Battle for Cabinet posts gathers heat

Most of the ingredients for President Museveni to carry out a Cabinet reshuffle are in place.
Apart from approaching the mid-way point of his term, the time at which he usually reshuffles his team, the political environment suggests that he may soon make a move.
The most important factor playing into the political environment is the removal late last year of the presidential age limit, which brought to the fore new allies of Mr Museveni on the one hand, and encouraged his opponents on the other hand.
He may need to reward some and reprimand others.
The other factor that suggests that Mr Museveni is in change mode is the recent firing of former police boss Gen Kale Kayihura, with whom many had grown to believe he had a symbiotic relationship. Gen Kayihura had been the Inspector General of Police since 2005, the longest period anyone had been police boss in Uganda.
Gen Kayihura ferociously fought Mr Museveni’s political opponents and it became fashionable to argue, whatever his failings, that Mr Museveni would tolerate him because their destinies seemed intertwined.
Firing Gen Kayihura therefore, serves as an indicator that Mr Museveni is not afraid of shaking up his team and is afraid of no one.

Pushing and shoving
Keen observers of Mr Museveni’s politics would bet that this is not the time for Mr Museveni to reshuffle his Cabinet.
One of them, who works with the government and asked not to be named, told Saturday Monitor that since Mr Museveni is angling for a referendum to determine whether to extend the presidential term from the current five to seven years, which he wants, he cannot reshuffle his Cabinet now. Those who reason this way say Mr Museveni would best be served by keeping everyone guessing until the referendum is done, hence ensuring that those who are currently in Cabinet and those hoping to be appointed to it will work hard to win the referendum and catch Mr Museveni’s eye.
Whenever Mr Museveni moves to make the anticipated changes, however, quiet jostling for positions is taking shape with MPs and ministers pulling all the stops to impress the appointing authority and improve their chances of joining Cabinet.
Mr Museveni last reshuffled his Cabinet in June 2016 after he had been sworn in for a fifth elected term a month earlier.
Since then, he has been pushed into making one change to his Cabinet; sacking former Security minister, Lt Gen Henry Tumukunde, and replacing him with Gen Elly Tumwine.
Gen Tumukunde had only been recently brought back into the fold when he was appointed to the position in June 2016 after a decade of strained relations with his former boss that saw him tried in the army court.
Gen Tumukunde was fired on the same day with Gen Kayihura, and the two had been publicly bickering over the management of the country’s security and fighting crime.
The removal of Gen Tumukunde, therefore, appears to have very little to do with Mr Museveni’s political calculations and more to do with an urgent issue to which the appointing authority was reacting.

Possible winners
This can perhaps be compared to when Mr Museveni again made a one-man mini-reshuffle in September 2014, removing Mr Amama Mbabazi from the position of prime minister and replacing him with Dr Ruhakana Rugunda, who was widely regarded as Mr Mbabazi’s close ally.
The appointment of Dr Rugunda, who last competed in an election in 1996, was widely seen as meant to counter Mr Mbabazi, who was nursing presidential ambitions against Mr Museveni ahead of the 2016 election.
Both Mr Mbabazi and Dr Rugunda hail from Kigezi sub-region, which Mr Museveni was keen to assuage at the time to prevent it from falling into Mr Mbabazi’s claws.
It can now be argued that the threat Mr Mbabazi posed then has since passed and Mr Museveni may be looking at other challenges. If this is true, then Dr Rugunda, who has morphed into a largely technocratic prime minister with not so much political capital of his own, may prove dispensable.
This may especially be the case if, as rumour has it, President Museveni may want to reward and promote Government Chief Whip Ruth Nankabirwa, who led the push in Parliament to remove age limits.
Mr Museveni was the first leader in Africa to name a female vice president – Dr Specioza Wandira Kazibwe in 1993, a move he heavily milked for political capital as he asked women to support him for supporting their cause.
Ms Nankabirwa has already attracted envy from some of her party colleagues who feel that she has perhaps taken more credit for the passing of the age limit amendment than she deserves.
Some such members even skipped the age limit party Ms Nankabirwa organised in her Kiboga District about a month ago, at which Mr Museveni officiated.
Observers say if Mr Museveni intends to reward Ms Nankabirwa by offering her a bigger position, the prime minister’s job may be more likely than the vice presidency which is currently occupied by Mr Edward Ssekandi.
Previously challenged as far as winning elections is concerned, Mr Ssekandi these days comfortably wins his parliamentary seat and, in addition to hailing from the populous Buganda sub-region, Mr Ssekandi also belongs to the most populous religion – Catholicism.
He also stays in the background and lets his boss shine, a big difference from his predecessor, Prof Gilbert Bukenya, who was deemed to be interested in the presidency.
But if Mr Ssekandi is to stay put in his position, Ms Nankabirwa may perhaps have to wait a while longer for a bigger promotion since it is deemed unlikely that Mr Museveni would have one Muganda as vice president and another one as prime minister.
One MP who will feel that he has earned the right to expect a ministerial position is Igara West MP Raphael Magyezi, who sponsored the Private Members Constitution Amendment Bill that paved the way for Mr Museveni to be eligible to run for presidency during the next round of elections.
Mr Magyezi, however, gave a guarded response when we asked him whether he was expecting a Cabinet position.
“That is up to the appointing authority. It is not within my mandate and I believe he has different parameters that he looks at,” Mr Magyezi said.
West Budama South MP Jackson Oboth-Oboth, who chaired the Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Committee that endorsed the Bill, is also a potential candidate for a reward for his role in the age limits removal battles.
When Deputy Speaker of Parliament Jacob Oulanyah chaired the Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Committee that handled the removal of term limits in 2005, he lost his seat and stayed in the cold for some years, but he bounced back and now his star seems poised to further rise as long as Mr Museveni stays in power.

Possible losers

Mr Museveni may have easy picks in ministers who joined Cabinet without any political constituency and those that have not been on the front foot in pushing his political goals.
State minister for Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Kayunga Woman MP Idah Nantaba will be worried over her position after she missed the crucial vote to remove age limits from the Constitution.
Ms Nantaba was unavailable for comment as her known mobile number was off but she told this newspaper in January that she is not worried over being fired from Cabinet over her shunning of the age-limit vote.
State minister for Youth Nakiwala Kiyingi, who joined Cabinet as a DP member without a political constituency, and has consistently kept a backstage role during critical political times like the removal of age-limits, faces a struggle to keep her job.
Ms Beti Kamya, the minister for Kampala Affairs, may also struggle to keep her job despite being vocal.
She was appointed to turn around Mr Museveni’s political fortunes in Kampala following his heaviest electoral defeat in the city, but not much seems to have turned in the President’s favour ever since.
Ms Nakiwala and Ms Kamya were both in Opposition before being co-opted into Cabinet in 2016. Mr Museveni has in the past appointed opposition politicians into his Cabinet but then turned around and fired them after only a few years.
Mr Aggrey Awori, the former minister for ICT, was the biggest victim, having served in Cabinet for only three years from 2009 to 2011.