Somalia enters delicate poll season

Mogadishu. On August 9, the National Leadership Forum (NLF) unveiled the modalities for this year’s elections in Somalia.
Since then, the restive nation has become awash with the election sing-song.
NLF is a coalition of leaders that includes the Federal President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud, the Speaker of the Parliament Mohamed Osman Jawari, the Prime Minister and his deputy and the leaders of the regional authorities of Puntland, Jubaland, Southwest and Galmudug.
The leaders endorsed an electoral plan proposed by an independent 22-member commission, chaired by legal expert Omar Mohamoud Abdulle. The commission set an election timetable.
According to the modalities, Somalia is set to have a parliament with a 54-member Upper House and a 275-member Lower House, also known as the people’s hall. The Upper House must be ready by September 25.
The state members of the Federal Republic such as Puntland, Galmudug, Southwest and Jubaland will choose the members to the Upper House.
The selection of the people’s hall legislators will take place between September 24 and October 10, with each MP being elected by 51 voters in accordance with the stipulated conditions.
The voters will be selected by 135 traditional clan leaders chosen under a power sharing formula known as 4.5, which means that each one of the four major Somali clans, namely Darood, Hawiye, Digil/Mirifle and Dir, will have equal representation.
Both the members of the Lower and Upper houses will be sworn in on October 20, and will be expected to elect the respective speakers and their deputies on October 25.
The greatest attention, however, is on the October 30 date when the combined legislators of the Upper and Lower houses are scheduled to elect a president.
Several individuals have so far expressed their wish to occupy Villa Somalia, the state house in Mogadishu, with the incumbent repeatedly declaring his intention to retain the seat.
Generally, there is a sigh of relief that Somalia is gradually embracing democracy after two decades of dictatorship under Gen Mohamed Siad Barre and two decades of civil war.
One indicator is the fact that many have come up to challenge President Mohamoud.
The aspirants include Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke and Mr Abdurahman Mohamed Farole, the former leader of the semi-autonomous state of Puntland.
Dr Sharmarke, 61 underlined that his main mission would be to revive the economy and restore peace by eliminating the Al-Shabaab.
The 72-year-old Farole has served Puntland in various capacities, including as Finance minister. He is a member of the unregistered Horseed Party.
Mr Farole says he hopes to eliminate the clan power sharing formula known as 4.5 (four point five).
Other contenders include Mr Mohamed Ahmed Nur, a former mayor of Mogadishu who leads the Social Justice Party (SJP), and Mr Mohamed Ali Nur, a former Somali ambassador to Kenya.
Mr Yassin Mahi Malin, a Swedish Somali and founder of the yet to be registered Somali Social Unity Party, is said to be another hopeful. His plan includes the elimination of corruption and the enhancement of investment.
Ms Faduma Dayib, a Finnish Somali whose birth place is Kenya, is another notable contestant for the presidency. She promises dialogue with the moderate elements of the Al-Shabaab to stabilise the country.
Former Transitional President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed (2009-2012), is also said to be on the list of potential candidates via his Daljhir Party.
NLF promised an orderly transition during which the current office holders are entitled to act as caretakers until the new parliamentary and presidential results are announced.
The winner of the presidential election is scheduled to assume office on November 6.
Many were, however, apprehensive that both the legislative and presidential elections may not take place this year, let alone on the stipulated dates. NLF members on September 6-14 met in Mogadishu to review the progress.
NLF reiterated that election would take place as per the agreed timeline, especially the presidential vote on October 30.
The Forum further urged all those involved in the election to ensure that the 30 per cent women quota in the parliament was attained to enable them have a fair representation in the legislative and in the executive.
More candidates continue to declare their interest in the two houses, with notable among the campaigners being a group led by a former prime minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed Mohamed, and supported by at least half a dozen presidential candidates.

The association called “the coalition for change”, is backed by a strong secretariat that includes Mogadishu’s former mayor Maxamuud Axmed Nuur (Tarsan), Canadian Somali Abdurahman Badiyow and former minister Abdurahman Abdishakur Warsame.

At least one hopeful declared his candidacy from Tanzania. In May, The Citizen newspaper published that a Dar-es-Salaam based trader, Mr Mohamed Abdullahi Nur, was eyeing the Somalia presidency.
The latest candidacy for the presidency was announced on Monday (September 19) by Mr Jibril Mohamed Abdulle, the director of a think tank, the Centre for Research and Dialogue (CRD).
There is little doubt that many others will travel from other corners of the globe to compete, either for parliamentary seats or the top seat.

But the election process is not short of enemies. On Monday, Sheikh Ali Mohamoud Raghe alias Sheikh Ali Dhere, the spokesman of the Al-Shabaab, announced that his militants would use violence to disrupt the elections.
He warned the 135 traditional clan leaders named to chair the election of the legislators to stop performing their roles.
The Al-Shabaab loyalists are known to target any person who supports the policies of the federal government. Many elders have in the past perished through assassinations believed to have been perpetrated by the Al-Shabaab.
However, the international community, led by the UN Special Envoy, Mr Michael Keating, promised to support the election morally and materially, while the peacekeepers serving with the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) asserted they would guarantee the safety of the electoral venues.

A media analyst in Mogadishu, Mr Mohamed Hassam Mohamoud, recently said the incumbent leader stood a good chance of retaining his seat.

“President Mohamoud is blessed with a formidable team under the auspices of his still unregistered Peace and Development Party (PDP),” said Mr Mohamoud.
By all measures, Somalia is facing a delicate election process that is susceptible to sabotage by Al-Shabaab militants.

Africa Review
(Africa Review is a Nation Media Group initiative to tell untold African stories)