Expect no surprises from Obama

First term demand. So far what America has needed are strong men who, like the Ugandan President, tend to be the primary institution of state. Now, with a second term under his belt, it’s unlikely that there will be any surprises in Obama’s African engagement and none is really expected.

As Americans stood patiently in queues to cast their votes, many Ugandans were marvelling at the ridiculous soap opera of cannibalistic corruption playing out in the newspapers. So severe has been the public anger and disgust about corruption that this writer attempted to invent a word for it. The closest was the Luganda word for cannibals, abasezi, which is also the word for night dancers.

What, with the ghosts involved, ghost teachers, pensioners, pupils, ambulances and so forth, the apparition of progress seemed to contrast night and day with the mood after President Barack Obama’s victory speech.

Not in recent memory has an American election been inaugurated when governance is being vigorously debated as a domestic and foreign affairs hot potato. The withdrawal of aid by donors like Ireland (where the logic of charity in an economic slump made it national news) was met with apologies and an offer of a refund.

The idea of the taxpayer offering the corrupt a “bailout” may have offended more than it placated but such has been the pressure that the government has been facing. Uganda did share a light moment with the United States. The last Ugandan election, a year ago like the American one, was the most expensive.
There was more however.

While human rights and governance tend to be the main fodder for public debate of what America means to Ugandan politics, the other evil sister of security was also in the news. A United Nations report sparked a historic reaction by Kampala.

The country threatened to halt cooperation with the UN over its accusations that it was aiding a humanitarian disaster in the Democratic Republic of Congo. As the US presidential campaign entered its last days, Dr Ruhakana Rugunda, who once chaired the UN Security Council on behalf of Uganda, was seeking meetings with senior American diplomats over the matter. On the face of it, the Ugandan reaction to the report seemed extreme. But maybe not.

The report had named senior Ugandan political and military leaders and raised the risk of sanctions against them. It remains to be seen which direction the Congo quarrel will take. The many moving parts of Uganda’s foreign relations orbit around its powerful presidency, whose politics is always a good place to start in, understanding why, for instance, relations with America under a new re-elected president matter.

As seen, the events this month showed up the dilemma of the relationship between Kampala and the West as often a bargain between governance, political reform and security. Add to this mix the “resource race” between Western companies and governments with China, which also saw a largely ignored leadership change of its own. Ultimately if aid, as leverage, is used to pursue security goals it is leveraged back by governments.

Preferring institutions to strong men
This reciprocity favours the status quo. Put differently, Obama may claim that what Africa needs is strong institutions and not strong men but in reality him and other US presidents past have relied on strong men at the expense of the same institutions.
Still his re-election is big news forcing newspapers like this one to print extra editions for the day.

It’s not unexpected that this would happen. America’s place as a super power alone guaranteed that its dramatic race to the White House would grab attention. The election is to politics and public service what the World Cup is to football. Both are major television events.

By contrast the meeting of the Communist Party Congress that is ushering in China’s new leaders passed quietly. There are no red flags to match the Obama-Biden or Romney-Ryan stickers on the SUV’s navigating Kampala’s narrow roads
But there is more to the last two US elections.

Mr Obama’s personality, race and African origins (he is practically a neighbour) have made his leadership of America both a political and cultural phenomenon. The Obama grocery shops, butcheries, barbershops that pop up like old election posters, are a reminder of how big 2008 was. Most politicians in Uganda would be hard pressed to name the four pillars of Obama’s “US policy toward sub-Saharan Africa” announced in June. Even the Ugandan political opposition, who look to Washington DC like newly hatched chicks do to mother hen when the shadow of the kite hovers above, barely squeaked.

The policy, according to professional foreign policy watchers and pundits, does not say anything new. Thus with his re-election the four-pillar strategy will broadly focus on strengthening democratic institutions, spurring economic growth, advancing peace and security and promoting opportunity and development. The nuts and bolts of this new strategy are a familiar territory.

When a US Embassy delegation visited the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to present the policy, State Minister Henry Okello Oryem waved it aside. As he recalled it later, his main message to the professional diplomats was that Mr Obama should “style up” and pay a courtesy call to East Africa. “ He should acknowledge his roots and at least visit Kenya. That’s the right thing to do.”

Mr Oryem, who serves an administration that has been around since Ronald Reagan was at the White House, pointed out that US engagement in Africa was at arm’s length.

Oryem’s Chinese message
“Consider the Chinese. Every two years they meet with African leaders. One year it is in China, the other year its in Africa. The Chinese President bothers to call. There has never been a US-Africa summit,” Mr Oryem said to his guests.