How this Somalia thing is getting trickier for us

By leading the way in providing peacekeeping troops in Mogadishu, and then (reportedly) getting bombed for it in Kampala, Uganda has got itself sucked deeper into the conflict in Somalia.

Uganda cannot leave until there is some order in Somalia. But we do not know at what point the Ugandan government, or more precisely President Museveni, will be satisfied that things are all right in that country. What we keep hearing is that the UPDF is leading the Amisom mission to prop up the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), against hardcore Islamists, so that some political process can begin. Well, Ugandan troops arrived in Mogadishu three years ago and are indeed propping up the government, which in effect is just one of the many competing factions, but no political process is underway. The clan heads and militia heads and whoever else matters are not talking peace amongst themselves and with each other. Parliament has increasingly become dysfunctional. There is no assurance that any serious political process bringing together the various contenders for power will start soon. Meanwhile, al-Shabaab gets nastier.

It is that realisation that had already influenced IGAD members to talk of increasing the troop numbers to support the much-harassed Ugandans and Burundians in Mogadishu. The 7/11 attacks on Kampala, claimed by al-Shabaab, quickly concentrated minds. President Museveni pushed the AU summit in Kampala not only for increase in the numbers of peacekeepers but also for the change of mandate from peacekeeping to peace enforcement. The mandate was not changed. Instead, the peacekeepers were given the green light to strike at al-Shabaab pre-emptively. It will be interesting to see how the commanders go about deciding when to launch pre-emptive strikes. One suspects though that pre-emption is code for peace enforcement – for the Amisom troops to actually actively go after al-Shabaab. For reasons of international politics and sensibilities, the AU, and the UN, could not come out openly to say the mandate was changing to the more robust peace enforcement.

President Museveni, however, did clearly get a pledge to increase the number of peacekeepers. Uganda will add more troops. Guinea and Djibouti will throw in a couple of thousands more between them. Within months the 6,100 Ugandan and Burundian forces will be joined by another 4,000. The AU recognises, however, that it needs 20,000 peacekeepers to do the job. Those ones have not materialised. In any case, the 10,000 soldiers are likely to help add more firepower into the Amisom arsenal. The fighting may very well intensify. To what end?

The al-Shabaab will possibly get gunned into the Indian Ocean. That should allow the TFG to establish undisputed authority over the entire land. That would be a good starting point. The Ugandans and the rest of the Amisom people would leave Somalia at that point. They would claim to have helped create order with one central authority indisputably in charge. If not, they would wait for the TFG, if it is smart enough, to embark on talks with everybody who needs talking to. The politics would have truly started.

If things proceed well, the peacekeepers would then roll their tanks out of town. Failing that, they would await the next stage before packing up. With the talking successful, elections would be held and a new government would emerge. Then our boys would head back to Kampala.

The question is: how long will it take, at the very minimum, for Amisom to ensure a central government strong enough to impose its benevolent will exists in Mogadishu? That is the question Present Museveni needs to answer. It is unlikely, however, that he has an answer. No one has any plausible answer because there is no way of knowing. And, by the way, Amisom having 20,000 soldiers tomorrow is no guarantee that Somalia would be pacified within months. It could take years. That would mean Uganda’s continued stay.

The longer it stays, the more our soldiers get killed by sniper fire, planted bombs or suicide attacks. The more also that Uganda gets hated by more power contenders in Somalia, even if UPDF soldiers continue treating their women and children and providing them with clean water.

President Museveni should know these things better than most. The Tanzanians’ stay in Uganda worsened rather than improved our lot. Different armed groups picked guns and headed into the wild. Mr Museveni’s group outgunned all and established itself as the undisputed victor. That helped. Ultimately, it will be the Somalis themselves to work something out. So the President should provide a timeline for the UPDF, may be not Amisom, withdrawal.

That will force the TFG and others to do what they have to do to start real work to revive Somalia. Otherwise, the UPDF could be holed up there forever. It does not have to.

Mr Tabaire is a media trainer and consultant with the African Centre for Media Excellence
bentab@hotmail.com