Fire in the palace and what it may mean for both President and king

In restoring the kingdoms and creating new ones, President Yoweri Museveni sought to demonstrate yet again that he was no Milton Obote.

While the Rwenzururu Kingdom is no Buganda, last weekend’s shock and awe strike on the palace and arrest of Omusinga Wesley Mumbere was eerily a back to the future moment.

In 1966 Obote struck Kabaka Muteesa’s palace, driving him into exile and possibly an early death. It was a threshold event that in a way led to the collapse of whatever delicate consensus had been reached at independence in 1962.
Obote consolidated his power, jailed opponents, and refused to hold elections in 1967. It was quick slide from there to the Idi Amin coup in 1971 and the start of a national nightmare.

We wait to see what will happen to Omusinga Mumbere. Whatever it is, it appears this is a key moment as well.
The reasons for the deadly clash can be as many as there are commentators. It looks like the emergence of obudingyaship in Bwamba, an area considered part and parcel of Rwenzururu (itself a separatist movement that somehow morphed into a kingdom), was a kind of last straw with the Omusinga.
Suddenly there was another king in his backyard. The suspicion that the Rwenzururu Kingdom, like Bunyoro farther up in the Albertine Rift, could have oil only fuelled the suspicion of existence of an evil plan to weaken and then cheat the kingdom.

And so the Omusinga decided to go for broke. Maybe it was a wise idea, maybe not. But in allowing himself to be associated with a form of insurrection in July 2014 (killings of police and civilians in the region), in February 2016 (skirmishes in Kasese after elections) and now, he played on President Museveni’s turf of muscular politics. You fire at him he fires back a million times harder — talk of disproportionate reaction. But it is meant to teach an opponent a lesson he will long remember.

Other kingdoms, big and small, must also be watching all this and taking their lessons.
In restoring the old kingdoms and creating a few new ones for political benefit, it appears Mr Museveni overreached and now has to contend with forces he has unleashed.
If Mr Museveni keeps the Omusinga in jail, he will make him a rallying symbol even for those Bakonzo who could care less for the idea of Obusinga bwa Rwenzururu. And with that Mr Museveni and the NRM could forget about winning votes in Bukonzo for several election cycles.

Speaking of elections, it did not help that days to the February 2016 voting, the Omusinga was quoted by Daily Monitor to have said: “Museveni should go back to his home and now that he has refused to retire Ugandans will force him after the elections and I have on several times urged him to retire.”
On its own the statement was remarkable, but that it was uttered while the Omusinga was meeting with Dr Kizza Besigye, Mr Museveni’s arch-opponent in that election like in many previous ones, was all the more interesting.
It is now obvious that the Omusinga was channelling some frustrations he already had with the President.
But even when Mr Museveni frees him quickly, he already has made the Omusinga a more portent symbol for the monarchists.

This is a situation that Omusinga Mumbere could harness, attracting support from the greater Konzo nation both in Uganda and DR Congo in quest of the Yiira Republic. He could yet prove a handful, possibly not under Mr Museveni anymore, but after he has left State House. In this regard the next president has a nice headache waiting for him or her.
That said, things could also get sticky for the king. The anti-monarchist Bakonzo, or even some who are pro, could turn on him, accusing him of bringing not unity and development but death and misery by daring take on the President and his government.
It may also exacerbate, according to Mukonzo journalist Asuman Bisiika, the simmering but low-level tensions between Bakonzo Basongora who have dominated local politics for decades, and Bakonzo Baghendera (of which the Omusinga is one).

Yet all the shooting, cutting and killing need not have happened. Talking, that good old way of resolving sticky issues, could have delivered a result different from blood and tears.
How this ends no one can be sure, not even the key actors — yet more evidence that learning the right lessons from our political history is still elusive even for those who should know better.

Mr Tabaire is the co-founder and director of programmes at African Centre for Media Excellence in Kampala.
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Twitter:@btabaire