Let’s face it, we can’t perform a miracle in Somalia

One Afghan vegetable vendor recently told a Western reporter that the Taliban insurgents were brave and crazy - brave because they are ready to die and crazy because they kill everybody who crosses their paths. That sentiment is manifesting itself in the global war against terrorism: insurgents in Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia have all escalated their lethal campaign against the three fledging governments which, by all accounts, are no different from patients on life-support in hospital intensive care unit awaiting ultimate decisions of legally assigned kin to doctors to disconnect the tubes for the patients to expire.

A week before the US forces official August 30 deadline to withdraw all combat forces from Iraq, widespread suicide bombings have virtually left the Iraq government almost in a state of disarray, similar to the brazen onslaughts last week by Somali al Shabaab and Hizbul militants killing 11 Somali parliamentarians besides tens of civilians in their attempt to topple Sheikh Sharif’s African Union-backed government. And in Afghanistan, the Taliban, for the first time, launched suicide attacks on heavily fortified US camps, airbases and police stations.

While all these have one thing in common - the hallmarks of al Qaeda - one cannot help but join ordinary Iraqis and Americans to question the wisdom of removing President Sadam Hussein in the first place. As US ends active combat operations in Iraq after losing 4,416 American soldiers since start of the war in March 2003 according to Associated Press tally, and civilian death toll anywhere between 110,000 and 601,000 depending on different sources, the withdrawal of foreign forces isn’t being seen by many as victory for allied forces.

Like pre-war Iraq, Somalia had a military government headed by dictator Mohamed Siad Barre whose socialist style reign from 1969 to 1991 forbade clanism, a social ill which reappeared after Barre’s ouster. Both Iraq and Somalia had functional governments, albeit military, but which had put lids on factional infighting. With more African troops heading to Somalia to bolster the 6,000-strong African Union Mission for Somalia (Amisom) peacekeeping force comprised of Burundian and Ugandan army, we can only wish them success in their mission.

Nevertheless, it will be naïve not to think that Iraq debacle might not replay itself in Somalia and Afghanistan. Lets face it, presence of foreign forces in Iraq and Afghanistan appear to energise al Qaeda-backed insurgents just like the Amisom seem to energise the al Shabaab and Hizbul Islam rebels in Somalia, with their mindset succinctly described by the Afghan vegetable vendor.

Besides, Amisom will not be in Somalia forever. They may stabilise Sharif’s beleaguered government for a while, but on their eventual withdrawal the Somali warlords will be on each other’s throats yet again. I stand to be corrected but, this is why I believe imposing a western-style democracy to countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia is not worth the cost in human lives and material resources.

No amount of foreign troops will stabilise these countries since the insurgents see any foreign-backed leaders as foreign stooges. If the Russians failed in Afghanistan, the Americans initially were forced to withdraw from Somalia and now Iraq, what magic do Amisom have to do otherwise in Somalia?

Mr Asedri is a medical information technologist, San Diego- California
dikumvi@gmail.com