For Museveni, Kagame and unsaid reasons they getting so chummy

President Paul Kagame’s newly frequent visits to Uganda are a good thing. That is as it should have been given the close history between the political establishments in Kampala and Kigali. The three bloody clashes between the Ugandan and Rwandan armies in DR Congo between 1999 and 2000, however, soured things. That was quickly followed by angry accusations and counter-accusations over support for rebels and opposition politicians, culminating in Kampala declaring Rwanda an enemy state.

During those acrimonious years, however, Ugandans and Rwandans continued to interact, making merry and money. So many buses crossed the border every day going either way. That many Rwandans were born and bred in Uganda helped.

Because of the many ties that bind, the establishments in Kampala and Kigali were never unanimous in continuing their antagonism. Some senior Rwandan officers began to quietly push back against their colleagues who wanted a hard-line stance against Uganda continued. They thought the quarrel was going on too long. It was time to forgive and move on especially given the Ugandan government’s strong support to them as they fought to return home.

President Kagame acknowledged that support on Thursday in Kapchorwa while attending celebrations to mark NRM’s 26 years in power, which power Mr Museveni assumed with the help of Rwandan fighters in the NRA like Mr Kagame. The Rwandan wananchi appreciate that, which is why on the few occasions President Museveni visited Rwanda when relations were still icy, he always got a very loud cheer.

On the Ugandan side, President Museveni, especially, maintained a cool head. He kept his more adventurous generals in check. He then vigorously supported Rwanda’s applications to join the East African Community and the Commonwealth. When Uganda hosted CHOGM in 2007, he invited President Kagame for nearly a week of lobbying. Mr Museveni’s big-picture outlook must have impressed some across the border. It was time to move on indeed.

As things go, though, no two Presidents get as chummy without some big calculations at work. President Museveni considers himself a master pan-Africanist strategist. His push for faster and deeper regional integration would be less persuasive if he maintained the fight with Rwanda. Besides, he has never denied interest in being the first leader of a politically federated East Africa.

We have also noticed how he is schmoozing with leading Kenyan politicians, hoping that President Kibaki’s successor will look kindly to his regional ambitions. Being on friendly terms all around, Mr Museveni ensures that anyone who wants to run him out of State House finds no base in the region. Having wrestled down stubborn Kony, Gen. Ssabalwanyi is exhausted. He needs some peace.

Only the other day he called for the DR Congo and South Sudan to join the EAC. Having repaired relations with Mr Kagame, we are likely to see him turn his charms on President Joseph Kabila aiming to flush out remnants of the ADF and Kony’s LRA.
Need we add that Mr Museveni will soon have lots of oil and oil products that he must sell to neighbours? His insistence on building a refinery in Uganda is premised on the understanding that the EAC countries will provide a ready market. Speaking of which, a secure and friendly DR Congo will allow Uganda extract the oil in peace, moreover with the added possibility that the two countries could revive the 1990 agreement and jointly develop some oil fields along the common Albertine border.

For Rwanda also, being a member of the EAC means it has to be on good terms with the others. Two, the quiet differences in Kigali, partly over the approach to Uganda, are starting to boil over. Top generals like Kayumba Nyamwasa are fleeing – most through Uganda. Those not lucky, Mr Kagame is locking up.

Fleeing Rwandans these days head to South Africa. Before it was Europe and America. Changes in leadership in Pretoria have something to do with it. President Thabo Mbeki had a warm relationship with President Kagame and a lukewarm one with President Museveni.

It is not easy to characterise President Jacob Zuma’s relationship with President Kagame. It is safe to say, though, that Pretoria seems welcoming of fleeing anti-Kagame officers. Mr Zuma and Mr Museveni enjoy warm ties. Who knows, Mr Kagame could be whispering to Mr Zuma through Mr Museveni to keep the dissidents out?
Whatever the calculations, let’s toast to Uganda’s and Rwanda’s efforts to restore fraternal relations.

Mr Tabaire is a media consultant with the African Centre for Media Excellence.
bentab@hotmail.com