Preparing for the 2011 elections by arming the troops

President Yoweri Museveni took time off his busy schedule to preside over the passing-out of 2,500 youth who had completed their para-military/politicisation training on December 12.

While Ugandans are allowed to rise up in defence of the Constitution, rioting resulting from mass uprising is deemed illegal. In this context calls for the ‘people’ to stand up may be construed to be illegal incitement.

If it does, they want to offer an olive branch, possibly protection from prosecution for the crimes of incumbency.
Elections are key moments for people power revolutions which, however, are also the result of incumbents who breed the right conditions often right out of state houses.

Countries where the revolutions have occurred like the Philippines, the Ukraine or Romania or failed like in Iran recently share one thing- a legitimacy deficit. In Uganda it is possible to refer to the deficit in those 10 percentage points that the President has been losing in subsequent elections since 1996. But it is often the administrative illegitimacy of corrupt governments amplified by wanton corruption and violence against regime opponents that comes to a head when people are asked to go to the poll and offer an opinion on the future.

Trouble begins when the incumbent, despite this public discontent, emerges ‘winner’ unleashing spontaneous anger.
In Kenya in 2007, a people power revolution which even borrowed the colour orange from Ukraine degenerated into tribal violence while in Zimbabwe a similar undertaking has since morphed into a unity government.

2011 threatens to bring bad tidings on Uganda’s political landscape is all the doomsayers are to be believed. However, at the end of the day it all seems to hinge on how President Museveni will behave -- in the event that Ugandans do not vote for him.