Oil: Succession politics at play

Monday and Tuesday’s highly animated debate on the oil sector, instigated by a historic recall of the House, saw both opposition and ruling party MPs burry the political hatchet to place national interest above anything else. The political ramifications of this debate have not been lost on President Museveni, however, whose administration has often banked on the sheer might of the NRM’s numerical strength in the House for legislative support.

“How could they make this decision without us meeting first?” asked a visibly bemused Mr Museveni at a news conference on Wednesday, called in reaction to Parliament’s unanimous decision to set up an ad hoc committee to probe bribery claims in the oil sector.

The NRM leader has every reason to worry when trusted cadres such as Foreign Affairs Minister Sam Kutesa, Chief Whip John Nasasira and Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi, who many believe has inscribed his name on the presidential door as Mr Museveni’s successor, are publicly humiliated by corruption allegations.

Silent rebellion gathering mass
Talk is rife of a silent rebellion within the party - not least inspired by the secrecy shrouding the oil deals, as many look at a post-Museveni era, now manifesting itself in the decision by NRM MPs to gang with the opposition against his closest associates.

“Yes, it is a sign that the ruling party is divided,” says Prof. Mahmood Mamdani, celebrated Ugandan author, academic and political commentator. “Since it is time for a change in leadership, there is division among senior members of the party, especially those who see one another as competitors for the top job.”

It is also true that some of the younger generation in the NRM are taking a longer term view, as Prof. Mamdani argues, to act in response to what they perceive is the larger issue, the country’s future.

“We are asking what kind of country will these people hand over to us; will they hand over a shattered nation? Generations come and go,” said NRM MP Hamson Obua (Ajuri County). “All we are fighting for is transparency.” Mr Obua’s sentiments are shared by many within the NRM who say they are fed up with the patronage networks oiled by corruption and the agenda now is a system overhaul.

“If there is a rebellion, it is a rebellion against corruption,” says Butaleja MP Cerinah Nebanda. “We cannot keep quiet when our people are suffering and all this is happening when people are eating billions.”

Mr Museveni will use a scheduled retreat this week with his party faithful to discuss events in the House but more importantly, he will find moment to try and beat them back into line and restore order.

NRM deputy publicist Ofwono Opondo argued that disagreements seen on the floor hinted at internal jostling over who would succeed Mr Museveni.

“Obviously you cannot rule out the question of 2016 [presidential election] both within and outside,” he said.
On Wednesday, a day after Parliament concluded its oil debate, Cabinet convened for its usual weekly sitting only for the meeting to turn stormy as ministers accused each other of failing to come to the defence of their oil-graft accused colleagues.

It was a telling development that spoke at the heart of the apparent lack of cohesion within the NRM. If anything, the persona of the accused ministers did little to earn them any favour from both the front and back bench.

Writing in an op-ed piece this week Mr Opondo questioned the decision by Minister Amama Mbabazi to table a letter written by Tullow Oil to Speaker Rebecca Kadaga even before she received it and his subsequent response that he saw nothing wrong with his daughter getting into business with one of the oil companies.

“Should the petitioners pursue this line, it is difficult not seeing Mbabazi answering accusations of influence-peddling using his current and former offices to obtain the much undeserved letters from Tullow,” he wrote, “or trying to exonerate his adult children from alleged shoddy businesses.” However, that did little to prevent Mr Museveni from coming to the aid of his beleaguered allies, dismissing the oil bribe dossiers tabled on the floor as fabricated documents.

Instead of cooling tensions, the President’s decision has provided more ammunition to those who accuse him of shielding corrupt cronies.

MP Nebanja says the party’s troubles are down to “individuals who think they are more equal than others” citing George Orwell’s famous writing of a successful farmyard revolution by resident animals against the farmer going terribly wrong when corrupt pigs hijack it for their personal gain.

“They keep on hiding information from us and if they want all of this to stop, they should start treating us like equals,” she says.

While it is still not clear just how long the new found unity between opposition and ruling party MPs will last, it appears there is an apparent shift in loyalties for many of these lawmakers.

“The executive must prepare to face Parliament. This isn’t going to be a rubber stamp,” said Mr Obua. “If we maintain the way we have started, I am sure we shall be in a position to check the excesses of government.”

[email protected]