Strategic importance of opposition victories in district by-elections

The resounding victory of Salaamu Musumba in Kamuli has rightly generated a lot of fear within the NRM’s highest ranks. This was not just like any other by-election. It was a district by-election comprising several parliamentary constituencies and the President and NRM deployed everything at their disposal and they failed miserably. That she won in every polling station except that of the NRM candidate is a pregnant message. On the same day, we lost in Kween District but NRM is not trumpeting their victory as something even of tactical importance.

This victory, in addition to that of the Kasese Woman MP, are of strategic importance. They mark a turning point in the learning curve of how to win elections characterised by unfavourable conditions, but more importantly, in showing that the NRM/State party (President, ministers, RDCs, security agencies, public funds/assets and public officials) is not invincible and may gradually disintegrate. These victories create confidence and remove fear which is the other asset that intimidates voters, especially in rural areas. I know the plan is to distabilise Musumba and make her fail as chairperson, but the voters already know that she will be actually chair of an NRM administration. So if she fails, it will be NRM that has failed, not Musumba.

The blame game has started and everything to minimise the magnitude of the victory is being said and written. It is said disunity in the NRM is the cause of Musumba’s victory but that is true because a superior organisation causes disunity and confusion among the rank and leadership of the opposing forces and that is what happened. That is as it should be. When I saw Musumba coming to Namboole to vote in the FDC presidential elections, her calm demeanor was evidence that she was already confident that victory was assured. The task now is how to consolidate and organise for 2016 elections.

As we celebrate the Kamuli victory, there are issues relating to the party presidential electoral process that need to be attended to urgently but also correctly. I was in Dar es Salaam most of last week and on coming back, I have checked at the FDC party headquarters whether there is any complaint relating to what has appeared in the media and there is nothing. Two days (November 24) after the Namboole National Delegates Conference, a meeting of the top party leaders and representatives of the former candidates in the presidential elections, chaired by the party chairman, was held at the party headquarters and a number of issues were raised. It was agreed that a process should be put in place, by the party chairman, to handle them was agreed.

However, some other matters not discussed in any forum have arisen, e.g. how long the term of the new president is. I am not sure why this should be an issue as Dr Besigye did not serve his first full term. He was elected in October 2005 and his first five-year term would have continued until 2010 but in February 2009, fresh elections were held for the party president and other offices and they all started new full terms. If in 2009 Besigye had been elected to finish his shortened term by one year, it would mean that he should have been elected for a third time in 2010 for another five year term and this did not happen. If the new president serves up to 2014 to finish Besigye’s term, it would mean that he would be eligible for election for his first term in 2014, meaning that he would be able to stand for the same office three times, that is for a total of two and half terms.

It is clear, therefore, that the party elected a president for a full term of five years and the next major election will be for the party flag bearer and preferably two years before the 2016 elections so that the flag bearer-elect can have the opportunity to put in place the campaign machinery, structures, manifesto, funds and other logistic al arrangements. Once the flag bearer is chosen early, it would make it easier to select all candidates in orphan (where the party has no elected representatives) parliamentary and local government constituencies as well.

Mr Ruzindana is a former IGG and former MP.
a_ruzindana@yahoo.com