Lessons from Rukungiri by- election

In 1971, few Ugandans expected Idi Amin Dada and his fellow rebellious soldiers to successfully topple Milton Obote and UPC party from power.
At the time, Obote was actually attending a Commonwealth Summit in Singapore. While there, he was interviewed by the media and he said with confidence, “I am the only African leader who does not fear a coup d’état.”
Obote had good reasons for saying so. He had one of the most powerful armies in Africa led by his fanatical and loyal officers. The same applied to the other security organs. The loyalty was owed to him in person, not as a leader of Uganda and his government.

Many Ugandans believe that the police and UPDF today exhibit the same characteristics. Obote’s government and majority of public officials consisted of UPC diehards who worshipped him. He was sustained in power by ruthless, uncompromising or lying spies and operatives.
He was also admired and trusted by most Africa leaders who regarded him as the founder of the Uganda nation and leader of its liberator from colonialism. His bosom friends included Julius Nyerere of Tanzania, Jomo Kenyatta of Kenya and Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia at the time and later acknowledged statesmen.

The Opposition parties such as Democratic Party, Kabaka Yekka and Conservative Party had been harassed, many of their leaders eliminated one way of the other and others coerced into joining UPC.
Unfortunately for him, and for many leaders, he did not know that what appeared as massive support on the surface did not reflect reality on the ground. Before he left Uganda for Singapore, incidents showing that all was not well with his government had already occurred.

Unexplained daring robberies, political assassinations, one or two ministers privately expressing their displeasure in his government, neglect and diverting necessary funds from crucial sectors of the nation had all occurred.
As the saying goes, “those that the gods wish to destroy, they first make them blind and deaf.” He also forgot that when such small incidents occur and cause disagreements between leaders and their support machine, the whole system of government collapses like a pack of cards which has happened in many other African and foreign countries.

In Kenya, when there was an attempt by the Kenya Air Force to topple president Daniel arap Moi, there was jubilation in most of the country’s towns, and especially Nairobi where Moi was.
When the Kenya army defeated the air force and restored order, many of those who had celebrated, jubilated again in praise of the army for saving Moi and the republic from a coup d’état.
The same acrobatics in the fortunes and misfortunes of public support of our leaders have been witnessed in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Nigeria, Zimbabwe and South Africa.

In consequence, the loss by NRM to FDC in Rukungiri District had nothing or very little to do with the popularities or charisma of the political actors in that by- election. It was not even because of colossal sum of money and property ravished on the population of the district, it is a clear sign that politics in modern Africa are changing rapidly, whether we or our leaders like it or not.
In the 1960s, I was a pupil in a British school when that country’s prime minister, Harold Macmillan, visited apartheid South Africa and remarked, “There is unstoppable wind of change in Africa today,” and within a short time most colonial and the dependant states of Africa fought for and gained independence.

As long as countries such as our Uganda continue struggling with headlines such as that which appeared in Daily Monitor of June 6, headlined, “Thieves hide behind Museveni, says IGG” which added that, Ms Irene Mulyagonja says that the corrupt are powerful and whenever she attempts to pursue them they fight back and often win the fight, Macmillan’s wind of change will continue blowing in Africa.