Who will succeed MP Nabanda in Butaleja?

Perfect replacement. The search for a replacement for Cerinah Nebanda, the Butaleja Woman Member of Parliament who died under mysterious circumstances on December 14 last year, is underway. Campaigns started early this week in various sub-counties ahead of the February 18 by-election.

Unfulfilled pledges
Ms Olive Kataike, a sub-county opinion leader at Mazimasa, says the ruling NRM has failed to fulfill pledges it made way back in 2006 and 2011.

“NRM has made many promises here, including tarmacking the Mbale-Butaleja-Namutumba road. We have waited for this but there is nothing on ground. The President requested us to give him our votes and in return he promised give us many things, but he has given us nothing and the opposition is capitalising on this to decampaign us,” Ms Kataike said.

Although the government delivered a boat estimated at Shs3.3 million for Isilo Island in Nawanjovu Sub-county, the unfulfilled promise of a tarmacked road, widespread unemployment among youth, biting poverty and lack of safe drinking water in the district are issues which continue to crop up in campaign speeches.

Hurdles for opposition
Although the leading opposition party, FDC, has higher chances after they fielded Ms Namwihiri, many supporters are still divided over the recent party polls that saw Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu beat the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament, Mr Nathan Nandala Mafabi, to the party’s top seat.

Mr Michael Mukholo says the group that did not support Mr Mafabi fielded Ms Susan Baluka, who unsuccessfully vied for the same seat in 2011.

“Apparently, these are divided over whether to support Ms Namwihiri or not and are waiting for party officials to meet them over who to vote for, something that takes FDC back even when they seem to be having an upper hand in the race,” said Mr Mukholo.

Mr Namwihiri appears to be popular among youth and the elite. She derives her strength from the controversy over the death of Nebanda, her eloquence, the switching of goal posts by the mother of the late MP and the considerable influence of Mr Mafabi.

Ms Juliet Nabwire, who lost the FDC primaries to Ms Namwihiri, says: “I decided not to come as an independent because I did not want to divide the party. This race is for the people of Butaleja, not for any person who sits in Kampala. Ms Namwihiri is a better candidate. She has what it takes to be an MP.”

Religion
Although religion used to play a central role in the local politics during the time Bunyole County was still part of Tororo District, today it appears to have been overtaken by money.

“In the past you needed to be a Muslim to be elected in any position in the district because Muslims outnumber Christians. Everything was based around this but the advent of Movement politics and poverty changed things here; people now look to a person who gives out money,” said Ms Nabwire.

Busolwe Town Council in Bunyole West, which is predominantly Muslim, may decide who takes it. Since there is no Muslim candidate, money is likely to play a big role here.

Independents
Ms Munaba, the deputy mayor for Makindye Division in Kampala, started her campaigns with an appeal for people to re-think Butaleja politics.
Ms Hamba, a social scientist, launched her campaigns with a promise for effective representation and development.

Daughter of “money owner”
Ms Hamba, daughter of Mr Jalla Higenyi (Mwene bese - locally meaning the owner of money), the proprietor of Ntinda View College, could have been the automatic choice given the fact that her father has helped many children from poor homes in Butaleja get free education in his schools, but the story is different.

Ms Logose, also a social scientist, started with a promise to have a transparent representation that is going to be responsive to the needs of the poor woman.

Although Ms Logose and Ms Munaba come from Busolwe Town Council and Busaba Sub-counties, respectively, their chances of sailing through in these two sub-counties are minimal as both are only “visitors in the place”, according to pundits.