Will the Arab uprising spread to sub- saharan Africa?

The uprisings have led to the overthrow of presidents who have been in power for long like Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia and Muammar Gaddafi of Libya.

Saturday September 10 2011

Libyan National Transitional Council fighters

Libyan National Transitional Council fighters flash the victory sign at a checkpoint on the road from Tarhuna to Bani Walid. PHOTO BY AFP. 

By Mwaura Samora

Monitor Correspondent


The power of dictatorships comes from the willing obedience of the people they govern, if the people can develop techniques of withholding their consent, a regime will crumble,” Dr Gene Sharp, the author of From Dictatorship to Democracy, once said. These words will forever be immortalised by the spectacular downfall of not only Hosni Mubarak, but also the fall of long-serving Libyan strongman Col. Muammar Gaddafi. While Gaddafi’s admirers have blamed Gaddafi’s fall on Nato neo-colonialism, it has inspired downtrodden people across Africa.

In Zimbabwe, watching the triumphant rebels overrun Gaddafi’s compound in the capital was a huge moral boost for the citizens of that nation who have been in a protracted struggle against the suppressive ZANU-PF regime. “This is a victory for Zimbabweans. This is a message to other surviving dictators that they cannot hold down people forever,” Knowledge Magwenzi, a staunch supporter of Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, told The Zimbabwe Mail.

“There is hope for oppressed people in Africa who have resigned themselves to believing the dictator was immortal,” Magwenzi said. But few Zimbabweans had the courage to celebrate publicly, preferring to exchange messages via social networks and other discreet platforms.

Many still recall how, early this year, Munyaradzi Gwisai, a political activist and lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe’s law school, and other political activists, were arrested and charged with treason for arranging a meeting to celebrate the ousting of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

With events unfolding up north, heightened by the rumours that the cornered Libyan leader would be seeking sanctuary in Zimbabwe, the country’s state media has avoided showing footage of the North African uprisings. And President Robert Mugabe has labelled Nato a “terrorist organisation”. His generals, most of whom have vowed never to allow a Tsavangirai presidency, have been issuing thinly veiled threats warning Zimbabweans against any attempt to imitate the Arab uprisings.

In February, 46 people were arrested for allegedly planning to topple the government through street protests. Although all of them were charged with treason, which attracts death sentence, 38 of them were acquitted.
The Libyan ambassador in Harare, Taher Emalgrahi, and his staff irked the ZANU-PF side of the coalition after pledging loyalty to the National Transition Council (NTC) and hoisting the red, green and black flag of the rebels.

The Zimbabwe government reacted by declaring the action illegal and ejecting the entire diplomatic team from the country. But the ambassador was far from apologetic, prophesying that the Harare regime would face Libyan-style revolt in the very near future if it continued suppressing the people.

“What is happening in Libya is the new trend of democracy which started in Tunisia and Egypt early this year. I don’t want to talk of Zimbabwean politics, but there is now democracy flowing throughout the continent and it can happen in any country,” Mr Emalgrahi said a fortnight ago. “We told the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that we cannot ignore the events back home and we had to hoist the flag of freedom,” he said.

Besides being a comrade in arms with Mugabe in criticising the West, Gaddafi has also been bailing out the financially crippled Zimbabwean economy through aid and handouts. In failing to recognise the NTC, Zimbabwe has joined the African Union which more often than not treated the deposed Libyan despot with velvet gloves.

However, over 20 African countries have recognised the NTC including Nigeria, Ethiopia, Tunisia, Burkina Faso and Ghana. But Mr Mugabe is not the only leader whose nights have been deprived of sleep by the unprecedented fall from grace of the man once described as the “Don Vito Corleone of Libya”.

President Museveni, a long-time ally of Gaddafi, last week banned an opposition victory parade planned to be held at the Clock Tower in Kampala in honour of the triumphant rebels.

The “solidarity rally” was meant to show backing for the Libyan opposition, which has spent six months fighting against the 42-year-old regime. “We know that like Col. Gaddafi has been doing, President Museveni is equally using the institutions of the state to persecute any form of opposition,” Mr Mathias Mpuuga, an opposition Member of Parliament for Masaka Municipality, told journalists. “But this rally at Clock Tower will go ahead. We do not need police permission but we will inform them”.

Libyans living in Uganda have pledged their loyalty to the NTC long after the Libyan ambassador abandoned his posting to join rebel authorities in Benghazi early this year.

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