Using seasonal weather forecast and climate information to minimise risk

We need win-win approaches to better manage current climate risks and to build capability to cope with the climate of the future, especially the immediate ones that may come with the just-released forecast.

Weather and climate variability and change have become topical discussions across the globe and in Uganda, experiences of extreme weather events are quite common.

The outlook of our rainfall seasonal extremes as normally characterised by frequent floods witnessed mostly in lowland areas of Teso and landslides in mountainous areas have drawn our attention to the challenges of climate change.

In recent times, the drought conditions across the country, especially in 2005 and 2010, will always remind us of devastation that may result from suppressed rainfall conditions.

Therefore, the seasonal forecast for March to May, which constitutes the first major rainfall season in Uganda, released on February 28, by the Department of Meteorology (DoM) provides an insight into expected rainfall performance and should be used for planning and decision making at all levels.

The results of the released forecast indicate that a near normal to above normal rainfall is very likely in different areas:
• Central, parts of western and the Lake Victoria basin – near normal to above normal rains.
• North eastern and northern parts of eastern Uganda – near normal to above normal
• Northern region – near normal to below normal
• Western region – near normal to above normal
This forecast is likely to impact on highly vulnerable ecosystems, infrastructure, agriculture, energy, water resources, among others.
The forecasts also point to below normal rains, which is likely to have enormous impact on different sectors.

These figures from DoM give probable indications for a 50 per cent chance of above-normal activity, 35 per cent chance of near-normal activity and a 15 per cent chance for below-normal activity.
Put in simpler terms, this means the chance of having near normal/above-normal rains is more than three times the chance of having a below-normal one.

Although the forecast calls for a relatively active rainfall season, in some areas around the Lake Victoria basin, this doesn’t guarantee that devastation due to heavy rains will occur. However, the forecast provides an early warning as to which of the regions are at greatest risk and where the impacts are of paramount importance.

There is plenty of scope highlighted in the forecast and we, therefore, need to brace ourselves for the climate change related risks the vulnerable communities are likely to face due to the changes in weather and climate.

During this period of near normal to above normal rains, households are advised to undertake rain water harvesting where applicable – this does not only guarantee your household water for domestic use but also reduces the amount of runoff that is likely to increase the intensity of floods in the areas of above normal rainfall.

Farmers are also advised to make use of meteorological seasonal forecasts to select appropriate crop variety to grow within the season, Land degradation management, better practices for managing soil (terracing, mulching and crop rotation). All these interventions are clearly highlighted in the National Adaptation Programmes of Action.

But to make these measures as effective as possible, they must be targeted in advance and with a reasonable degree of precision to the places where they will be most needed and are most likely to work.

We need win-win approaches to better manage current climate risks and to build capability to cope with the climate of the future, especially the immediate ones that may come with the just-released forecast.

My hope is that the population embraces these actions in response to the just-released seasonal forecast and other types of climate information so as to feed into emergency networks and early-warning systems currently operating in the Uganda.

Mr Khalid Muwembe, a senior meteorologist, contributed to this article.