Let us all calm down, there is still good life without oil

Others within the government just about ignored them, assuring them how they must be joking, talking about the potential of Uganda having serious oil.

In the beginning a small band of geoscientists dug up rocks in quiet but determined obscurity – inadequate money, inadequate equipment, inadequate personnel.

Others within the government just about ignored them, assuring them how they must be joking, talking about the potential of Uganda having serious oil.

The local naysayers’ lack of belief in their fellow Ugandans’ competence hurt even more than the dismissive treatment they received from some of the world’s heavy-hitting geologists, who declared the Albertine too young a basin to have oil.

It turns out the Ugandan scientists were right. One of them, the redoubtable Reuben Kashambuzi, tells the tale nicely in his 2010 book, A Matter of Faith. It is a book every shouting MP should buy and read.

It is because our guys – Kaliisa (yes, Kabagambe), Kashambuzi, Rubondo, Malinga, Kasande, Kabanda – were right that we have some of the world’s leading oil companies such as Total in Uganda. Other super majors are reportedly rubbing their hands together, waiting to oil them here.

But the excitement oil has spawned amongst sections of Ugandans is a little unseemly. It would appear as if our “national life” begins and ends with it. Far from it.
In any event, we have pretensions to democracy.

So let all voices be heard. It is better we fight the ugly fight today before the first barrel of commercial oil leaves the ground for the refinery or directly for the international market. Imagine having these fights as oil is being exported and the dollars pouring in by the day.

It is not to say all the “issues” will be resolved by the time that first barrel comes out of the ground, whenever that is. It is my guess that at that point and on, there will be less acrimony. That assumes, largely, that the present standoff between the Executive and the Legislature leads to compromise – and consensus – that holds in the decades ahead.

Both sides should use the current suspension of Parliament profitably. The fight over the actual role that the minister in charge of petroleum should play, which she does on behalf of the President, is a principled one. It is also one that brings a whole host of issues into focus.

The first is the power the presidency/Executive has and how that power is discharged, and what checks and balances the Legislature can bring to bear.

The second is the regard the current crop of MPs has for the Executive. Some MPs just do not trust President Museveni’s government to do the correct thing and are ready to demonstrate it. Just as well. Oil is a resource that promises deep and wide changes for Uganda.

So cool heads should prevail in this period when Parliament is on katebe following last Tuesday’s cacophony in the plenary.

The Executive and Legislature must meet each other somewhere in the middle. Parliament speaks of checks and balances – but there will be no power to check or balance to provide if the Executive has no power to exercise. The reverse is true.

Before the Tuesday mayhem, a neat arrangement had been reached: on licensing, the envisaged Petroleum Authority of Uganda licenses and the minister endorses. If dissatisfied, consultations occur. On contracts, the minister negotiates but Parliament endorses. If otherwise, more work is done.

President Museveni does not like this framework. He wants full powers to license oil companies and enter agreements with them without input from MPs or anybody else. Parliament, vastly dominated by his own party, is saying: No, Mr President.

Mr Museveni has himself to blame. From a towering figure who once had carte blanche to act, he has worked his way into a diminished leader even before his mostly careerist party MPs.

It is the widespread corruption and incompetence of his government that have brought all theheadache. Since the return of presidential elections in 1996, President Museveni has been almost entirely preoccupied with getting votes than running the country.

Pursuit of that one ruthless goal has muddied elections, making them more violent and more monetised starting from within the NRM itself. All this stuff has damaged the NRM and Museveni brand. Some NRM MPs are thus acting to distance themselves from party and leader, hoping to remain relevant in a post-Museveni era.

To regain a bit of his footing and relevance, Mr Museveni will have to accept reduced powers in instances such as oil sector management. And he will have to stop the thieves. And he will have to fill Kampala’s potholes.

A government that cannot fix potholes and pick up the garbage cannot possibly do anything else right.

What we may see during this period of suspension of Parliament, however, is President Museveni meeting small groups of MPs at night. He may well get his way, but one wonders what those geoscientists in Entebbe – whom he worked hard to support when he chose to – and the people of Uganda will make of it all as the years roll by, the oil rolls out, and the dollars roll in.

Mr Tabaire is a media consultant with the African Centre for Media Excellence. bentab@hotmail.com