Poll shows how MPs will vote on age limit

Parliament- Voting in Parliament for amendment of Article 102(b) to remove the presidential age limit from the Constitution will be delicately poised with MPs split between 168 in support, 92 against and 57 undecided, a new survey reveals.

Parliament is in the process of amending Article 102 (b) of the Constitution which bars any person aged below 35 or above 75 from standing for President.

The Constitution Amendment Bill 2017 presented to Parliament by Igara West MP Raphael Magyezi has now been adopted by the Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Committee.

Under the Article, President Museveni, now aged 73, will be ineligible for re-election at the next election in 2021.
Daily Monitor contacted 336 of 436 MPs who are entitled to vote in Parliament but 317 responded to our questions.

Of the 317 MPs that responded, 168 MPs (53 per cent) indicated that they will vote for the removal of age limit, 92 (29 per cent) said they will vote against it while 57 (18 per cent) remained undecided, saying they were still consulting their electorate in their constituencies.
A total of 115 MPs (27 per cent at the time the poll was done) did not respond to our calls to participate in the poll.

On political party basis, 147 MPs (50 per cent) of NRM support the removal of age limit, 20 MPs (seven per cent) are against while 44 (14 per cent) were undecided and 85 (29 per cent) did not respond.

In Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party, 31 (86 per cent) of the 36 MPs polled indicated they will vote against the removal of age limit while five (14 per cent) did not respond.
In Democratic Party (DP), 13 MPs (92 per cent) said they will vote against the removal of age limit while one (8 per cent) did not respond.

Ms Betty Amongi, the Minister for Lands, Housing and Urban Development, is the only MP from Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) party who indicated she will vote for the removal of age limit.
Four of the party’s MPs said they will vote against while one did not respond.

Capt Evelyn Asiimwe is the only Army MP who indicated she would vote for removal of the age limit.
Seven out of the 10 MPs of the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) did not respond to our calls while two said they were undecided.

For the 66 Independent MPs, 24 (37 per cent) indicated they will vote against the removal of age limits, 16 (25 per cent) supported, 11 (16 per cent) were undecided while 14 (22 per cent) did not respond.

For the Constitution Amendment Bill to pass through, the NRM will require support of not less than two-thirds of the 436 MPs entitled to vote- meaning that the ruling party requires a vote of 290 MPs to change the Constitution to remove age limit.

There are 18 ex-officios in Parliament who are not entitled to a vote.
Article 262 of the Constitution states that a Bill for an Act of Parliament to amend any provision of the Constitution, other than those referred to in Articles 260 and 261, shall not be taken as passed unless it is supported at the second and third readings by the votes of not less than two-thirds of all Members of Parliament.

Process
Rule 89 of the Parliament’s Rules of Procedure stipulate that voting at the second and third readings of the Bill for an Act of Parliament to amend a provision of the Constitution has to be by roll call and tally.

For roll call and tally, the Clerk to Parliament will have to call each of the 436 MPs to openly vote “Yes” or “No” to the removal of the presidential age limit or to abstain.

This was the voting method used by the Eighth Parliament in 2005 to amend Article 105 (2) and delete the presidential term limits which would have barred Mr Museveni from contesting in 2006 elections, having completed the two five-year terms from 1996.

For the removal of term limits, 218 MPs voted for, 53 against and two- Army MP Fred Bogere and Deputy Speaker Jacob Oulanyah (Omoro County), who was then chairman of the Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Committee, which had considered the Bill, abstained from the vote.

With 302 MPs in the national assembly, NRM commands a numerical advantage but cracks have been simmering within its ranks with opposition to the removal of age limit growing.

The party caucus on October 12 turned rowdy after Mr Museveni ordered that MPs opposed to the removal of the age limit be kicked out of the meeting.

What analysts say

Dr Frederick Golooba-Mutebi, a political researcher, says the figures illustrate to Mr Museveni that the proposal to remove the age limit is not very popular but explains that the MPs may change positions on voting day.

“The most significant thing from the figures is that it shows to President Museveni that the proposal he is pushing through does not enjoy overwhelming support. What the figures show is that Museveni may not win the vote for the Bill at first round. But we also don’t know when voting on the Bill will be,” Dr Golooba-Mutebi says.

The Opposition has 55 MPs (FDC 35, DP 14 and UPC, six) and 66 Independents, with a majority of the latter being NRM-leaning having lost in the disputed party primaries and opted to run on individual merit.

However, 20 MPs of NRM indicated they will vote against the removal of age limit, rejecting resolutions by the party’s Central Executive Committee, National Executive Committee and Parliamentary Caucus which all endorsed the Constitution amendment. Asked how the party will deal with dissenting MPs, NRM Caucus vice chairperson Solomon Silwany [Bukholi Central] said a caucus meeting would be convened before Parliament resumes to discuss the way forward.

“We will have a Caucus to discuss. If its voters who did not accept the removal of age limit, as the NRM Caucus executive, we shall go to the constituency and find out what they are saying.

But also, as the NRM Caucus executive, we cannot depend on the results of the Daily Monitor poll. We know that some of the MPs you mentioned will vote yes,” Mr Silwany said.

He declined to respond to whether NRM will take disciplinary action against the dissenting MPs.
Dr Frederick Kisekka-Ntale, a political analyst, says while the survey could help gauge the perceptions of the MPs, it should not be forgotten that they have two faces; one for the public and the other for the political party they subscribe to.

“When the Bill is brought to the House, it is obvious the NRM will carry the day. All Bills in which the party had an interest have sailed through. I do not think it will be any different with this [Constitution Amendment Bill 2017],” Dr Kisekka Ntale says.

HOW WE DID THE SURVEY
Daily Monitor journalists in November telephoned or contacted in person all the 436 Members of Parliament with voting rights.

One hundred fifteen neither received nor returned our telephone calls. The voting pattern of the 317 we have used for the reporting captures the publicly-proclaimed positions of those lawmakers who were unable to respond to our inquiry.

Each of the MPs we reached was asked: Do you support the lifting of the presidential age limit? The responses were based on telephone interviews, face to face interviews and public positions taken since the matter was brought before Parliament.

Compiled by Moses Kyeyune, Solomon Arinaitwe, Nelson Wesonga, Francis Mugerwa, Felix Basiime, Scovia Atuhaire, Alfred Tumushabe, Robert Muhereza, Zadock Amanyisa, Felix Ainebyoona & Perez Rumanzi, Gertrude Mutyaba, Sadat Mbogo, Christopher Kisekka and Moses Muwulya

Afrobarometer, The Observer newspaper, and the civil society have recently issued surveys on the age limit.

Tomorrow, we look at MPs’ voting patterns by region.