What next for NRM after 27 years at the helm?

Man with a different approach. The National Resistance Movement is one of the longest-serving political parties not only in Uganda but across the continent. From the first bullet shot by then NRA guerillas to the most recent ballot cast in the General Election, so much water has gone under the bridge. However, scholars, activists and politicians think differently about NRM’s future. Sunday Monitor’s Eriasa Mukiibi Sserunjogi, attempts to answer the question; which way forward for NRM?

But would Mr Museveni’s anointed successor succeed? Probably yes, as far as taking over the party is concerned, but may be not as far as winning the national leadership.

This is what happened when former Kenyan President Arap Moi anointed Uhuru Kenyatta, son of founding President Jomo Kenyatta but a relative political novice, to take over KANU in 2001. Kenyatta did take over Kanu, but not the national presidency.

Mr Babu doesn’t want to compare Kanu with NRM, because, he says, Kanu was largely made up of members from another political group, the Kenya Africa Democratic Union (KADU). He says those who had come from KADU didn’t care what happened to Kanu, explaining the massive departures in 2002 when it lost power.

But if Mr Babu’s argument that members who cross from other parties don’t care about the fate of the party join, then NRM has to be very worried. Many of its members, including its chairman Mr Museveni, were originally members of other parties.

Many party members who were not happy with Moi’s choice quit the party, a scenario Mr Mwambutya and Mr Khisa say is possible should Museveni try to impose a successor on the party.

But what about the possibility of splintering even when Museveni is still in charge?
“I don’t expect a serious rebellion from within the party,” says Prof Barya. He expects Museveni to deal decisively with the vocal MPs, probably by expulsion. “If some members are expelled,” Prof Barya says, “the others would be afraid.” Going forward, he predicts, “whoever dissents (within NRM) will be undermined or harassed.”