Why experts say we are too many people in this country

Kampala

The population of Uganda is forecast to hit 55 million in 2025. This is an increase of 25 million more people in just 16 years for a country that already has the second fastest growing population in Africa after Nigeria.

Behind this phenomenal, is a high fertility rate where women give birth to six or seven children over a lifetime and a low contraceptive use.

While a big population can stir economic growth, population and development experts say Uganda’s fast growing populace can be an opportunity only if it is well planned.

“The current population growth rate is unsustainable because it is not producing a quality population,” said Prof. Augustus Nuwagaba, a development expert from Makerere University.

“For the country to benefit from this high population requires an economic growth rate of 10 percent per annum which the country is not achieving,” Prof. Nuwagaba told Saturday Monitor in an interview.

At the moment, Uganda’s economy is growing at an annual rate of six percent, meaning that the population is growing faster than the economy can support.
At a growth rate of 3.2 per cent, the country adds at least 1.2 million people to the country every year.

This means that the doubling time of the population for Uganda is 22 years.
On average though, the world’s population is expected to double only after every 54 years.

The 2009 Population Reference Bureau data sheet for example shows that while Uganda and Canada have an almost equal population size at 34 million and 31 million people respectively, projections show that by 2050, Canada’s population will be 42 million, while Uganda's is expected to soar to close to 100 million.

The high population growth rate is also impacting negatively on government’s effort to cut on poverty levels. In fact figures from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics show that poverty levels that dropped from 56 percent in 1992 to a current 31 percent has not translated into actual reduction in the number of people living in absolute poverty-also known as living on less than a dollar a day.

“A fast increasing population appears to be the factor in the rising absolute number of people living in poverty,” Prof. Nuwagaba said.

Prof. Nuwagaba warns that unless Uganda’s runaway population growth rate is addressed, it will put enormous pressure on the country’s economy as competition for scarce resources and public goods expand.

The rapid growing population has been cited as one of the primary reasons the country’s efforts to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by the world target date of 2015 are being undermined.

President Museveni has publicly advocated for a larger population, defending it as the cornerstone for economic growth.

Mr Museveni argues that as the population grows, more investment needs to be directed towards ensuring that such a population is skilled and healthy and employed.