenge his former boss in late 2000.
Then, senior officials in the government and the military quickly swung into action, with Prime Minister and NRM Secretary General Amama Mbabazi, who was then in charge of defence, famously saying Dr Besigye had “jumped the queue” to replace Mr Museveni.

Mr Mbabazi beat Prof. Bukenya to the party secretary general position in the party’s most recent delegates conference and he should probably consider himself higher up in the queue than Prof. Bukenya.

Why hasn’t he moved yet to remind Prof. Bukenya of the queue, or has the queue since disappeared?
Brig. Henry Tumukunde, then in charge of the military spy agency ISO, warned Dr Besigye that the guns left over from the Luweero war could be used against him. Brig. Tumukunde would later fall out with Mr Museveni too, over the move to delete the two-term limit for the presidency from the Constitution in 2005.

He was forced to resign as an army MP and later had to battle charges in the military court relating to critical statements he had made against the “Third-Term Project”.
He was convicted but let off with a warning just weeks ago. Had he been “dismissed with disgrace” from the army, which is the heaviest punishment he could suffer, he probably could have joined the opposition ranks too. Keeping him in the military will ensure that he keeps silent, at least for a while.

Other senior members of the government then, notably Mr Bidandi Ssali who has also since jumped ship to found a party of his own, said it was not the right time and Dr Besigye had rushed things.

Mr Museveni’s lieutenants should probably be making similar arguments now, especially since the President has dropped no hint yet that he could retire soon. Observers reckon the President has already switched into campaign mode, barely two years into his fourth elected five-year term.
The President’s press team has been busy in recent weeks, reporting on courtesy calls on Mr Museveni by delegations from different parts of the country at his country home in Rwakitura.
Some of the delegations have come from Acholi, where Mr Museveni has been pushing for swathes of land to be provided to industrialist Madhvani for sugarcane growing.

Recently, a picture released by the Presidential Press Unit showed a youth leader nearly collapsing under the weight of a sack of money, reportedly Shs250m, which Mr Museveni delivered to a group of partisan youths in Busoga. He went back to the area two weeks later.

Museveni unbeatable no more?
That Mr Bidandi also later fell out with Mr Museveni and stood against him in 2011, shows that even in his estimation, “the right time” for Mr Museveni to leave power is here. The only challenge is now about ability to remove him.
And removing Mr Museveni is a matter the top organs of NRM have not allowed party members to even imagine.

It is “bad manners” for anyone within the party to consider standing against “the leader of the revolution,” according to Mr Abbas Agaba, who worked in State House for some time and is now Resident District Commissioner for Serere District.
Accordingly, NRM’s Central Executive Committee (CEC) has built a reputation of refusing to approve the candidature of party members who show interest in challenging Mr Museveni for the party chair.

It has happened to Mr Felix Okot-Ogong, MP Dokolo County, Capt Ruhinda Maguru and Dr Elizabeth Nabatanzi, a former presidential aide. When NRM’s CEC sits again for the same purpose, sometime in 2015, it could be looking at people including Prof. Bukenya.

Will they just strike out his name and declare Mr Museveni unopposed like they have done before?
If they do, people like Mr Okot-Ogong may feel that Prof. Bukenya deserves it, after all he was a member of the previous CECs that insisted on having Mr Museveni unopposed. But should that happen, it could hand Prof Bukenya the opportunity he could be looking for.
In the Sunday Monitor interview, Prof. Bukenya said he would jump out of NRM and stand on his own should he be rigged out. Being denied his right to run for the party chair could present the spark.

But there are probably more members of CEC other than Mr Bukenya who could be interested in running for President. Mr Mike Mukula, the MP for Soroti Municipality and NRM’s regional vice president for eastern Uganda, had hinted on a number of occasions before he was convicted on corruption charges, that he would run for President in 2016.

Mr Mukula has not spoken of his presidential ambitions again since his release from jail after successfully appealing against his conviction. Mr Museveni donated Shs100m to finance Mr Mukula’s legal team.

Another possible candidate is Mr Mbabazi himself, who for years seemed to be competing with Prof Bukenya on who was more loyal to Mr Museveni. In the face of accusations that Prof. Bukenya was using the vice presidency to nurse his presidential ambitions, Prof. Bukenya shot back with a number of claims. For example, the Busiro North lawmaker said he was the originator of the campaign to change the Constitution to enable Mr Museveni to challenge for a third elected term in 2006.

On the other hand, Mr Mbabazi, to prove that he would never challenge Mr Museveni, said he would retire at the same time with Mr Museveni. But relations between Mr Museveni and Mr Mbabazi seemed to sour in the past one year or so, with Mr Mbabazi accused of using the platform of party secretary general to mobilise the NRM base to his advantage.

The question of whether anyone will challenge Mr Museveni within NRM and whether they will be allowed to stand can only be conclusively answered when the actual time comes.
But there are pointers that Mr Museveni, who on all past occasions has been “unanimously urged” by his party’s members to challenge for the national leadership, may no longer hold enough sway to ensure an automatic nomination.

Hajj Abdul Nadduli, the Luweero District chairperson, who is also the NRM vice chairman for Buganda region, says Prof. Bukenya “will definitely” stand against Mr Museveni for the party’s nomination if he gets the endorsement of the lower party structures.

“No hindrance can come against anybody who wants to stand for any position in the party,” Mr Nadduli says. But, we remind him, people who have sought to challenge Mr Museveni before have been prevented from doing so.

Hajj Nadduli says he cannot speak about processes he was not involved in. He replaced Prof. Bukenya as NRM vice chairman for Buganda in the 2010 delegates conference and the team he was part of has not had to make such decisions.

Role of expelled MPs
But the current CEC took the decision to expel four MPs – Kampala Central’s Muhammad Nsereko, Lwemiyaga’s Theodore Ssekikubo, Buyaga’s Barnabas Tinkasiimire and Ndorwa East’s Wilfred Niwagaba.

Some of these legislators are thought to back Prof Bukenya. Mr Nsereko, while campaigning for Prof .Bukenya in the Busiro North by-election recently, repeatedly urged the former vice president to run for president in 2016.

The MPs, who were recently expelled from NRM for opposing the party’s positions, are challenging their suspension in the courts of law, saying the process that resulted in their dismissal was unfair.

Opposition take
Observers say these MPs could have silent backers within NRM and probably military establishment, who by extension could end up backing Prof. Bukenya’s bid. The wider opposition also seems to view the former VP’s bid in good light; a move that could help them weaken Mr Museveni.

DP President Norbert Mao is the only presidential hopeful from the opposition who has spoken against Prof. Bukenya’s declaration of presidential intentions.
Mr Mao says Prof. Bukenya is saying things they have said for too long that the attention the professor is getting should rather go the “original” opposition against Mr Museveni. It is the same argument Mr Mao has had against Dr Besigye.

According to Mr Robert Sebunnya, a presidential advisor on Buganda affairs, “Prof. Bukenya needs to think very deeply on whether he will make it in 2016 and probably consider running in 2021.”
Mr Sebunnya says Prof. Bukenya is “still young” and should wait for when Mr Museveni retires. At 77 in 2021, Mr Museveni will be barred by law to compete for the presidency, which is limited to those below 75. Then Mr Bukenya will be 72.

Mr Sebunnya says Mr Museveni is “still very popular within Buganda and his relations with the Kabaka have improved in the recent past,” allowing Prof. Bukenya “no chance” to triumph.
When he was vice president, Prof Bukenya was accused of cultivating the Buganda and Catholic constituencies as a basis for his presidential bid. Time will tell whether Mr Bukenya can galvanise opposition against Mr Museveni or the opportunity will be snapped up by another figure, also “more likely to come from the NRM fold,” according to former Supreme Court Judge Prof. George Kanyeihamba.

emukiibi@ug.nationmedia.com