A people’s caucus can end mass robbery

What is needed now is a “People’s Caucus” between MPs and the population, to counter the latest Executive attempt at theft-motivated mass bribery and intimidation.

The current phase of the epic battle between Parliament and the presidency over who will control the oil industry is about a lot more than oil. I call it epic, as it has been raging for over a year now, starting with the various allegations of bribe-taking against various members of the Executive that were in US diplomatic communications on wikileaks.

Many more things are yet to come out. However, Ugandans need to become as concerned about purpose, as they are about processes, in this matter.

Looking back over the long period of NRM rule, we now see a picture of growing graft and impunity, as the dictatorship consolidated itself over the population. In the north, it used naked violence, in the south a combination of violence and chloroform.

Many people have now woken up, and none of them in their right minds can accept the possibility of this particular Executive having a final – or even just big- say in how oil exploration and production is regulated.

The basis for the fear is very clear: From the initial ghost soldier payroll scandals that mushroomed into huge defence procurement scandals; the graft around the privatisation process; the methods by which many government houses fell into private hands; the fights over the electoral commission budgets; the eating of Uganda Railways; the vanishing of donor funds to the health sector; the looting of the valley dams budget; the NSSF procurement wrangles; and “giving” away of so much public land from Amuru/Nywoya to Butabika, Nakawa and Naguru, it is clear that we are living through what is turning out to be the longest act of armed robbery in post-colonial Uganda’s history.

So what is so special about the oil issue, that makes it different from all the above?
For one, this issue will turn out to be the one that determines if Uganda continues to exist as a state or not.

The NRM has developed a method of ruling built around bribing any available opinion-leader of the moment into active or silent support. This applies also to the now nearly burnt-out “heroic” commanders of the NRA’s bush war.

The problem with blackmail is that it can work both ways. Over time, it is clear that many of such persons and groups are demanding an ever higher down payment for their continued “support”. This explains the Executive’s obsession with cash money.

I recently had a conversation with a very senior presidential adviser who assured me that the current calculation of revenue by the Executive for this presidential term was an expected $2.5billion to $3 billion from the Americans for continuing the role of regional policeman; some $2 billion from the budding oil industry; and some $70 million from the UK government for general governing. He was most contemptuous about the UK’s nyongeza and expressed the view that they would end up having little say in Ugandan matters going forward.

It would appear that this UK component is the one they are now demanding be refunded. It seems to have been shared out among the lower orders to keep them quiet as we prepare for the oil jackpot. This is perhaps why the control of oil revenue has become a life or death matter for the Executive. So, rather than speaking from a position of strength, the presidency is acting out of rising desperation. The sharing out of the oil industry is something that was organised behind Ugandans’ backs a long time ago.

Step one was to say nothing to anybody outside the gifted circle. Step two was to move to “securitise” the oilfields, using forces under the control of either the President, his brother, or his son. Step three was to begin prospecting only in those areas (such as game parks) where the Executive had a direct say. When the exploration began to move further afield, thus waking up the local population, then step four was to massively divert them into conflicts with one another.

The so-called “balaalo issue” has resulted in neither the “balaalo” whom the army evicted, nor the Bagungu who were claiming the land being in control of it as we speak. As for Bunyoro as a whole, their leadership were bamboozled with promises that the central government would help them recover the land they “lost” to Buganda in the process of colonisation. This was the root of the infamous Kayunga and Buruuli issues. But given that these are oil-bearing lands as well, it is no wonder that the issue remained unresolved.

In the meantime, the NRM “owners” went on to divide the expected proceeds of the industry among themselves; in terms of contracts, jobs and training for their children going back over decade. The danger posed to the NRM bosses by the parliamentary bid for control through rejecting article 9 of the Oil Bill is that all of this hard work will come to nothing. As a result, the patronage network that was being fed on the now-removed UK/EU funds will become very difficult to maintain.

More critically, the anticipated riches beyond what could ever have been amassed through stealing soldiers’ uniforms and the like will no longer be accessible. The pot is in danger of breaking at the doorstep, and taking the regime down with it.

The bad choices
They face two bad choices (as usual): Lose control of the industry and have to find some other kind of meat to throw to their greedy “supporters”, or use underhand means to force through an unpopular law which means that the price of getting support for it will skyrocket.

This is basically the Nigeria syndrome; by relying on oil revenues banked abroad from the land belonging to silenced natives, the regime frees itself from the need to tax the population and therefore be accountable to it. Instead, it is free to “dash” money to whoever’s support it may need at the time, and the peasants can go hang.

As the President manouvres around the NRM caucus, its members should be aware that it was their previous weak-kneed approach that led to this mess in the first place. If terms limits had been kept in place, they would not now be holding those uncomfortable conversations. What is needed now is a “People’s Caucus” between MPs and the population, to counter the latest Executive attempt at theft-motivated mass bribery and intimidation.

editorial@ug.nationmedia.com