Burundi walks a tightrope as president toys with unpopular third term idea

President Pierre Nkurunziza

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The Arusha peace deal ended a decade of fighting in which an estimated people were killed in Burundi’s civil wars

Burundi, once seen as a model of ethnic power-sharing and an African-led peace process, faces a stern test as the ruling CNDD-FDD party met yesterday to choose its candidate for the June 26 presidential elections.
At a press conference held in Bujumbura on Thursday, representatives of civil society organisations called for mass demonstrations today if, as expected, President Pierre Nkurunziza receives a nod from the National Council for the Defence of Democracy – Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) ruling party to run for a third term.

Civil society activists and opposition party officials say a third term for Mr Nkurunziza would violate the Constitution and the Arusha peace deal that ended a decade of fighting in the small central African country. Supporters say Mr Nkurunziza’s first five-year term, from 2005, does not count, as he was elected by legislators and not by universal adult suffrage.
Tensions have escalated in recent months in urban areas where opposition supporters have been holding protests, and in rural areas where an estimated 8,000 people have been forced to flee their homes and across the border into Rwanda by youthful militia associated with the ruling party.

In July 2014, Amnesty International warned in a report that the ruling party was “perpetrating a relentless campaign of intimidation against government critics”.
It noted: “The youth wing of the CNDD-FDD, the Imbonerakure, have been responsible for intimidation, harassment and violence, attacking and even killing members of the political opposition with impunity.”
The warning drew chilling parallels with the Interahamwe youth militia in neighbouring Rwanda who participated in the 1994 Genocide.

In January, the BBC reported that government soldiers had executed 17 rebels after they surrendered, and added that it had discovered their bodies in a mass grave in the north-west of the country. The government denied responsibility but launched an investigation.
In a separate incident in the same month, gunmen in military fatigues dragged three CNDD-FDD party supporters out of a bar in eastern Burundi, tied them up, and shot them dead. They later raided the party branch office in the area and burnt a party flag.

There are fears that tensions could escalate into widespread violence if Mr Nkurunziza wins the endorsement of the ruling party which civil society groups and opposition parties have said would be tantamount to a coup d’état against constitutional order.
“There is calm in Bujumbura today but we are waiting to see what will happen on Sunday when the demonstrations are expected,” a political activist told this newspaper, speaking on condition of anonymity in order to speak freely. “It could be violent because ministers held a press conference at the beginning of the week and vowed to react if demonstrations are held.”

On Monday, Defence Minister Maj. Gen. Pontien Gaciyubwenge said the army was ready to “accompany the other security actors in resisting the detractors of peace” if demonstrations broke out.
He was speaking after an incident-filled weekend in which police fired tear gas and water cannons to disperse more than a thousand opposition supporters who demonstrated in Bujumbura against President Nkurunziza’s third term.
Several parts of the capital city were put on lock-down for several hours and more than a hundred demonstrators were arrested, many of whom face up to 10 years in jail after they were charged with “taking part in an insurrectional movement”.
Maj. Gen. Gaciyubwenge was not available for comment yesterday.

No consensus
Although President Nkurunziza, 51, has been very circumspect about his third term ambitions, he is unlikely to find resistance within his ruling CNDD-FDD party.
“I am quite sure that he is going to be anointed unopposed as the candidate,” a member of the ruling party, who asked not to be named because they aren’t authorised to speak on its behalf, said. “Even if there is a vote, he is likely to be win easily because CNDD-FDD has not prepared any other candidate for the election other than him. There is no plan-B.”

Resistance has come from other sections of society, including the influential Catholic Church, with the powerful Archbishop of Gitega, Monsignor Simon Ntamwana openly critical of the third-term campaign.
President Nkurunziza’s supporters say the church is not happy that the President, who, like the majority of people in Burundi, was raised in the Catholic faith, converted to the ‘born-again’ Pentecoastal church. However, diplomats say Monsignor Ntamwana and other religious leaders are genuinely fearful that the third-term effort could lead to violence and political instability.
Some government officials hold similar views, including members of the intelligence and security agencies. A leaked February report from Burundi’s intelligence service seen by this newspaper warned that in case spontaneous demonstrations broke out in the country, it would be very difficult for security forces to contain the situation without risking the loss of human life.

“Even if the security forces manage to quell the situation there are risk of using excessive force and those in power (CNDD-FDD) may one day find themselves in front of the International Court to answer charges for use of excessive force against demonstrators,” a translation of the report, which was originally written in French, notes.
This newspaper has not been able to independently authenticate the report, although three separate sources confirmed that it represents the view held by intelligence analysts in the country.

The same report warned that there was a risk of security forced breaking down in the face of “spontaneous demonstrations” along ethnic-military lines. “This can lead to the polarization of the defence and other security forces. It is an eventuality that could become a serious threat to our society whose wounds from the recent civil war are not yet fully healed,” it noted.
We could not independently confirm widely-held views that the intelligence report, which recommended the CNDD-FDD to pick a new candidate, was the reason behind President Nkurunziza’s decision to fire the head of the intelligence service, Major General Godefroid Niyombare in February, after only three months on the job.

Presidential spokesperson Willy Nyamitwe had not returned phone calls and text messages sent to him by press time on Friday. He had earlier been quoted saying the country had “room for the opposition, but not for a revolution or an insurgency”. He added: “The powers that be will not allow a return to war. We want free, transparent, and peaceful elections.”
Rights groups say space for political dissent and expression of critical and alternative views has been narrowing ahead of the elections. In March the Mayor of Bujumbura issued guidelines, in conjunction with the Interior Ministry, which had the effect of only allowing demonstrations by CNDD-FDD to proceed unhindered, while those of civil society groups and opposition parties face restrictions.

“As elections approach, the alarming crackdown on dissenting voices has intensified in Burundi,” Sarah Jackson, Amnesty International’s Deputy Regional Director for East Africa, the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes, told this newspaper. “The authorities need to ensure all Burundians can peacefully express their views to defuse the situation.”

Delicate diplomacy
The tensions in Burundi have caught the attention of countries in the region and the international community. On a visit to the country earlier this month, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein warned that the country was at a crossroads, caught between free and fair elections on the one hand, and “violence and intimidation aimed at subverting democracy for the sake of gaining or maintaining political power” on the other.
After a visit to the country last year, Samantha Power, the United States’ ambassador to the U.N. warned of “worrying developments” in Burundi, including the arming of youth militia allied to the ruling party.
However, a source familiar with the matter at the U.N. told this newspaper that some permanent members of the Security Council were reluctant to endorse a very strong position, arguing that the third-term debate was an internal matter for the people of Burundi to decide.

As a result, a statement presented by the security council in February made no reference to the third-term debate but only called for peaceful process and the investigation of human rights violations.
“They can’t influence him not to run again, so the option on the table at the moment is to avoid violence,” the diplomatic source, speaking on condition of anonymity in order to speak freely, said. “It appears like there will be some violence. If it is low-key and limited, they will look the other way but if it becomes widespread then there will be pressure for a more vocal response and that message is clear to Nkurunziza.”

The position of the Security Council and geo-political considerations appear to have set the tone for both the African Union, which had a pre-election mission to the country last month, the East African Community, and other countries in the region including Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania.
President Paul Kagame of Rwanda hosted President Nkurunziza earlier this month to discuss the political situation in Burundi and the growing refugee and insecurity crisis but was careful not to get drawn into the internal political contest in the neighbouring country.

“I believe that Burundi has the capacity to resolve their own issues,” President Kagame told journalists after the meeting, “but we are here to assist”.
Uganda, whose President Yoweri Museveni was one of the co-signatories of the Arusha peace deal and controversially engineered his own amendment to the constitution to remain in office, has been quiet on the matter. Foreign Affairs minister Henry Okello Oryem was not available for comment.

Tanzania’s President Jakaya Kikwete, who is seen to wield influence in the neighbouring country, but whose own term will end in six months, addressed a meeting in Burundi earlier this year in his capacity as chairperson of the East African Community and noted that it was up to the people of Burundi to interpret the law and the legality of Mr Nkurunziza’s candidature.
According to the diplomat familiar with the discussions in the U.N. and among regional governments, there is no joint position by the frontline states and others, including South Africa that played a leading role in the peace negotiations that ended the civil war in Burundi.

“The fundamental change, at least for now, is that the competition for power is now an intra-ethnic matter between the Hutu elite in Burundi,” the diplomat said. “As long as it doesn’t become inter-ethnic, lead to large scale violence or spill out of the borders of the country, there won’t be too many people eager to intervene in a major way in the region or from the international community.”
President Nkurunziza is widely believed to enjoy popular support especially in the rural areas. With only two months to polling day, the opposition’s best chance of defeating him appears to be stopping him from getting back into the race.
Many will be hoping that ballots, rather than bullets, eventually settle the contest.

Arusha deal
The Arusha peace deal ended a decade of fighting in which an estimated people were killed in Burundi’s civil wars. It also established a power-sharing formular between the Hutu majority and the Tutsi minority. There are fears that a third-term for President Nkurunziza could upset the fragile political stability and with it the delicate ethnic balance.

About Nkurunziza presidency
Following a series of CNDD-FDD victories in elections held during June and July 2005, Nkurunziza was nominated as the party’s presidential candidate. He was elected president unopposed by members of parliament (acting as an electoral college) on 19 August 2005 and took office on 26 August 2005. The new Head of State inherited a country devastated by over a decade of civil war and dictatorship. In spite of those difficulties, he has since been working hard to restore peace and concord among the Burundian people. His policy is aimed at reconstruction and reconciliation, economic recovery and political stability. President Nkurunziza concluded a peace accord with the last rebel group, the Palipehutu-Fnl.