Museveni’s letter to Kyagulanyi: What are the real issues? Part I

In his letter, President Museveni made eight points. In this first part, I deal with four points.

(1) Museveni wrote: “It is very good when the opponents of the NRM put in writing their views, because there is nothing we cannot answer and there is nothing we cannot address”. The New Vision of January 14, 2013 published Museveni’s two-full page article titled: “The economy has expanded more than 81 times since 1986”. In that article, Museveni wrote that “the size of the economy in 1986 was $246m (about Shs882b)” and that by 2013, Uganda’s “economy was $20b (about Shs72 trillion)”. Elsewhere, Museveni wrote that Uganda’s economy has been growing at 6.6 per cent per year (since 1986). In addition, Uganda’s population was 14 million in 1986 and has been growing by 3.2 per cent per annum. When one computes the GDP growth of $246m (let us round it up to, say $250m, with annual growth of 6.6 per cent, and then compute the population growth and then divide the total annual GDP among the population, the answer is disappointing. It shows that real GDP income per capita in 1986 was only $17.8. It also shows that this year, our real GDP is only $1.8b, while the population is at 38 million, meaning our real GDP income per capita is dollops $47.3 (about Shs170,000). And this explains why Uganda is still one of the poorest and least developed countries.
It is at this point that I want to challenge President Museveni and his NRM intellectuals, since “there is nothing they cannot answer and nothing they cannot address”, to mathematically show Ugandans how our GDP has grown to over $25b in the last 30 years and how they arrive at GDP income per capita of more than $700.

(2) Kyadondo East MP Robert Kyagulanyi is right to say that “our country’s former glory is all gone”. Our current real GDP income per capita of $47 is lower than our $242 GDP income per capita in 1960 and less than Africa’s average GDP income per capita about 200 years ago, which was at $420 in 1820 and $500 in 1870 and $637 in 1913. In fact, by 2040, Uganda’s real GDP income per capita will be only $92.8, talks of becoming a lower middle income by 2020 notwithstanding.
(3) “Even where we under-perform, it is not for lack of knowledge”.

The truth is that it is because of lack of knowledge that interest rate at 24 per cent is more than 20 per cent enforced by the Code of Hammurabi in the Babylonian period about 2,900 years ago. It is because of lack of knowledge that NRM has failed to “Singaporise” Uganda for 30 years.

(4) “Uganda has had peace for the first time in 500 years.” Truth is that Uganda has all along had sectional peace as it is today. There was peace under Milton Obote I (1966-1971) except for the few Buganda Kabaka loyalists like the late Mayanja Nkanji, who feared for their lives. There was peace under Idi Amin (1971-19789) except for those who waged war against his regime. There was peace under Milton Obote II and Gen Tito Okello (1981-1986) except for the people in the Luweero Triangle where Museveni waged a bloody war against the two successive regimes. Even now, there is exclusive peace under NRM (1986-2017).

There is no peace for the bereaving families of those killed by the NRA/UPDF in northern and eastern Uganda, and in Kasese. There is no peace for the families of the murdered women in Wakiso and Entebbe and for the families of the murdered Muslim leaders. There is no peace for thousands of families evicted from their land. There is no peace for the 27.2 million people in 68 per cent of Uganda’s households living below poverty levels. There is no peace for those lacking medicine, food and unable to take their children to school. There is no peace for the 83 per cent of youths who are unemployed. MP Kyakulanyi is right. Uganda is social and economically bleeding. This can be proved statistically.

Mr Sseezi-Cheeye is a journalist
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