What next for Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe?

Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe delivers a speech during a graduation ceremony at the Zimbabwe Open University in Harare, where he presides as the Chancellor on November 17 2017. AFP PHOTO

What you need to know:

In Ivory Coast, President Alassane Ouattara says it is time for Mugabe "to hand over his seat to a new generation."

Zimbabwe was facing an uncertain future Friday after President Robert Mugabe made a defiant public appearance and the army said negotiations with the 93-year-old head of state were continuing.
This reporter asked Anthoni van Nieuwkerk, a politics professor at Wits University in Johannesburg, to analyse the unfolding crisis:

How is Mugabe still in office?
"He is under house arrest but the military allows him to step out from time to time in an attempt to show the world that the law and order are being maintained in Zimbabwe," said Van Nieuwkerk.

What is being negotiated?
"There is an attempt now to develop a process for an inclusive government to take over from the military so that within a few months, or a year, the path can be paved for a new election," he said.
"The pre-condition for the inclusive government is that Robert Mugabe must resign as the head of state. The problem with this scenario is that he is refusing to do that."

What caused the takeover?
"It is a palace revolution where one section of the ruling ZANU-PF party is using elements of the military, but not all of the security services -- the police for example -- to bring change within the ruling party.
"Grace Mugabe was trying to get rid of her opponents, who were using aspects of the military to get rid of Grace.
"So it is a limited military intervention with political purposes. The coup is against G-40," he added, referring to the faction of young ZANU-PF figures seen as loyal to Grace.

Who will the army hand control to?
"The calculation that the military is making is 'let's treat him with dignity and respect as we search for the way forward'. That is why he made the appearance at the university.
"The best option is to be as inclusive as possible. The problem with opposition politicians in Zimbabwe is that they are pretty weak -- and the most prominent, Morgan Tsvangirai, is ill."
"I don't think he has the stamina to lead, which means that the Zimbabweans should probably search for somebody like Tendai Biti to represent the political opposition," he said referring to the respected former finance minister during the coalition government after the 2008 elections.

What about 'The Crocodile'?
Former vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa "wants to become the president -- nothing less -- and he might get it.
"He might lead the interim arrangement and he might stand as the candidate for the ruling party in the coming election next year or the year.
"He is not an angel, he is not a democrat by definition. He is a very old politician. He has blood on his hands, but that means he has significant pockets of support inside the military and inside the ruling party."

Developments since the military takeover
Here is a timeline of the developing political crisis in Zimbabwe, where the military has taken control of the country but President Robert Mugabe is clinging to power.

Army takes control
November 14: Tanks are seen moving on the outskirts of the capital a day after army chief Constantino Chiwenga denounces Mugabe's sacking of Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa.
Mnangagwa is seen as a rival of Mugabe's wife Grace, 52, to succeed the veteran 93-year-old leader.
Later, heavy gunfire is heard near Mugabe's residence in Harare.
Military officers deny a coup. In an overnight declaration on state television, they say Mugabe is safe and they are "only targeting criminals around him".

Mugabe under house arrest
November 15: Military vehicles take control of the streets of Harare from the early hours, controlling access to parliament, ruling party headquarters and the Supreme Court.
South Africa says Mugabe has told its president, Jacob Zuma, by telephone that he is under house arrest but is "fine".
South Africa sends two special envoys to Zimbabwe. The European Union urges a peaceful resolution to the crisis.

Former colonial power Britain urges all sides in Zimbabwe to refrain from violence and says the situation is "very fluid".
The head of the African Union, Guinea's President Alpha Conde, says the situation "seems like a coup". He calls on the military to halt their actions and restore constitutional order.
Mugabe refuses to step down
November 16: Mugabe refuses to resign during talks with generals, a source close to the army leadership says.
Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai also calls for Mugabe to go "in the interest of the people".

Mugabe and envoys from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), dispatched by Zuma, hold talks at the presidency.
Mnangagwa returns, pressure on Mugabe
November 17: Ousted vice president Mnangagwa, widely tipped to become a transition leader if Mugabe leaves, has returned to Zimbabwe after nearly a week abroad, a senior aide says.
Mugabe makes a first public appearance since the military takeover, attending a university graduation ceremony.

The army says negotiations with the elderly president are continuing.
Veterans of Zimbabwe's independence war call for mass anti-Mugabe street protests on Saturday. Their leader Christopher Mutsvangwa tells Mugabe "the game is up".
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson says the people of Zimbabwe must choose their own government through elections.
In Ivory Coast, President Alassane Ouattara says it is time for Mugabe "to hand over his seat to a new generation."