New poll puts Museveni vote at 43 per cent

President Museveni would have won the presidential election if it had been held a month ago but he would not have collected enough votes to avoid a run-off, a new poll can reveal.
The poll was commissioned by Daily Monitor and the Deepening Democracy Programme and conducted between April 19 and May 6 by TNS/Research international, an independent global research company.

Asked who they would vote for if elections were held on the day of the interviews, 43 per cent of all respondents said they would vote for President Museveni, while 35 per cent said they would vote for Dr Kiiza Besigye of the opposition Forum for Democratic Change.

Mr Olara Otunnu of the Uganda Peoples Congress and Norbert Mao of the Democratic Party were joint third with four per cent of the respondents saying they would vote for them.
Mr Abed Bwanika (Independent), Mr Jaberi Bidandi Ssali (People’s Progressive Party) and Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu, who lost the FDC presidential nomination to Dr Besigye in April, all received one per cent.

Mr Bwanika, who scored less than one per cent in the 2006 election, and Mr Ssali have indicated plans to run in the 2011 election but Mr Muntu is expected to throw his weight behind Dr Besigye after losing in the party primary.

President Museveni, in power since 1986, is seeking a fourth elected term in office and is expected to be nominated by the ruling NRM party as its candidate later this month.
Mr Museveni received 75.6 per cent of the vote in the 1996 election, 69.4 per cent in 2001 and 59.3 per cent in the 2006 election.

Dr Besigye won 27.7 per cent of the vote in 2001 and 37.4 per cent in 2006 but the Supreme Court found widespread irregularities in both elections, the majority in favour of the incumbent.

Tight contest
The latest poll shows a drop in support for both President Museveni and Dr Besigye but suggests that the 2011 election could be the most-tightly contested in the country’s history and could lead to a run-off between the two candidates. According to the Constitution, a presidential candidate must win more than 50 per cent of the valid votes cast at the election.
There is still plenty to fight for, though; one in 10 respondents interviewed in the survey said they did not yet know who they would vote for, suggesting that there is at least 10 per cent of swing voters for candidates to reach out to.

If the 10 per cent vote were to all go to President Museveni, he would climb to 53 per cent and avoid a run-off but should the swing vote all go to Dr Besigye, he would climb to 45 per cent.

This would not be enough for the opposition candidate to win in the first round but it would put him ahead of the incumbent and leave Mr Museveni as the underdog in the run-off.
More than seven out of every 10 respondents interviewed in this survey (73 per cent) said they had already decided on which presidential candidate to vote for in 2011 but only 66 per cent of respondents aged 18 – 25 said they had already decided, suggesting that many youth votes are still up for grabs.

The opposition, under its Inter Party Cooperation, is planning to field a single candidate in next year’s election, although Mr Mao’s Democratic Party says it is unlikely to support the move.

Dr Besigye is favourite to win the slot with six out of every 10 respondents in the survey picking him as their preferred opposition joint candidate while Mr Mao came second with 15 per cent, only slightly ahead of JEEMA’s Kibirige Mayanja on 14 per cent.

Some 46 per cent of all respondents said they support the idea of a joint opposition candidate against 40 per cent who said they were opposed to the idea. Out of the 46 per cent in favour of the idea, some 62 per cent said they would vote for the joint candidate selected while 30 per cent said they would not.

Youth vote
The survey reveals some interesting information about voting intentions by age group.
President Museveni leads Dr Besigye in each of the age groups but the gap is narrowest among young voters aged 18 – 25 and largest in the 41-45 age group where 65 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Mr Museveni against 20 per cent for Dr Besigye.

Mr Mao, 43, whose campaign team has tried to reach out to younger audiences through new media enjoys his highest support – six per cent – among the 26-29 age group and his lowest – one per cent – among the 36-40 age group.

Mr Otunnu’s biggest support – seven per cent – comes in the 46-50 age group while his support in the other age groups is between four and five per cent.

Gender politics
Some 42 per cent of all female respondents said they would vote for President Museveni compared to 36 per cent for Besigye. Mr Museveni’s score improves among male respondents to 43 per cent while Dr Besigye’s drops to 34 per cent. Both Mr Mao and Mr Otunnu have the same level of support across the gender divide; five per cent and four per cent respectively.

In keeping with findings of previous surveys, President Museveni enjoys more support in the rural areas (47 per cent) than in urban centres (21 per cent). Dr Besigye has more support than Mr Museveni in urban areas (49 per cent) but has 32 per cent support in rural areas where more than eight out of every 10 voters live.

The opposition candidate also has twice as much support in Kampala than President Museveni, with 44 per cent to 19 per cent of respondents interviewed in the survey.
President Museveni’s greatest support is in the western region, where both candidates come from, with 59 per cent to Dr Besigye’s 35 per cent.

The northern region, which has voted against Mr Museveni in the last three elections, prefers the opposition candidate, with 46 per cent to the incumbent’s 18 per cent.
Both Mr Mao and Mr Otunnu are from the northern region. Some 14 per cent of respondents from the region said they would vote for Mr Otunnu while six per cent said they would vote for Mr Mao.

Central and the eastern regions, however, appear to be up for grabs. Eastern region is likely to offer the tightest contest with only a percentage point separating Mr Museveni (39 per cent) from Dr Besigye (38 per cent) among respondents who said they would vote for either candidate. Both Mr Otunnu and Mr Mao are at four per cent. President Museveni leads in central region with 45 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for him but Dr Besigye is a close second at 41 per cent. Mr Mao is at four per cent and Mr Otunnu at two per cent.

Respondents in the survey were asked to name the qualities they wanted in a presidential candidate. Most respondents said they wanted a candidate who can promote development, followed being educated and knowledgeable. Other top qualities mentioned include: being able to keep peace in the country, being God-fearing, ability to promote democracy, willingness to fight corruption and other forms of crime, as well as being honest, sympathetic and able to unite the country.

In Daily Monitor on Tuesday, the poll reveals surprising results about what Ugandans think of President Museveni’s record in office – and when they want him to retire.

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Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Daily Monitor and the Deepening Democracy Programme. It was carried out by TNS/Research International, an independent global research company with offices in more than 90 per cent of the countries of the world.

Interviews
The survey involved face-to-face interviews with 2,000 randomly selected Ugandans of voting age.

Time
The survey was conducted between April 19 and May 6.

Respondents
Interviews were conducted at household level over 50 districts out of the 80 original districts of Uganda. The overall margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-2 per cent.

Weighted
To ensure that the demographic distribution of the survey matched that of the 2002 national census, the data generated was weighed.

Demographics
Number of respondents = 2,000
Male-to-female ratio = 50:50
Urban-to-rural ratio = 13:87

Education
Primary not completed = 19%
Secondary not completed = 18%
Primary completed = 18%
College/university/poly completed = 11%
Secondary completed = 10%
High school not completed= 6%
High school completed = 5%
College/university/poly not completed = 4%
Refused to answer = 1%
No response = 8%

Religion
Catholic = 40%
Protestant = 39%
Muslim = 12%
Born again = 7%
Indigenous/local = 1%
Did not answer = 1%

Region
The study was conducted in both rural and urban areas in all the five administrative regions of Uganda (North, Central, Western, and Eastern and Kampala, which was considered as a separate region because of its unique demographic characteristics).

Kampala = 5%
Central = 22%
Eastern = 26%
Northern = 21%
Western = 26%

Age group
18-25 = 29%
26-29 = 17%
30-35 = 23%
36-40 = 10%
41-45 = 7%
46-50 = 6%
50+= 8%