Who will succeed MP Nabanda in Butaleja?

Perfect replacement. The search for a replacement for Cerinah Nebanda, the Butaleja Woman Member of Parliament who died under mysterious circumstances on December 14 last year, is underway. Campaigns started early this week in various sub-counties ahead of the February 18 by-election.

The hunt for votes in Butaleja triggered enormous excitement and renewed hope among many after the suspicious death of Cerinah Nebanda and the subsequent actions of the government, casting a blanket of suspicion in Butaleja.

Five candidates are vying for the seat. Innumerable promises have so far been made by the contestants as they traverse the district. The tempo of the debate and the issues that the five candidates articulate will either save or sink their personal fortunes and those of their respective parties.

Ms Peruth Munaba [Independent] started her campaigns in Busaba Sub-county, while Ms Betty Hamba [Independent] kicked off in Butaleja Town Council. Ms Sarah Logose [Independent] started in Mazimasa Sub-county, Ms Felistus Namwihiri [FDC] in Busolwe Town Council and Ms Florence Nebanda Andiru [NRM] opened the lid of her promises in Kachonga Sub-county.

The national census in 2002 estimated the population of Butaleja at about 157,500 while the annual population growth rate in the district was 3.3 per cent. Using those statistics, it is estimated that the population of the impoverished and rural district in 2010 was 204,300 with about 87,641 registered voters and 151 polling stations.
The ruling party’s electoral commission chairman, Prof. Elijah Mushemeza, revealed that the NRM had laid down a roadmap that would ensure Ms Andiru replaces her sister.

Pursuing the manifesto
“My sister passed away and I want to fulfil her manifesto. She fought for the common man, education, rights of women; which I am following through. Wherever she is, I am sure she feels happy now because I will not let her down,” said Ms Andiru.

Butaleja has been mainly pro-NRM and a no-go area for the Opposition, but the party candidate, Ms Andiru, has three hurdles to overcome: the suspicions over her sister’s death, the sudden change of mind by the mother, Ms Alice Numulwa, who had pinned government over her daughter’s death, and the alleged rigging of the votes in NRM primaries in favour of Ms Andiru.

Sub-counties in Butaleja that usually determine the winner are Budumba; which is mainly UPC, which is located in Bunyole West, while Kachonga and Mazimasa, mainly DP and NRM, are located in Bunyole East, where MP Emmanuel Dombo (NRM) comes from and is likely to peddle a lot of influence for his party.

But Mr Roger Wegulo, an NRM supporter, said: “When Ms Nebanda died, the first person to abuse the government over the death was her mother and then shortly she changes and endorses another child on the NRM ticket. Is she playing on our brains or is it true that government was involved in the death? These are the tough questions we need answered before we vote her.”

Mr Nathan Wangolo, also from NRM, says they want a person who goes by principle. “She [Ms Namulwa] made us hate the NRM but has made a total about-turn to sing NRM,” he said. After the ruling party was accused of rigging for Ms Andiru during party primary, it was inevitable that the race would see the entry of two NRM-leaning independents (Ms Hamba and Ms Logose).

There are other questions about Ms Andiru. Some voters in Butaleja like Mr Rashid Galama, said: “NRM’s endorsement of another member of the [same] family casts serious doubt whether she will contribute anything in Parliament for the people of Butaleja.”

“First, she is married in the UK and she just came to attend the burial. How do we give votes to a person who is a visitor? She has just changed her names from Ms Florence Andiru to Ms Florence Nebanda Andiru. Should we trust her? Do we see any democracy or promotion of one family?”

But her mother, Ms Namulwa, said her daughter was in the UK for studies and is not married.
Contrary to Ms Namulwa’s claim, during the NRM primary campaigns at Mabale Primary School in Butaleja Sub-county on January, 12, Ms Andiru told voters that she is married and has two children.
Another resident, Mr Eldadi Haumba, says all they know about Ms Andiru is that she went to Ntinda View Secondary School and after Senior Four she left the country.

Ms Andiru is stumping for votes, telling likely voters that like her late sister, she believes in humanity first. “It is my people first. I stand, not against anybody, but try to succeed where our MPs failed to score and I want to promise I will score for the people of Butaleja,” she said in an interview.

Although NRM has dented its image through the continued in-fighting between Ms Dorothy Hyuha, a former Butaleja MP and now High Commissioner to Tanzania, and Mr Dombo, the opposition also seems not to have its house in order. Political analysts, however, say that Butaleja has tended to vote their politicians based more on their individual character as opposed to their political affiliation --- which gives an advantage to Ms Namwihiri.

Unfulfilled pledges
Ms Olive Kataike, a sub-county opinion leader at Mazimasa, says the ruling NRM has failed to fulfill pledges it made way back in 2006 and 2011.

“NRM has made many promises here, including tarmacking the Mbale-Butaleja-Namutumba road. We have waited for this but there is nothing on ground. The President requested us to give him our votes and in return he promised give us many things, but he has given us nothing and the opposition is capitalising on this to decampaign us,” Ms Kataike said.

Although the government delivered a boat estimated at Shs3.3 million for Isilo Island in Nawanjovu Sub-county, the unfulfilled promise of a tarmacked road, widespread unemployment among youth, biting poverty and lack of safe drinking water in the district are issues which continue to crop up in campaign speeches.

Hurdles for opposition
Although the leading opposition party, FDC, has higher chances after they fielded Ms Namwihiri, many supporters are still divided over the recent party polls that saw Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu beat the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament, Mr Nathan Nandala Mafabi, to the party’s top seat.

Mr Michael Mukholo says the group that did not support Mr Mafabi fielded Ms Susan Baluka, who unsuccessfully vied for the same seat in 2011.

“Apparently, these are divided over whether to support Ms Namwihiri or not and are waiting for party officials to meet them over who to vote for, something that takes FDC back even when they seem to be having an upper hand in the race,” said Mr Mukholo.

Mr Namwihiri appears to be popular among youth and the elite. She derives her strength from the controversy over the death of Nebanda, her eloquence, the switching of goal posts by the mother of the late MP and the considerable influence of Mr Mafabi.

Ms Juliet Nabwire, who lost the FDC primaries to Ms Namwihiri, says: “I decided not to come as an independent because I did not want to divide the party. This race is for the people of Butaleja, not for any person who sits in Kampala. Ms Namwihiri is a better candidate. She has what it takes to be an MP.”

Religion
Although religion used to play a central role in the local politics during the time Bunyole County was still part of Tororo District, today it appears to have been overtaken by money.

“In the past you needed to be a Muslim to be elected in any position in the district because Muslims outnumber Christians. Everything was based around this but the advent of Movement politics and poverty changed things here; people now look to a person who gives out money,” said Ms Nabwire.

Busolwe Town Council in Bunyole West, which is predominantly Muslim, may decide who takes it. Since there is no Muslim candidate, money is likely to play a big role here.

Independents
Ms Munaba, the deputy mayor for Makindye Division in Kampala, started her campaigns with an appeal for people to re-think Butaleja politics.
Ms Hamba, a social scientist, launched her campaigns with a promise for effective representation and development.

Daughter of “money owner”
Ms Hamba, daughter of Mr Jalla Higenyi (Mwene bese - locally meaning the owner of money), the proprietor of Ntinda View College, could have been the automatic choice given the fact that her father has helped many children from poor homes in Butaleja get free education in his schools, but the story is different. Ms Logose, also a social scientist, started with a promise to have a transparent representation that is going to be responsive to the needs of the poor woman.

Although Ms Logose and Ms Munaba come from Busolwe Town Council and Busaba Sub-counties, respectively, their chances of sailing through in these two sub-counties are minimal as both are only “visitors in the place”, according to pundits.

“They have not lived among the people and so cannot expect to win affection,” one source said. Separately, Mr Mafabi points at the dangers of a trend he said is evolving in Uganda, where the NRM now wants families to retain control of particular seats in politics as long as they support the ruling government.

“Our country needs seasoned, thinking and mature people who have names to protect but I see a pattern of monarchies emerging, which is like in athletics where you pass on the baton to another member of the family,” Mr Mafabi said.

Poverty, disillusionment and a sense of betrayal appear to be the issues at the heart of this race, another by-election likely to test the ruling party’s credentials having already lost to the opposition in Jinja, Masaka, Entebbe, Luwero, Bushenyi and Kasese, among others.

dmafabi@ug.nationmedia.com