Making Uganda’s oil curse “double-double”

Even Parliament (supposed to check Executive power) greatly irritates the President when it tries to see things differently. Ordinary citizens who attempt to demonstrate against the President/government’s position are portrayed as standing only one more mistake from the crime of treason.

This week, either because for some reason he felt obliged to tilt his agenda towards the position of Uganda’s ruling clique, or because his perception was genuinely limited in range, a radio talk show moderator seemed unable to understand that on questions that President Museveni considered really important, a minister – or indeed the entire Cabinet – generally adopted the President’s position.

So the moderator rudely cut off one Ssegirinnya, who was trying to argue that, in oil matters, passing a law that gives near-absolute power to the Energy minister was as good as giving that power to the President, regardless of what was written on paper.

For it should be obvious to anyone who has watched the way political power is exercised in Uganda, and who knows how dear Uganda’s oil is to the President, that it is unlikely any minister can function in that sector unless he or she is tied on a very short leash.

Even Parliament (supposed to check Executive power) greatly irritates the President when it tries to see things differently. Ordinary citizens who attempt to demonstrate against the President/government’s position are portrayed as standing only one more mistake from the crime of treason.

From Chogm 2007, the national identity card or the series of Basajjabalaba deals, we learn that, under NRM rule, a suggestion or demand by the President is generally regarded as unanswerable.

Indeed, the President’s senior officials seem to think it is much safer to abuse his instructions than to question him or not to act at all.

If, say, the President wants a low priority war toy, don’t talk tractors; buy the toy.

Even if you twist the supplier’s arm and pocket a couple of million dollars, it is not as bad as refusing to buy the toy.

And if you are a smart operator who appreciates the hand that feeds you, and at election time remembers that the NRM has no gold mine, no cows and no shamba of its own, I guess you would be encouraged to repeat what you did last time.

The possibility of a backlash from somewhere must be accepted as an occupational hazard. But those who understand the code of loyalty and the unwritten rules of Class-A NRM membership will always be protected and defended by the different arms of the organisation.

If we do not wear blinkers, that is the ethical context in which Uganda’s oil activities will be conducted under the current government, whether those activities are (on paper) controlled by a minister or by a group of people established as an “authority”.

It is just that the President prefers the convenience of only having the minister at his beck and call, while those suspicious of the Executive’s motives are deluded that a special body will stop the demons that already haunt Uganda’s oil industry.

Unfortunately, the recent suspension of aid to Uganda by several European countries because of grand corruption at the Prime Minister’s Office could lead to a drop in investor confidence across the board.

In an environment of increasing uncertainty, President Museveni would instinctively want to have even more control of the oil sector than he enjoys now, and the oil to flow in commercial quantities sooner.

The oil companies would also read the signs of government desperation and probably seek agreements that shield them more firmly against possible economic and political instability; moreover, at a time when the public and some international interest groups are demanding more transparency and pro-citizen oil activity.

You had “pakalast”, which looked like ordinary playful no-change politics. But this is the oil curse “double-double”. You can see how allowing corruption to grow into a monster has brought President Museveni to a very difficult pass.

It is also a reminder that all those other African strongmen who ruined their countries did not plan it that way. Nor were they always less smart than him or less desirous of beating the challenges they encountered.

But what each of them lacked was the presence of mind to recognise the critical moment when the collective vice of his friends became irredeemably stronger than his wisdom.

Allan Tacca is a novelist and socio-political
commentator. altaccaone@gmail.com