‘Military takeover’ points towards a glorified circus, not a genuine coup

As discussed on this page a few weeks ago, one of the problems Uganda will have to contend with going forward is the way Mr Museveni deals with the reality of aging.

Lately, there has been talk from the President, the Defence Minister and the Army Commander of ‘the military taking over’ if Parliament and politicians do not stop causing confusion.

This follows the standoff between the Executive and the Legislature following the death of Butaleja Woman MP Cerina Nebanda. Parliament not only initiated its own investigations into her death allegedly due to poisoning, contrary to the wishes of the President but also attempted to cause a recall from recess to discuss the alleged contempt of the House by the President.

As discussed on this page a few weeks ago, one of the problems Uganda will have to contend with going forward is the way Mr Museveni deals with the reality of aging.

Museveni is accustomed to being a father figure in Uganda’s politics for the last three decades or so. He is the President, Commander-in-Chief, the Chairman, the Sabagabe (King of Kings), the Sabalwanyi (Supreme fighter), Tibuhaburwa (The one with knowledge enough not to be cautioned/advised), etc.

But the realities of life mean that there is bound to be a shifting of allegiances as he grows older and younger people look towards the future, opportunistically positioning themselves or looking out for who might be the next chief to ally with.
Museveni views any form of departure from the status quo that has him as the supreme chief as disobedience and unacceptable. His last resort is to fall back onto what he assumes to be his greatest strength that makes him mysterious and embellished.

He, a retired General, dons his military fatigues (which has now become more frequent) and invokes his role in the military history of this country where he played a prominent role and many of those he contends with did not. (It is contemptuously claimed they were eating sausages and hiding under their beds when the patriots were in the bush risking their lives which gives them a greater say in the running of this country.)
Secondly, he has claimed that he hunted his animal so no one should tell him how to divide the carcass, hence his disapproval of Parliament’s ‘meddling’ with the way he runs this country.
Having said that, the realities on the ground, show that since January 1986 when the NRM took over power after a five-year guerrilla war, the military has been a part of the politics of the country.
Most of the critical issues of our times have been decided either with consultation or approval of the military. For instance, the 1993 restoration of monarchs was one such decision.
In fact, when there were riots after the Kabaka was stopped from visiting Bugerere in 2009, Maj. Gen. Kahinda Otafiire said ‘they’ (the military high command) had warned the President against returning monarchs in 1993 but he did not listen. Now he was being paid back.

As of now there can be no military coup. What will only happen is that there will be less ‘democratic pretence’ in an attempt by the President to re-assert himself as the father figure in our politics.
It has happened before with the Judiciary, where the Executive used force to overturn the decisions it deemed wrong, by raiding the courts to restore its version of order using armed men clad in black T-shirts.

The military taking over means that the Parliament or whatever is left of it will not be glorified circus making decisions the military may interpret as causing confusion, which will be overruled by the army for the sake of ‘peace and prosperity.’

Let no one be fooled. The stability of this country is more important to those with money who will do everything to protect their wealth from the threat of destruction by war.

Museveni made that calculation way back when he went to the bush, the young men who are today’s Generals had no money or children to tie them down. The last three decades have seen their wealth grow exponentially many times contrary to their earnings.

This group will do everything to protect that wealth even if it means siding with Museveni in degrading Parliament and turning it into a laughing stock. That is the version of a coup we should expect.
Mr Sengoba is a commentator on political and social issues.

nicholassengoba@yahoo.com