DR Congo: Who will take over from current president Kabila?

On Sunday, December 23, 2018, the people of the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to elect a new president. Please note that I have deliberately used the word ‘expected’ instead of ‘will’ or ‘shall’.
With the DR Congo, we treat these things with lots of reserve. The new president may after all not be new; and the elections, like it has happened on two occasions before, may not take place.

You know, when it comes to DR Congo, the gods do not to seem good enough to act with consistency and constancy. But in spite of the failings of the gods, my gut feeling is that the elections will take place.
There are (could be) three main opposition personalities in the December poll all of whom have now been endorsed by their respective political parties.

These are Jean Pierre Bemba Gambo (former vice president), Moise Katumbi Chapwe (former Governor for Katanga Province) and Felix Tshisekedi (political activist and son of veteran politician Etienne Tshisekedi wa Mulumba).
All the three aspiring candidates represent constituencies with dynamics that border on captive clientele. Jean Pierre Bemba represents the old Mobutist nostalgia and its military rebellion to the Kabilas (senior and junior).

Felix Tshisekdi represents the Congolese civil non-violent political activism while Moise Katumbi represents some kind of the angel-you-don’t-know future for the DR Congo.
Moise Katumbi is a very easy-on-the-eye candidate for the international community. Save for the amassment of wealth, he carries less negative political baggage from the past. And since his mother comes from the royal lineage of the Lunda Kingdom, the colour of his skin doesn’t seem to be an issue.

But he will need to tie his personal disposition and foreign sympathy into local sentiments; yes, the local political sentiment always associated with Felix Tshisekedi. And knowing this weakness, he (Moise Katumbi) is said to have met Felix with a view of co-operation (and hinted on sponsoring a single opposition candidate). Bemba has been endorsed by Mouvement pour le Liberation Congolaise (MLC), a political party he founded and under whose flag he ran for president in 2006. Whereas Bemba, Katumbi and Tshisekedi represent strong candidatures, some Congolese still wonder whether president Joseph Kabange Kabila may have something up his sleeve.

It is widely expected that he (Joseph Kabila) may not run as a candidate in the elections. However, the anxiety is over the possible poll rigging for a candidate associated with him. Yet even with his political party’s endorsement, Bemba still has some huddles to clear, failure of which may lead to his non-appearance on the ballot paper.

Bemba’s 18-year sentence for committing war crimes, crimes against humanity, rape and others by the International Criminal Court, was recently overturned by appeal judges of the same court. However, the huddle that could fail his candidature lies in another case in which he was sentenced to one year in jail and fined $350,000 in 2017 for bribing witnesses during his main war crimes trial.

The ICC is due to issue a ruling on this case. And given the time he has already spent in jail, it is likely the ruling will be in favour of his release. But it could take weeks or months before the said ruling is delivered.... Question is, could the ICC deliver the ruling in time for Bemba to beat the nomination deadline of Wednesday, August 8, 2018?
Given Bemba’s situation, the reality of only having two opposition candidates (Katumbi and Tshisekedi) is very manifest. And by the way, the working headline for this piece was: ‘…but president Bemba would jail Kabila’.

Mr Bisiika is the executive editor of East African Flagpost.
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