What next for NRM after 27 years at the helm?

Man with a different approach. The National Resistance Movement is one of the longest-serving political parties not only in Uganda but across the continent. From the first bullet shot by then NRA guerillas to the most recent ballot cast in the General Election, so much water has gone under the bridge. However, scholars, activists and politicians think differently about NRM’s future. Sunday Monitor’s Eriasa Mukiibi Sserunjogi, attempts to answer the question; which way forward for NRM?

What Mr Babu doesn’t say is whether the discussions are centred on the leadership question, but there are indications that it is.

This is probably what inspires Mr Kiwanda and other critical NRM members like Lwemiyaga County MP Theodore Ssekikubo and his Kampala Central counterpart Muhammad Nsereko to speak out openly against NRM and Museveni?
Prof Barya thinks this possible.

He says “the ground is fertile; people are ready to listen to the opposition having been frustrated by NRM and Museveni.” But he writes off the older opposition parties, only focusing on FDC.

In Prof Barya’s view, the performance of Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu, recently elected president of Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and FDC’s ability to challenge NRM and Museveni will put determine whether NRM loses power democratically in the foreseeable future.

If NRM loses an election, Mr Mwambutsya predicts, most of its members would join whichever party would have won and NRM would almost crumble. Another factor that could work against NRM when it is out of power is its antagonism with Mengo, “which would make it suffer like UPC has suffered”. UPC, especially after losing power, has found it hard to mobilise in Buganda because of its brawls with Mengo in the 1960s.

Also, Mr Mwambutsya adds, the international connections that are thought to have contributed to NRM’s long stay in power “won’t be there anymore.”

Coup possible?

Prof Barya says in case there is a major crisis, like an economic crisis or Museveni dropping dead, an unconstitutional change of power is “possible”.
That is why, in Prof Barya’s view, “Museveni has created an international insurance policy for himself,” by not only banking on support from America, but also reaching out to other powers like China and Iran.

Museveni could just continue ruling

Barring a major crisis, Mr Khisa says, “Museveni could just continue ruling for a long time.” Mr Mwambutsya says this could especially be possible with the “explicit support or indifference from the West.”

The other possibility, Mwambutsya adds, is that when oil money starts flowing, Museveni could use it to entrench himself further in power.

Elly Karuhanga, a city lawyer who was an NRM legislator for a long time, also believes NRM can continue in power if it gets “born again”. He says the party should “confess its sins and repent”, something he says seems to be starting to happen especially “in the fight against corruption”.

Mr Karuganga says NRM must aim to tackle the new challenges of providing employment, health care and education, having managed to reinstate security. But he also warns that if the party is not reborn, it risks “having a disconnect between the young people and the founders of the party,” an indirect reference to the squabbles that have consumed the party in the recent past.
What if Museveni reforms and retires?
Mr Khisa says that Mr Museveni likes to take people by surprise and that between now and 2016, or a little later, he could embark on “sweeping” reforms to institutionalise the party. Afterwards, Mr Khisa says, he could embark on a process of transferring power and eventually stepping down.

Prof Barya also thinks Mr Museveni is probably planning to retire, “certainly not in 2016 but probably in 2021.” In case he retires, Prof Barya says, “he could be planning to install a puppet leader controlled by the inner circle or a direct family member.”

Possibility of splintering