Power cuts to resume in 6 months

Electricity consumers could start experiencing load shedding in six months and not two years as earlier predicted, a source in the energy sector has said.
The source attributed this to the ever-increasing unmet demand and the cancellation of power dispatches by the two remaining thermal plants, whose combined generation capacity is 100 megawatts.
“Within the next six months, there will be load shedding,” the source said.
However, the Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Ltd (UETCL), which buys and sells bulk electricity, said “though there is a possibility of load shedding, it would be minimal” “We anticipate peak demand will increase from 470MW to 490MW, which would be manageable given that generation at peak hour is 503MW,” UETCL spokesperson Kenneth Otim told the Sunday Monitor.

He said this would not necessitate the use of thermal power plants. However the total 490MW of generated being fronted by the UETCL includes small hydropower and thermal plants that do not feed into the national grid.

Currently, the country is getting between 145MW to 250MW from Bujagali plant, about 210MW from both Nalubaale and Kiira plants and less than 12MW from sugar factories to the national grid.

Previously thermal plant at Aggrekko Lugogo (50MW) Namanve (50MW), Mutundwe (50MW), Jinja (50MW) and Tororo (22MW) added to the grid but all these have been turned-off due to non-affordability.
To forestall loadshedding, the Directorate of Water Resources (DwD) has reportedly granted Eskom permission to increase the flow of water at Owen Falls Dam from 800 cubic metres per second to 1, 000 cubic metres per second.

“Were DwD to withdraw the permit for 1,000 cumecs in favour of 800 cumecs, it would lead minimal load shedding, which would be bearable,” said Mr Otim.

The more water is discharged, the more electricity generated, which consequently would affect the level of water in the lake. Data available to the Sunday Monitor shows that between 7pm to 11pm, over 1010cumecs of water is released to enable Bujagali generate 250MW of power to meet the peak demand.

“Given that Bujagali plant is already exhausted (250MW) at peak hours, there will be a shortage in six months-time if the problem is not sorted soon,” said a hydro electricity generation source.

Since the commissioning of the 250MW Bujagali in October, demand for electricity at peak hours has increased from 450MW to 470MW.
Generation capacity, however, has increased only in stations not linked to the national grid.

In 2012, the government decommissioned two thermal power plants (Aggreko Kiira and Aggreko Mutundwe) that had a combined generation capacity of 100MW.

Then in January, the Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) asked UETCL to stop buying thermal electricity from Electromaxx and Jacobsen, which in effect removed 100MW from the national grid.
Dr Benon Mutambi, the chief executive officer of ERA, told the Sunday Monitor then, “You would not go for a product you cannot afford.”
Thermal power costs Shs779.5 a unit compared with Shs268.8 for hydropower. Plans to construct the 600MW Karuma hydropower plant seen to go-along way in solving the power crisis have been hampered by murky procurement process. The plan is already one-and -half year behind schedule.

IGG last week asked the Energy ministry to re-tender the process.

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