No need to celebrate Jinja Municipality East victory

On Thursday evening, Mr Paul Mwiru of the FDC was declared winner of the by-election that pitted almost the entire political Opposition against Mr Igeme Nathan Nabeta of the NRM.
When the final result was declared, the Opposition together with their supporters went into celebrations. Political pundits as well swung into action, peddling what I consider the same old, misguiding analysis that has over the years given birth to the false and deceptive electoral democracy narrative.

But, seriously speaking, is there a reason to celebrate such a victory? How does such a victory impact the demand for electoral reforms and the quest for political change? I do not think we have a reason to celebrate this victory. Here is why.

First and foremost, former prime minister Amama Mbabazi, one of the contenders for presidency in the 2016 elections, contested President Museveni’s win in the courts of law. The courts found that there were several cases of electoral malpractices that undermined the credibility of this election. That, of course, is the third or fourth time Mr Museveni’s win is contested in court. In all those instances, the courts cast a dark shadow on the credibility of these elections.

Secondly, since the end of 2016 general election, the Electoral Commission has conducted more than 20 by-elections. Out of these, the Opposition has only won two i.e. Kyadondo East and now Jinja Municipality East. This statistic is for sure, telling. It calls for serious assessment and reassessment of the strategies that the Opposition has been employing to change the election management landscape in this country.

Thirdly, this is not the first or second by-election that the Opposition has participated in and won. In the recent past, in addition to Jinja East and Kyadondo East, there was Amuru, Luweero, Butamabala, Bugweri, etc. In all these cases, the Opposition was celebrated. Several analyses, deductions and conclusions were made. Hopes were also raised. But after all these, very little progress has been made in extending the frontiers of electoral democracy.

Except in a few cases of by-elections, the NRM regime has continued to steal elections in broad day light without any repercussions. The Opposition only wins in a few isolated instances, mainly, by-elections. In general elections, the Opposition will always win in the traditional Opposition-leaning areas. They do not make inroads in new electoral areas. Consequently, their number, in the case of Parliament, remains the same and in some cases, goes down.

Therefore, in the final analysis, the Opposition continues being trapped in a cycle that does not allow them to make any visible impact on the lives of the people they purport to represent or lead. So, the NRM makes all sorts of obnoxious legislations under the watchful eyes of Opposition legislators without any consequences. Whether it is scrapping the age or term limit from the Constitution, GMO law, etc. Thereafter, the country continues with business as usual.

This cycle must be broken. The Opposition should refuse to settle for less. Yes building a democracy is a long and tedious process. But, it may also take a relatively shorter time depending on the seriousness of the actors. Seriousness in this case basically means mobilisation and organisation. This calls for clear messaging, resource mobilisation, unity of purpose, etc.
As hinted before, organisation also requires that we evaluate and re-evaluate our strategies all the time. This means that we shall always build on what works and jettison what doesn’t. Being flexible and dynamic in the face of changing political environment is also an important ingredient. In this regard, it is important that the political actors put aside all their pecuniary interests in the interest of the struggle.

Enduring 35 years of pain, misery, poverty, hunger, disease, indignity, unemployment, etc. is not a joke. This is the life that our generation knows. We know no other life. Anybody who tells us to wait, does not understand what they are talking about. We refuse to accept the perpetuation of this life of indignity. We won’t settle for crumbs. We want the real meal. We refuse a half a loaf. We want a full loaf. We refuse to be treated like half citizens in the country of our birth. We refuse inconsequential elections.