Is Mao ahead of Besigye?

Mr Mao & Dr Besigye

Could Democratic Party flag bearer Norbert Mao be trying to endear himself to Museveni’s supporters in the event he relinquishes power in 2016, or he merely wants to replace Inter-Party Cooperation’s Kizza Besigye as opposition figure? Asks Mike Ssegawa.

A couple of days before the Afrobarometer, a research body, released their survey results, one candidate, whom the poll gave the third place with only three per cent of the sample votes had made his own opinion poll results public.

Like the survey, Mr Mao handed Mr Museveni victory, claiming the second position would go to himself. He sounded like he can beat the official opposition leader, Dr Besigye.

The survey results released mid last week indicated that if the election was held between November 18 and December 7, President Museveni would win with 66 per cent followed by Dr Besigye with 12 per cent.

But why did Mr Mao have to say, “I am number two and President Museveni is still number one”? Mr Mao’s proclamation comes at a time when there is a debate on the likely impact of his candidature to the Presidential election outcome. Not even the Afrobarometer poll results would put to an end this burgeoning debate.
Now that the poll places Mr Museveni in favourable position, has even heightened the debate on whether it could be Mr Mao who is helping the odds to swing in the incumbent’s favour.

Main challenger
During 2001 and 2006 elections, Dr Besigye was the main challenger to Museveni’s presidency. He polled 28 per cent in 2001 and his percentage rose to 37 per cent in 2006, against Mr Museveni’s 69 per cent and 59 per cent respectively.

In both elections Dr Besigye won the bloc vote for northern Uganda and West Nile, and also enjoyed a big majority in most urban centres around the country, Teso Sub-region and Kasese area.

With Mr Mao, an Acholi, entering what has for the previous two occasions been a two-horse race, the northern race is wide open. Mr Mao’s entry could mean that Dr Besigye may never enjoy the northern Uganda bloc vote again.

In the 2001 presidential elections Dr Besigye polled 82 per cent of the votes in Gulu, a district where Mr Mao has been chairman for the last five years, against Mr Museveni’s 13 per cent. In Kitgum District, the FDC leader polled 76 per cent while in Pader he got 77 per cent of the votes as compared with Mr Museveni’s 19 per cent and 18 per cent score respectively.

In the entire northern region Mr Museveni scored below 20 per cent of the votes cast, recording his worst performance in the country, while Dr Besigye took nearly the remaining 80 per cent of the votes cast in the region.

Return of peace
Will Gulu which was in history a DP stronghold once again return to the fold due to the Mao factor? With Mr Mao winning in Gulu and by extension northern Uganda, this will affect none but Dr Besigye’s overall performance.
This prediction would not be carrying any weight had it not been for other factors that pundits believe will also have a significant influence on the voting pattern in the north.

The fact that both leaders of the oldest political parties, DP’s Mao and Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) Olara Otunnu come from the north, might significantly affect Dr Besigye’s chances.

Recently, an elder from Gulu, one Moses p’Bitek was quoted saying: “Both of them (Mao and Otunnu) are our sons. But we shall vote for the one who will be running stronger.” The Afrobarometer poll gives Mr Mao and Mr Otunnu, the same percentage of votes.

Peace that northern Uganda is enjoying today, after 20 years of insecurity and instability caused by Joseph Kony’s Lord Resistance Army (LRA) rebels, will be one of the factors to shape voting patterns in the region in February next year.

The north was voting as a bloc to express their resentment against President Museveni and his NRM government’s failure to end the war. Now that the war is over and northern Uganda buzzing with new life, other factors such as the ones elaborated above, will determine the voting.

Like Dr Besigye, Mr Mao is a charismatic opposition politician who has served in several prominent positions. He recently referred to himself as “most qualified and seasoned political opponent of President Museveni.”

But Mr Mao’s main bonus over his fellow Mr Museveni challengers is the fact that unlike many of them, he has never served the President despite the many offers the President has advanced to him over the years. Dr Besigye and People’s Progressive Party (PPP) candidate Bidandi Ssali, were ministers in President Museveni’s government.

Dr Besigye, in the 1980s, served as Minister of State for Internal Affairs and Minister of State in the President’s office. He also served as the National Political Commissar for NRM before becoming the Commanding Officer of the Mechanised Regiment in Masaka and Chief of Logistics and Engineering in 1990s until he was made a Senior Military Adviser to the Ministry of Defence shortly before his retirement from the army in 2000.

Accordingly, anti-Museveni voters might look at Mr Mao as a more reliable candidate than Dr Besigye who once served their “enemy”. Secondly, that Dr Besigye shares his origin with President Museveni (both men come from Western Uganda), Mr Mao might become the beneficiary of the “It is time up for Banyankole” votes.

Above all, there are circumstances that have changed the voting atmosphere from that of 2006. The events leading to the Election Day in February 2006 might have created a sympathy vote for Dr Besigye.

For example, Dr Besigye was arrested on November 14, 2005 on allegations of treason, concealment of treason, and rape, charges which many people believed were fabricated to stop Dr Besigye from challenging Mr Museveni. Dr Besigye was arrested in a rather brutal manner, just two weeks after his return to Uganda from exile in South Africa. His day of home-coming, October 26, 2005, was also the deadline for voter registration for the 2006 general elections.

This caused excitement among his supporters and other unenthusiastic voters who lined up around voter registration centres across the country to get their names on the register.

This won Dr Besigye a good percentage of both sympathy and “swing” votes.
However, the sentiments are a little different today. The courts have cleared Dr Besigye of all criminal charges, his campaigns have been almost free of state-inspired disruptions, and unlike the previous two elections when violence was vented against his supporters.

Different political season
Unlike in 2006 when Dr Besigye profited from the timing of constitutional amendment to lift the presidential term limits to allow President Museveni rule indefinitely, a move which annoyed a section of Ugandan voters, next year’s elections come at a time when that has become a non-issue.

Not even presidential candidates are raising it in the ongoing campaigns.
Like Mr Mao once said, “Being president of Uganda is a bit like being a rodeo rider. If you can hang on to this wild horse for 20 years, surely you are a person who should be a case study.”

By saying that President Museveni is still number one and himself as number two, could Mr Mao be trying to endear himself to supporters of this “case study” in the event Mr Museveni relinquishes power in 2016, or he genuinely pits himself ahead of Dr Besigye as the leading opposition figure?
Within a couple of months we shall have an idea, way beyond opinion polls.