Uganda starts to feel the pinch of lagging behind

Unlike many countries, which have a legitimate complaint against Trump for his, some say, racist diss of Haiti and other African countries, Uganda has reason to be very grateful to the American government. American aid to Uganda in Trump’s first budget is sliced somewhat to $478 million a drop of about $100 million and with it dozens of programmes funded by the American taxpayer but still quite substantial.
The American taxpayer is the largest contributor to the domestic health budget, distribution of critical drugs like anti-retroviral drugs, food-security systems and early stage interventions in the food and agricultural value chain. Nothing of course comes for free, Uganda remains a focal point for US Department of Defence efforts in the region, a transit point for US and UN interventions into Somalia, the DRC, CAR where the official mission ended last year and other places.
In the more competitive world of trade and investment, Uganda eager to drill oil out of the ground, has rolled out a red carpet to attract investment in the oil sector and constructed roads in the Albertine region. Oil dollars have kept the exchange rate cautiously stable in 2017 although global economic pressures will push up the dollar in 2018 on account of rising interest rates in the United States and an overall much stronger US economy which has now enjoyed four consecutive quarters of expansion in the Trump residency.
In the region, Uganda made a strategic decision to route its pipeline through Tanzania annoying Kenya along the way. Kenya was still smarting from Uganda’s failure to construct its bit of the Standard Gauge Railway to the border without which the economics of extending the train link through western Kenya are very weak.
Western Kenya is still a mostly agricultural country, like Uganda where major activities such as sugarcane, cereals have been under pressure in recent years, forcing Kenya to import both cereal and sugar. Sixty per cent of Kenya’s GDP is concentrated around Nairobi just like 70-80 per cent of Uganda’s GDP is concentrated around Kampala.
An overdue correction in Kigali-Kampala relations in 2017 has raised new security concerns. Over time, the case for separate independent states in Uganda, Rwanda and possibly Burundi is becoming weaker. The three are landlocked, are in a phase of rapid population growth and will rely increasingly on each other for food, labour and energy. Culturally, their epicenter is one major language group that covers Burundi, Rwanda, northern Tanzania and southwestern Uganda. Two decades of relative peace have reopened regional networks which in turn have created an underground railway of sorts of close family, business ties, migrant labor and the concerns of security that grow around them.
There are some interesting things happening. Ugandans in Kisoro are investing in the tourism business in Rwanda. More marriages are cross border. A wedding may start in Mbarara and the final reception is held in Kigali.
The rise of heavily subsidised Rwanda Air flights is starting to rival regional giant Kenya Airways. Little Rwanda Air established connections to London last year and is already a transit ground for European carriers. Fish mongers travel from Kigali to buy farmed fish in Kalangala.
And yes the proverbial stories about flocks of cattle being grazed in Uganda and Tanzania will start to die as land and climate change render this major form of land use impracticable. Already major cattle keepers have begun migrating herds northward into northern Buganda, Teso and Lango.
While we were at that, all three countries decided in one go to start fiddling with their constitutions in 2017. Uganda blasted open their presidential age limit, while returning term limits. Rwanda adjusted their presidential term, simultaneously giving the incumbent a fresh slate to run for two new terms.

Mr Ssemogerere is an Attorney-at-Law and an Advocate. [email protected]